One more week of fight nights before the massive UFC 294 card next weekend, this time headlined by up-and-coming Sodiq Yusuff against longtime featherweight standout Edson Barboza.
It’s an interesting card for DFS, with tons of lopsided betting lines that put a premium on finding an underdog winner. The 12-fight card locks at 4:00 p.m. ET on Saturday.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly, to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Sodiq Yusuff ($8,700) vs. Edson Barboza ($7,500)
“Super” Sodiq Yusuff saw his ascent up the featherweight rankings detoured over the last year, where an injury has held him out of competition since last October. Prior to that, he had compiled an impressive 6-1 record in the UFC, with the only loss coming to fellow top contender Arnold Allen.
He doesn’t have an easy task ahead of him in his return, with dangerous veteran Edson Barboza meeting him. Barboza has settled into gatekeeper status — in the best sense of the word — serving to separate true contenders from the bottom of the official rankings.
Barboza has some of the best pure striking in the division. He uses his massive 75″ reach well, keeping opponents at bay with kicks and knees. He’s fairly one-dimensional, though. He has little-to-no grappling and struggles with cardio at times. Those aren’t issues that tend to be fixed at age 37.
Yusuff should be the better all-around fighter here. On top of that, he’s the much bigger, stronger athlete and could utilize a relatively cautious “cage-push” style approach against the quicker Barboza. That doesn’t make for great DFS scores, though having five rounds to work with helps.
This isn’t a fight I’d have much interest in for DFS if it weren’t a main event. With stoppage odds of -250, it’s likely somebody finishes the bout, but that doesn’t guarantee a big DFS score. I’ll be roughly even between Barboza and Yusuff for GPPs, as the long layoff for Yusuff leaves a door open for a quick Barboza win.
For cash games, I’m happy stacking both fighters here. My thoughts are roughly in line with their salaries, and we saw last week how dangerous fading the main event underdog can be.
The Easy Chalk
Terrance McKinney ($9,500)
Terrance McKinney is known for his exciting fights, big finishes, and about three minutes of cardio. The UFC lightweight is just 1-4 in his career in fights that make it past the three-minute mark, and he’s never been to a decision as a professional. That’s a telling stat, given his 14-6 pro record.
His four UFC wins have all been in the first round and have all produced at least 97 DraftKings points. If he wins, he’s a near-lock for the optimal lineup on any slate — and he’s this slate’s biggest favorite at -535. He’s -200 to win in the first round on DraftKings.
He’s taking on UFC newcomer Brendon Marotte ($6,700), who’s stepping in on short notice after Chris Duncan was forced off the card. Unfortunately, the switch was made before salaries were released, so we aren’t getting a discount on McKinney, but he’s a great play, even at his current price.
Marotte isn’t a highly-touted prospect coming into this one, and he’s fought fairly poor competition throughout his pro career to date. He would probably be a fight or two away from a Contender Series invitation under normal circumstances but is being thrown to the wolves here against McKinney.
In a week where many of the other heavy favorites are more likely to grind out decisions, McKinney is a near-lock for most contest types. He’s scary due to his cardio issues, but it’s worth the risk in the context of this slate. Any lineups without him should include Marotte, as he probably puts McKinney away if he survives the initial onslaught.
The Upside Plays
Andre Petroski ($7,600)
Petroski is stepping in on short notice to welcome Michel Pereira ($8,600) to the middleweight division. After Pereira’s bad weight miss at welterweight forced the cancellation of his bout with Stephen Thompson, the Brazilian has gone up to the 185 lbs division.
This could be a big factor here, as Pereira is a pure striker who relied on his size and strength to keep fights standing. He was originally given a matchup with fellow striker Marc-Andre Barriault on this card, but an injury to “Powerbar” leaves Pereira with an entirely different opponent.
Petroski is one of the more persistent grapplers of the larger divisions. He’s averaging more than 4.5 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC. That’s excellent for DFS, given the five-point bonuses for takedowns and all the opportunities to wrack up strikes and control time from the top.
Petroski is 5-0 in the UFC proper, with four of those bouts topping 91 points. This fight would likely be lined much closer if he had a full camp, with his grappling edge over Pereira.
