This matchup looked far more appealing heading into the year, but the Giants have disappointed and are ravaged by injuries. Regardless, there’s money to be won. New York is traveling to Buffalo to play the Bills at 8:20 p.m. ET. The Bills are listed as 15.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 44 points.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Josh Allen leads the way on this showdown slate. He racked up the points last week against Jacksonville, finishing with 31.76 DraftKings points. He found the end zone on the ground for the third straight week.
This New York defense blitzes heavily, ranking second in the league in blitz rate. Allen has shredded the blitz, ranking fifth in the league in yards per attempt. As a whole this Giants’ defense isn’t intimidating, allowing the seventh-most yards per attempt. He’s the top overall play on the slate, unsurprisingly.
A trip across the pond had no effect on Stefon Diggs, as he caught eight of 11 targets for 121 yards and a touchdown. He’s scored fewer than 20 DraftKings points in just one game all year, with massive totals of 28.1, 39, and 29.1. Diggs has seen 40.5% of the targets when Allen is blitzed, averaging 4.7 yards per route run.
Saquon Barkley is currently listed as questionable, but the Giants are optimistic that he’ll play. His role has been elite, and the Giants offense has been reliant on him. He’s intriguing in tournaments, as his high price tag will likely scare people off, and the Bills’ studs project better in the same price range.
It’s a tough matchup as a heavy road underdog, but Barkley is intriguing for tournaments, as Buffalo has given up some explosive runs.
With Daniel Jones out, Tyrod Taylor will return to Buffalo to face his old team. He’s playing behind a poor offensive line in a hostile environment, but Buffalo’s defense has suffered some key injuries. Tre’Davious White and Matt Milano are both sidelined, and they are two of the most important pieces on Buffalo’s defense.
Regardless, this is a tough spot, and it’s hard to get too optimistic about Taylor’s outlook. He’s still on the radar as a quarterback on a single-game slate, but he’s not my preferred option in the top tier.
James Cook hasn’t seen much efficiency on the ground recently, taking 17 carries for 25 yards over the past two weeks. He’s maintained a solid role through the air, catching three of four targets last week for 25 yards. He is ceding a lot of backfield work, with just 56.7% of the backfield touches over the past four weeks.
This is a dream matchup for Cook, as the Giants have allowed the third-most yards per carry and second-most explosive runs. If ownership follows, I’ll probably hold my nose and avoid Cook. It’s hard to poke holes in the matchup though.
NFL DFS Mid-range Picks
Gabe Davis has found the end zone in four straight contests, and he put up 25 DraftKings points last week against Jacksonville. He’s only seen a 15.2% target share when Allen is blitzed, and he’s only seen more than four targets in two games. He’s priced fairly, and he makes a lot of sense in tournaments if his ownership stays in check. If he’s projecting to be high-owned, there are easy reasons to fade.
Darren Waller is questionable with a groin injury, but he’s expected to suit up. Buffalo has shut down opposing tight ends, allowing just 5.8 yards per target. With Matt Milano sidelined, the matchup definitely becomes easier. Waller leads the team in target share and is definitely the top pass catcher in this offense.
Isaiah Hodgins is far too expensive for his role, and he’s completely off of my radar. Darius Slayton led the team in routes run last week, making him an appealing option. He hasn’t had much production yet, but New York will likely have to throw a lot to keep up with Buffalo, and Slayton could benefit.
Wan’Dale Robinson is my favorite of the Giants’ pass catchers, and he’s underpriced in my opinion. He caught five of six targets for 18 yards last week before leaving with a knee injury. He doesn’t have an injury designation for this matchup. Robinson could rack up the underneath catches in a comeback effort.
Matt Breida becomes an enticing option if Barkley were to sit, but would be a tough click if Barkley were to suit up. His pass-catching role and early-down work make him a solid option if he were to be the starter.
It’s worth monitoring the statuses of Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid, as they’re both questionable. Knox is expected to play with a wrist injury, but Kincaid needs to clear concussion protocol. I have some interest in Knox if Kincaid were to miss, but I’m not extremely excited about this tandem if they both suit up.
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NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them. Given the expected low-scoring nature, these options should be even more viable than usual. The Bills’ defense is priced up, but they’ll likely see high ownership against this battered New York squad.
- Latavius Murray ($3,600 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): We could see Buffalo pound the rock if they get a lead tonight, which could lead to a heavy dose of Latavius Murray. He has a goal-line role already, so there are worse places you can go with Buffalo as a huge favorite.
- Jalin Hyatt ($1,200 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Hyatt was second on the team in routes last week, but he didn’t see a single target. It’s a scary spot with Tyrod Taylor under center, but Hyatt profiles as a solid salary-relief option.
- Trent Sherfield ($200 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel): If looking for a total punt, Sherfield profiles as a solid option. He played the third most snaps at receiver behind Diggs and Davis last week, catching one ball for three yards. He’s seen seven targets over the past three weeks, so there are worse places you can go.
