In this piece, I highlight tight ends that stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
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Top NFL DFS Tight End Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are three tight ends near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Travis Kelce
- Mark Andrews
- Dawson Knox
We’ll discuss why these three are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other tight ends.
Top Model NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Travis Kelce ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (48 total)
Despite having a relatively modest season by his standards, Travis Kelce still is practically lapping the tight end position. Since returning in Week 2, Kelce has a healthy 25% of team targets with a massive 31.9% target rate per route run.
The Chargers have allowed the eighth-fewest DraftKings points to opposing tight ends on the year, as Derwin James is a stingy matchup for opposing tight ends. The Chargers haven’t seen a tight end of Kelce’s caliber yet, as he will be their biggest test.
Kelce’s matchup is unmatched at the tight end position, and we could finally see the vintage 30-point performance that we’ve been awaiting. He’s the top option in our Tournament Model.
Mark Andrews ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel): Baltimore Ravens (-3) vs. Detroit Lions (43 total)
Mark Andrews had a modest showing across the pond, catching four of six targets for 69 yards. He gets a nice matchup here, with Detroit allowing the third-most receptions per game to tight ends while ranking in the bottom third of the league in catch rate and yards per target allowed.
Andrews has a healthy target rate against zone coverage, and Detroit plays zone on nearly 70% of their defensive snaps. He also has a great red zone role, with a 27.8% target share inside the 20.
He trails just Kelce in ceiling projection, as he’s the next best bet to blow the position away. His role is very strong for his price, as he’s the top option in our Cash Game Model.
Dawson Knox ($2,900 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (-8.5) at New England Patriots (40 total)
Dawson Knox has had identical stat lines in back-to-back contests, catching three of six targets for 17 yards. We had hoped for more production with Dalton Kincaid. He did run a route on 72% of the dropbacks, which was promising.
This is more of a bet on the offense overall. Buffalo should see success against New England. and Knox is cheap with a prominent red zone role. New England has gotten gashed by opposing tight ends, allowing the seventh-most yards per target.
Knox has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate and is a cheap way to get exposure to a prominent offense. He’s the top tight end in Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon’s Pro Models.
Other Notable NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Michael Mayer ($2,700 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel): Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) at Chicago Bears (37.5 total)
Michael Mayer has seen a usage bump the past two weeks, running a route on 45% and then 67% of dropbacks. He saw great usage as well, catching five of six targets for 75 yards last week.
We’ve also seen the Bears allow solid scores to Logan Thomas (9-77-1) and T.J. Hockenson (6-50-0). Luke Musgrave (3-50-0) had a modest stat line but was missed wide open for a touchdown in Week 1.
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My Favorite NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick(s)
Luke Musgrave ($3,300 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel): Green Bay Packers (-1.5) at Denver Broncos (45 total)
Luke Musgrave will certainly see ownership, but he’s cheap and plays a prominent role on a Packers offense that I’m extremely high on this week.
He saw seven targets last week, catching six balls for 34 yards. Musgrave left Week 4 with a concussion early but has now seen eight and seven targets in his last two full games.
He gets a prime matchup against Denver, who has allowed the highest catch rate and yards per target to opposing tight ends. He also makes for a cheap stacking partner with Jordan Love, leaving you the salary to jam in studs across the rest of your lineup.
He’ll certainly be high-owned, but there’s a lot of merit to Luke Musgrave this week.
