Just two teams on bye this week, but another game in Europe means we have an 11-game NFL Week 6 main slate starting at 1 p.m. ET. None of those games have a total above 48.5, so it should be a lower-scoring week overall, but let’s find some spots that can still provide big fantasy numbers.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud
The consensus leaders in our projections and those around the industry are Jalen Hurts ($8,300) and Tua Tagovailoa ($7,600). While both are solid plays who are highly likely to top 20 points on DraftKings, it’s hard to see either putting up a “have to have it” score relative to their salaries.
Hurts is taking on a tough Jets defense that has held opposing quarterbacks to a Plus/Minus of -7.8 on the season. That’s partially due to their defensive abilities, with the other part relying on the Jets’ offensive failure to drive the score up and make their opponents attack.
It’s a similar situation for Tua and the Dolphins. They take on a Panthers team that ranks 32nd in DVOA against the run and are implied for just 16.75 points. The passing attack will get theirs at some point, but it’s hard to see how this turns into a four-touchdown performance from Tagovailoa.
Instead, I’m targeting Justin Fields ($7,300) at the top(ish) of the QB price range. After a bad start to the season, he’s coming off consecutive 30+ point performances — despite not recording a rushing touchdown. His ceiling is even higher than that if he can combine his newfound passing efficacy with some more production with his legs.
It’s also an excellent matchup against a below-average Vikings defense. Minnesota is bottom-five (on the slate) in Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to QBs this season. It’s also a near-ideal game flow, with Vegas making the Bears slight underdogs at home. This should stay close enough for the Bears to remain aggressive deep into the game.
Fields isn’t perfect of course, as he’s been very inconsistent as a passer. However, he’s right in the sweet spot of upside, game environment, and salary to be a strong DFS option this week.
Value
You can’t get any cheaper than Gardner Minshew ($5,000), who’s priced at nearly the minimum for quarterbacks this week in relief of Anthony Richardson for the Colts. Perhaps the best backup in the league, Minshew has been a solid real-life quarterback in relief this season, even without doing much from a fantasy standpoint.
He’ll get a full game to remedy that against his former team, Jacksonville, in Week 6. The Jaguars are returning from their fortnight in London, where they picked up two wins. It’s insane that the NFL doesn’t schedule bye weeks for teams returning from Europe, but rostering players against them is a potential edge.
The Colts have the second-lowest pass rate over expectation (PROE) in the league this season, but much of that is due to Richardson’s abilities on the ground. In Minshew’s only start this season, he attempted 44 passes and should see a similarly high pass rate this week. The overall play volume is unlikely to be as high, but even 35 or so attempts are more than enough for his price tag.
He has some sneaky upside against a pass-funnel Jags defense in what could be a fast-paced game. Both teams rank inside the top seven in situation-neutral pace so far this season. Still, most of my interest in Minshew (and budget QBs in general) is for cash games, where the salary savings unlocks tons of options at other positions.
Quick Hits
The Cardinals-Rams game has the highest total on the slate, making both Josh Dobbs ($5,200) and Matthew Stafford ($6,100) both intriguing options. Stafford is obviously the far superior passer and has his full complement of weapons back, plus the Rams are implied for 28 of the 48 points in the total. However, his salary has started to creep past the point of comfort for a quarterback who hasn’t topped 21 points all season.
Dobbs is an interesting pivot from Minshew. The Cardinals are just slightly above the Colts in PROE on the season, but with starting running back James Conner on injured reserve and the negative game script, he should see plenty of dropbacks. He also offers more with his legs, topping 40 yards rushing in three of his five games this season. He’s topped 23 DraftKings points in half of the Cardinals’ losses this season, making him a solid play for cash games and GPPs alike.
The Seahawks have already had two of their four games top 60 points scored this season, thanks to their solid play on offense and 25th-ranked passing defense. They’re facing the Bengals this week, who looked much better offensively last week with Joe Burrow ($6,300) close to fully recovered from a preseason calf injury. I’m more interested in the Cincinnati passing attack than Seattle’s, but Geno Smith ($5,700) is worth a look as well in GPPs.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud
I’m probably not getting up to Christian McCaffrey ($9,500) much this week. He’s the most expensive player on the slate, and his salary is more than $2,000 more than the next most expensive running back. He’ll still probably have a solid day, but it’s a tough matchup with the Browns.
There are two backs in the $7,000 range with similar workloads and far superior matchups — even if they don’t have McCaffrey’s talent. That’s David Montgomery ($7,300) and Travis Etienne ($7,100).
