Week 5 concludes with an inter-conference battle on Monday night football. The 2-2 Green Bay Packers travel to the desert for a primetime showdown versus the 1-3 Las Vegas Raiders. Bettors are lining up to back the home side in this one, with the Raiders holding steady as -2 chalk, despite an underwhelming start to the season. We’ll offer insights on how the Raiders could be approaching tonight’s contest, and you can apply these player props to your advantage.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
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Packers-Raiders NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Josh Jacobs Higher 72.5 Rushing Yards
When teams’ backs are against the wall, there’s generally an accepted mentality that they need to get more out of their quarterback. But the Raiders would be wise to amend that approach. Jimmy Garoppolo is off to a lackluster start in Las Vegas. The key to the Raiders’ success might be tapping into other players rather than amplifying the pressure on Jimmy G.
One player Josh McDaniels needs to incorporate more is Josh Jacobs. Regression was inevitable after Jacobs’ career-best season in 2022. Last year, Jacobs ran for a league-best 1,653 yards on 340 carries, setting new benchmarks in yards per carry and yards per game while tying his previous high with 12 touchdowns. After the start to the season he’s had, it’s time for the pendulum to start swinging the other way.
Jacobs’ metrics have plummeted compared to last year. His yards per carry has sunk to 2.7 from 4.9. Likewise, Jacobs’ yards per game has fallen by more than half, going from 97.2 to 41.5. The Raiders running back is better than what we’ve seen from him this year, and he’ll have an opportunity to show that on Monday night.
Opponents have had a tremendous amount of success running the ball against the Packers. Green Bay sits second-last in the NFL, giving up an average of 155.3 rushing yards per game. As expected, that falls to 166.5 on the road.
Tonight is a perfect opportunity for the Raiders to turn to Josh Jacobs, and we expect him to be up to the challenge. He’s going north of 72.5 rushing yards.
Josh Jacobs Higher 0.5 Rushing + Receiving Touchdowns
We’re taking a correlated approach with our second offering, going back to the Jacobs’ well. An increased emphasis on the rushing attack should help the Alabama product find the end zone for just the second time this season.
Jacobs has been a red zone asset since being drafted by Las Vegas. In the four years leading up to 2023, Jacobs had crossed the plane 40 times, recording 12 scores twice. He hasn’t been the priority on offense he usually is, but we’re expecting him to take on a more robust role tonight.
As we saw last week, the Packers have been unable to stop effective runners this season. David Montgomery torched Green Bay for 121 yards and three scores. Similarly, Bijan Robinson went off for 124 yards on 19 carries, albeit without a score.
Elite running backs are steamrolling the Pack, and Jacobs is due for progression. You can find him in the end zone in tonight’s contest.
Jimmy Garoppolo Lower 32.5 Pass Attempts
So far this season, Las Vegas has dialed up their reliance on their aerial assault. Granted, not all of it is intentional. When teams are playing from behind, they inevitably opt to pass more to get yards in bigger chunks. But that approach could be part of what’s slowing the Raiders down. With more of an emphasis on the ground game against the Packers, there should be less at stake for Garoppolo.
Passing play calling is up to 62.6% this year, up from last year’s mark of 59.2%. Even at that level, Jimmy G has thrown more than 26 passes just once in three games this season. Moreover, the Raiders should avoid playing into Green Bay’s biggest defensive strength. The Packers are holding opponents to just 197.3 passing yards per game, with 11 sacks and three interceptions.
Injuries could also factor into decreased usage for Garoppolo. The Raiders quarterback cleared concussion protocol, but the hazard is still present. Taking the ball out of his hands could be the surest way to avoid re-injury against a fierce Packers pass rush.
A recent injury to Garoppolo combined with Green Bay’s defensive structure should result in decreased reliance on Garoppolo. We’re using that to our advantage, going lower than 32.5 pass attempts.
Romeo Doubs Higher 46.5 Receiving Yards
We’ve been high on Romeo Doubs for the past few weeks. The Packers wide receiver has emerged as the top pass-catcher for Jordan Love and should have plenty of real estate to work with against a penetrable Raiders’ secondary.
Doubs and Love are blossoming together. Love has thrown Doubs’ way 25 times over the past couple of weeks, representing an elite 31.3% target share. That chemistry will continue to be on display against the Raiders.
The area of growth that’s required from Doubs is his catch rate. The second-year pro is hauling in just 60.6% of his targets, leaving a lot of room for improvement. Although that could negatively impact his receptions prop, Doubs has had no problem going north of his receiving yards total. Over the last two weeks, Doubs has totaled 168 yards, garnering at least 73 yards in each contest.
The Raiders secondary has been prone to lapses. Josh Palmer burned Las Vegas for a 51-yard catch-and-run last week, with Calvin Austin setting the high mark at 72-yards the week before. All told, opposing wide receivers have gone off for at least a 40-yard catch in three straight weeks.
Doubs should be the latest pass-catcher to benefit from the Raiders’ pass defense issues and should have no problem exceeding 46.5 receiving yards.