He’s a bit of a risk, as it’s impossible to know coming in if he’s actually in fight shape or just stepping up to collect a paycheck. It’s a risk I’m willing to take at his price tag, though, especially since the potential reward is so high.
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The Value Play
Viviane Araujo ($7,700) and Ashley Yoder ($6,900)
There are two fights on the card with +200 or longer stoppage odds, so I’m grouping both underdogs in those fights together. The first is Araujo, who takes on Jennifer Maia ($8,500) in Saturday’s co-main event.
Maia and Araujo have 20 UFC fights and just two stoppages between them. That makes it a fairly safe bet that Araujo gets a full 15 minutes to work here. She doesn’t have great striking volume, but with a takedown average of 1.81 per 15 minutes, she should provide a solid floor with her grappling.
Yoder’s fight against Emily Ducote ($9,300) isn’t quite as likely to see the judges — +225 stoppage odds compared to +275 for Araujo — but she’s priced appropriately for the slightly worse odds. She has lower striking and wrestling output historically, but that’s why we save an extra $800.
An honorable mention in this category is Heili Alateng ($7,200), whose fight with Chris Gutierrez ($9,000) is +180 to end early. Alateng has also seen the line move his way — while Araujo and Yoder have become larger underdogs throughout the week. He’s the only one of the trio I’d consider for GPPs.
I don’t have a strong opinion on which one I prefer relative to their price tags. Instead, I’m building my lineups without them and fitting in whichever one fits with my remaining salary.
The Contrarian Choice
Daniel da Silva ($7,000)
This is a strange fight, as we’re getting a rematch just a month in the making. Daniel da Silva took on Edgar Chairez ($9,200) in September in a bout that ended as a no-contest.
That was due to a poor stoppage by referee Chris Tognoni, who saw da Silva in a standing guillotine attempt from Chairez. Tognoni stopped the fight, thinking da Silva was unconscious. Which he wasn’t, as became immediately apparent at the time. Less apparent — based on the betting line and DFS salaries — was the fact that da Silva wasn’t in any real danger, as the “choke” was more of a head squeeze.
The last time this fight was booked, da Silva was $7,500. Nothing in that fight gave me any reason to believe Chairez deserved to be a heavier favorite this time around. If anything, Silva was outperforming his odds and salary. Neither man has a win in the UFC, but da Silva has had plenty of promising moments in all of his losses.
Chairez is probably the A-side in this fight, but the salary gap is too wide. da Silva has an aggressive style with three knockdowns in his last two losses and has the potential for a big score here if he can find the button on Chairez. His record should keep ownership down, so I want to be well above the field on da Silva for GPPs.
Update: The fight between Edgar Chairez and Daniel da Silva was called off due to a “non weight-cut medical issue” from da Silva.
The Swing Fight
Adrian Yanez ($8,200) vs. Jonathan Martinez ($8,000)
We have a potential fight-of-the-night candidate between Martinez and Yanez. They’re both dangerous strikers who push an incredibly high pace. They combine for over 11 significant strikes landed per minute, which means tons of potential fantasy points to go around.
Martinez is riding a five-fight win streak and coming off an upset victory over Said Nurmagomedov in his last appearance. He’s a dynamic overall striker whose best attribute is probably his dangerous leg kicks. An underrated grappler, he survived a few trips to the ground with Nurmagomedov, even threatening with submissions of his own at times.
Yanez is the more one-dimensional fighter with a boxing-based attack. He’s the more voluminous overall striker and also has superior power, with four knockouts in his five UFC wins. He’s considerably more one-dimensional, having not even attempted a takedown in his UFC career. He had his own five-fight UFC win streak snapped in his last fight against top bantamweight Rob Font, but had his moments in that fight.
From a DFS standpoint, Martinez is the better cash play. He has more ways to win but a potentially lower score if he is victorious. While we aren’t banking on takedown points, his ability to grapple also provides more of a floor than Yanez. He’s flipped to a slight favorite at most sportsbooks, making him a decent value at $8,000.
For tournaments, Yanez is the better play. He’s fairly reliant on knockouts, but that gives him a higher potential ceiling. He’s topped 100 DraftKings points in three of his five wins, which would be more than enough to land him in the optimal lineup at $8,200.
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