The Lions will again be without rookie Jahmyr Gibbs, and they’ll be happy to feed D-Mont in his absence. Montgomery saw “only” 19 carries last week but handled 32 in Week 4. He added an additional 8 targets in Week 5 and has six touchdowns and two hundred-yard bonuses through four healthy games this season. With Detroit favored against the Bucs and an excellent offensive line matchup, he’s in another great spot.
From a workload standpoint, it doesn’t get much better than Etienne. Jacksonville has committed to him as an RB1, giving him at least 23 opportunities (targets+carries) in every game except the Week 2 loss against the Chiefs, where the Jags scored just nine points.
Of the two, I’m prioritizing Montgomery in cash games and smaller field contests. However, it’s a 1A and 1B situation, and I’d love to play them both wherever possible.
Value
The best value running back this week will likely be the last man standing in the Bears’ backfield. Last week, Khalil Herbert went down with a high ankle sprain, while Roschon Johnson also left the game due to an injury. Johnson has been ruled out for Week 6, leaving third-string back Travis Homer ($4,500), who also left early with an injury in Week 5. Homer is more of a 3rd down/change of pace back anyway, but it still adds to the confusion. My best guess for the RB1 is D’Onta Foreman ($4,400). Foreman has been a healthy scratch most of the season, which isn’t a great sign — but at least he’s fresh?
Regardless, this is a situation worth monitoring, as whoever emerges will likely end up with the best Pts/Sal projection at the position on the slate. Fortunately, the Bears and Vikings play during the early window, so we’ll have time to adjust rosters. Keep an eye on our NFL newsfeed Sunday morning when inactives are announced, and proceed from there.
Additionally, Emari Demercado ($4,900) seems to be next in line for a starter’s workload in Arizona with James Conner out. He’s a bit more expensive than the Bears’ backs, and the game script is worse — but it’s a better matchup, and Arizona leans more run-heavy than the Bears, so he’s worth a look as well.
Quick Hits
With fantasy hero De’Von Achane also on the IR, the backfield in Miami once again belongs to Raheem Mostert ($6,400). With preseason starter Jeff Wilson ruled out, Mostert should see the bulk of the looks in Miami for at least one more week. That’s huge in an explosive Dolphins offense taking on the league’s worst rushing defense.
I’m off CMC for tighter builds, but he’s still worth considering for larger field GPPs. He’s scored at least one touchdown in every game with the 49ers, including eight through five games this season. It’s fairly unlikely he ends up with a score that makes you regret fading him at his price, but he can pop up for the occasional 40+ point outburst regardless of matchup.
Josh Jacobs ($7,000) quietly leads the NFL in target share at running back, slightly eclipsing McCaffrey. He also has at least 17 touches in four of the Raiders’ five games. The Patriots are still a fairly tough defense, but his receiving role gives him a solid floor, and his goal-line work gives him a nice ceiling. He’s a solid tournament pivot from Montgomery and Etienne.
Another back who gets his looks regardless of the scoreboard is Alvin Kamara ($6,800). Since returning from suspension, he has 25 opportunities in both games. In the Saints’ blowout loss, he saw 11 carries and 14 targets. In their win, he had 22 carries and three targets. We’d prefer the former on full-PPR DraftKings, though it could go either way with the Saints as 1.5-point favorites. He has the best matchup on the slate in terms of Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to the position and is my favorite tournament pivot in Week 6.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud
This is an easy one. Ja’Marr Chase ($8,300) finally looked like the top-two fantasy pick he was this offseason in Week 5, turning an absurd 19 targets into a 15/192/3 receiving line or 55.20 DraftKings points. While we can’t bank on getting those numbers from him again, he’s still in a strong spot this week.
The Bengals surely have realized their best hope is moving the ball through Chase. The running game has been bad this season, and fellow receiver Tee Higgins ($6,400) will either be out or limited. Chase is too talented not to force-feed targets, and Joe Burrow ($6,300) is closer to full strength after the preseason calf injury that’s hampered him all season.
The Bengals are taking on one of the starkest pass-funnel defenses in the league in the Seahawks. Seattle ranks 2nd in DVOA against the run but 25th against the pass, making this an excellent matchup for Chase. His earlier duds have him priced a bit below the other top options on the slate, making him a near-lock for cash games and smaller-field contests.
Value
Robert Woods ($3,800) is priced as the Texans’ WR3 this week. This is interesting because he leads the team in total targets and target share this season. He’s seen 40 targets through five weeks, including at least six in every contest.
The competition for the ball should be even thinner this week in Houston. Tank Dell has seen 28 targets on the year but will miss Week 6. We’ll be bumping Woods’ projection up shortly to account for the news on Dell.
