Neither the Buffalo Bills nor the New York Giants have rekindled their playoff standards from last season. Buffalo is 3-2 to open the campaign, falling off the pace in the AFC East. Still, that’s light years ahead of what we’ve seen from the Giants, who have stumbled to a disastrous 1-4 start. That sets the stage for a crucial interconference showdown, in what could be a turning point for either team as they look to recapture their playoff forms.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are — and you can see more projection picks here.
Also, you can claim a $100 deposit match at Betr using Betr Picks promo code LABSMAX, and you can use Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for another $100 deposit match.
And check out our PrizePicks referral code or Underdog Fantasy promo code for more details.
Giants-Bills NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Josh Allen Lower 6.0 Rushing Attempts
The Bills have amended their offensive strategy, and it’s paying dividends to start the season. Buffalo has dialed down its passing plays, relying more on the ground game to beat its opponents into submission. The end result is improved scoring and time of possession, which should yield more positive results in the long run.
One of the unintended consequences of rushing the ball more is that Josh Allen is carrying the ball less frequently. It may sound counterintuitive, but with fewer passing plays being called, Allen isn’t taking off on impromptu runs on broken plays as often. His rush attempts per game dropped from 7.8 last year to just 4.0 through the first five games of the season. That downward trend should continue against the Giants.
Opponents are having their way with the Giants, resulting in less reliance on quarterbacks to get yards with their legs. Collectively, opposing quarterbacks have combined to take off 11 times, with Brock Purdy setting the high mark with four rushing attempts. Otherwise, three of the five QBs have had two or fewer carries.
As implied by the -14.5 spread, the Bills are expected to run away with this one; however, the onus won’t be on Josh Allen. A steady stream of James Cook and Damien Harris carries should be enough to help Buffalo run out the clock and clinch victory against the Giants.
James Cook Higher 79.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
James Cook has had varying degrees of success this season. Through five games, the Bills running back has ranged from 21 rushing + receiving yards up to 159. But with Cook coming off his worst outing of the season, he’s poised for a decisive bounceback game against a porous Giants defense.
So far this season, Cook has been an offensive sparkplug for the Bills. The second-year pro has started all five games, leading the team in rush attempts and touches, with his 75 touches nearly doubling the next closest player’s. Moreover, Cook sits second on the team in total yards and third in catch rate among pass catchers with at least 15 targets.
Cook has responded exceptionally well to the increased workload. Growing pains are an inevitable part of getting a young running back acclimated to the rigors of the pro game. Still, statistically speaking, Cook is a prime progression candidate. He posted the worst outing of his campaign last week, well below his typical averages and ranges for what we’ve seen from him in 2023.
The Giants sit in the bottom half of the league in passing and rushing defense, combining for the sixth-worst total defense. Cook has a big game in store, and he should exceed 79.5 total yards in prime time.
Darren Waller Higher 39.5 Receiving Yards
There has been a stunning lack of production in the Giants passing game. New York ranks second-to-last in passing yards per game, accumulating a laughable 163.0 per game. Worse, their metrics look even more pathetic when we break things down by yards per pass attempt, with the Giants mustering just 5.9. Still, they would be in a much worse spot if not for Darren Waller.
The Giants tight end leads the team in every receiving category. Waller has 10 more targets than the next closest pass catcher, seven more catches, and 72 more yards. Further, he could take on a more prominent role with Tyrod Taylor operating the offense. Taylor hasn’t started a game since Week 12 of the 2021 season. As such, he’ll need a big target and calming presence to help him find his footing against a fierce Bills pass rush.
Additionally, teams are trying to get their tight ends passes against the Bills defense. Tight ends have led their teams in targets in two of the last three weeks against the Bills, with Evan Engram, Durham Smythe, and Cole Turner combining for 19 targets over that stretch.
Once again, Waller will be a primary target in the Giants passing game, and he should have no problems producing against a beatable Bills secondary. Buffalo has given up at least 282 passing yards in each of the last two games, with tight ends being a prominent part of those attacks.
The Giants might not reach the same heights as the teams before them, but Waller will continue to absorb most of the workload. We like him to go higher than 39.5 receiving yards.