“Bobby Trees” has a fairly low average depth of target (aDOT) of 9.18. Coupled with his lack of touchdowns, that limits his upside a bit. We don’t need a big ceiling at his price tag, though, and he should be a bit more involved in the red zone without Dell.
Players with a 20% or better target share and sub-$4,000 salary have historically had far more upside than their ownership would indicate while smashing salary-based expectations, per our Trends tool:
Filtered for receivers with a 20% or greater target share
Quick Hits
The only wideout projecting for a higher score than Chase this week is Tyreek Hill ($9,300). The extra salary is too much to pay in cash games, but he could be worth paying up for in GPPs. Hill has alternated games of 33+ DraftKings points with 15 or fewer, and his scores have little correlation to the game flow. In theory, this is a better matchup for the Dolphins on the ground, but another explosion for Hill wouldn’t be a surprise either.
Cooper Kupp ($9,000) didn’t miss a beat, drawing 12 targets in his return from the IR last week. He’ll probably be a bit more sensitive to the game flow in a suddenly crowded receiving corps for the Rams. That makes this a tougher spot for Kupp, with LA favored by a touchdown. If getting to Kupp, I’d make sure to pair him with a Cardinals piece, as he needs the Cardinals to push the scoring to have a true ceiling game (relative to his price tag.)
Marquise Brown ($5,300) is one such option. He has a top-12 target share in the league but is priced like a standard WR2. Arizona should have some success against the Rams’ 22nd-ranked passing defense by DVOA, and Brown has 3xd his Week 6 salary in four straight games. That’s despite tougher matchups with the Cowboys and 49ers.
One lesson I (re)learned last week was that a receiver going down doesn’t automatically elevate the wideouts behind him up one spot in the pecking order. Instead, many teams have a direct backup who runs similar routes and fills in for the injured player. For the Bengals, that’s Trenton Irwin ($3,300), who stepped into the Tee Higgins role last week. He saw 10 targets last week, catching eight for 60 yards. His ownership remained low enough that his price hardly moved, so he’s a good play again if Higgins misses.
Another example of that is KJ Osborn ($4,400) for the Vikings. While his talent is debatable, the Vikings seem committed to plugging him into a scaled-down version of Jefferson’s role while leaving Jordan Addison’s ($5,700) essentially unchanged.
Here’s The Athletic on #Vikings trying to replace Justin Jefferson (IR, hamstring).
I know this sounds crazy, but replacing JJeff with KJ Osborn is unlikely to go well. It’s time to feature Jordan Addison. pic.twitter.com/zwfqLFmuPJ
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) October 10, 2023
Addison will likely see a slightly larger share of the targets without Jefferson, but Osborn is getting the bigger bump.
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NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud
Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews aren’t on the Week 6 main slate, and we’ve adjusted the projection down on Sam Laporta ($5,600) thanks to the return of Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,700) soaking up targets for the Lions. That leaves TJ Hockenson ($6,600) as the somewhat clear top option in Minnesota.
His routes differ enough from those run by Jefferson (unlike Laporta and St. Brown, who work similar areas of the field) that he won’t see a massive boost in this game. Still, with Osborn unlikely to get open at a similar rate, Hockenson should see an extra target or two as the second or third read on Kirk Cousins ($7,100) dropbacks.
With an average of just under eight targets per game so far, that means 10 targets is well within the range of outcomes for Hockenson. His red zone role should increase as well — which is good because he needs at least one touchdown to justify his slate-leading salary.
Value
You already know it’s Zach Ertz ($3,600). The least athletic man in football (citation needed) leads all NFL tight ends in target share at 22.52% while turning those looks into roughly half as many yards as Laporta on three more total targets.
His lack of ceiling has led to his salary staying near the budget end of things, with a high-water mark of just 11.60 points on the season. That obviously makes him a tough sell for GPPs — especially at high ownership — but he’s a near-lock for cash on a bad week for tight end.
I’ll never be excited to click his name — even in cash games — but the gap in projection between him and the top options is way closer than the gap in salary. Don’t overthink this one — play him in cash, fade him in GPPs of all sizes.
Quick Hits
We have Evan Engram ($4,500) projected between Hockenson and Laporta, despite a considerably lower salary in Week 6. He ranks 8th in PPR points among tight ends despite having yet to find the end zone, a somewhat fluky occurrence that should mostly even out over the course of the season. He’s effectively sharing No. 2 receiver duties with Calvin Ridley ($6,700) for the Jags offense behind Christian Kirk ($5,400). It’s a good spot in a fast-paced game against the Colts, making him an excellent GPP option.
Tyler Higbee ($4,000) is another option in the uncomfortable salary range at tight end. Most lineups are built around paying all the way up at the position or all the way down. Higbee could be the odd man out for the Rams with Kupp back, but it’s a solid matchup, and he’s a touchdown away from a potential week-winning score.
Finally, Logan Thomas ($3,500) is my preferred Ertz pivot in the cheaper salary range. His target share is a considerable step below the other players mentioned, but his yards per catch is in the Kelce and Laporta range. Atlanta has the highest Opponent Plus/Minus allowed at tight end, a stat that tends to be more correlated at tight end than other positions:
GPP Roster Construction
It’s a pretty wide open week for GPPs, with no game standing out above the rest as the one to target. Similarly, no quarterback is projecting over 12% ownership, with Stafford leading the way at 11.70%.
I like the idea of building around Stafford, though stacks are fairly difficult with his top two receivers combined for $17,000 in salary. It’s fairly unlikely they both provide week-winning scores together, but it’s a difficult decision to make between them. If wanting to attack that game, there’s also a case that Stafford naked with a Cardinal or two makes more sense. If Stafford spreads the ball around, he could post a big score without Kupp or Nacua living up to their massive salaries.
The Dolphins have the highest total on the slate but with the game expected to be a blowout. That makes it hard for a true ceiling game for Tua, whose best game this season is “just” 32.14 points. That would obviously be a solid score, but more mobile quarterbacks can top that score easily at a cheaper price tag — Justin Fields has done it twice this season.
My preferred way to build is at the mid-range in quarterback, with Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence ($6,500) standing out. They rank 3rd and 4th (respectively) in implied total this week. Both teams are also top ten in PROE on the season. More importantly, they have more accessible stacking options.
The Burrow to Chase single stack will be justifiably popular this week, but we can make it a bit more unique by including Trent Irwin or Joe Mixon ($6,300). I’m not a fan of Mixon in a vacuum, but a game where the Bengals build a lead through Chase and then pound the rock is extremely plausible.
On the Jaguars’ side, they have three players with at least a 20% target share (Kirk, Ridley, and Engram). It might be the fastest game of the week, so mixing and matching any two of those players — or one and Etienne — with a Colts bringback is in play. That setup will be the bulk of my multi-entry rosters this week.
At running back, injuries have made Montgomery and Mostert both extremely strong plays. Montgomery gets overlooked a bit for GPPs, but he has a three-touchdown game already this year. I’ll likely have at least one of the two in all my rosters this week.
I’m also fine with playing three running backs in GPPs, as those two project well and could be paired with one of the budget options (Demercado and whoever projects well for the Bears). I prefer those cheaper backs to most of the similarly priced wide receivers this week.
Outside of stacks, my favorite wideouts are Woods, Osborn, and Hollywood Brown. I’ll be also looking to work in the Colts’ Josh Downs ($4,100), and Brandon Aiyuk ($6,100) of the 49ers. I don’t have strong feelings about many of the other players at the position, though, and am happy to decide based on the remaining salary in lineups I’m otherwise happy with.
In tight end, it’s anyone but Ertz this week. His ceiling doesn’t justify his salary or ownership for tournaments. I’m going out of my way to target the $4,000 range at the position but will mix and match otherwise.
Finally, most of the defenses this week are priced appropriately for their projection. As always, we’re ideally able to spread our exposure to a variety of units. I’d like to spend up for San Francisco ($4,000) in at least a few lineups, though. With Deshaun Watson out for the Browns, the sky is the limit for the 49ers.
Cash Games
The only true “must plays” for me this week in cash are Montgomery and Chase, for reasons we’ve discussed at length. One of Etienne and Mostert is pretty close to a lock too — but all the value at the position makes it a little less certain.
I’m not sure if there’s really a wrong way to go at quarterback. Spending up for Fields or Tua is probably fine, as is punting with Minshew or Dobbs. I’d like to split the difference with Stafford, but I’d be comfortable switching to the cheaper options if the salary is a big boost elsewhere.
Wide receiver is also fairly open behind Chase, though it’s hard to see spending up for another top player working out. Woods is my favorite cheap option, but it’s close between him, Downs, and Osborn. Same thing in the mid-range, where I like Marquise Brown, but would be happy with Adam Thielen ($5,900) or Michael Thomas ($4,900) on either side of his salary.
I suppose Ertz is another lock this week, but more due to a lack of viable pivots than his own merits. On defense, I like Detroit ($2,700) and New England ($2,700), but would feel a little better getting up to Miami ($3,500) or Philadelphia ($3,600). I’m never going to make sacrifices at other spots for defense, though.
For a more in-depth look at each position, be sure to check out our positional breakdowns by Matt Martin or any of our other NFL content.
Good luck this week!
