Sunday night gives us an absolute banger, as the Cowboys travel to the bay to face the 49ers at 8:20 p.m. ET. The 49ers are listed as three-and-a-half-point home favorites, while the total sits at 45 points.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Christian McCaffrey gets us started on this showdown slate, as he continues his tremendous start to the season. He had between 22 and 29 DraftKings points in the first three games. With Eli Mitchell out last week, McCaffrey erupted to score four touchdowns and handle 28 opportunities out of the backfield.
Mitchell is out again, so there’s no real threat to take any backfield touches from McCaffrey. He’s found the end zone in 13 straight games and is a strong bet to do it again. Dallas somewhat held McCaffrey in check last postseason, as he ran for 35 yards on 10 carries and caught six of eight targets for 22 yards. Mitchell handled 14 carries in that game, which he obviously won’t do tonight.
McCaffrey easily profiles as the top play on the slate.
Last week’s blowout led to Tony Pollard only handling 14 touches, but his role is still elite. His workload rivals McCaffrey, as he handled 17, 33, and 26 opportunities in the first three games. The matchup isn’t as daunting as it may seem. San Francisco ranks 13th in yards per carry allowed, but they’ve given up a lot of explosive runs. Pollard is another strong option and could be under-owned in tournaments with McCaffrey not that much more expensive and numerous other appealing options around him.
CeeDee Lamb also saw limited work due to last week’s blowout nature, catching four of six targets for 36 yards and a touchdown.
We saw Lamb light up San Francisco in the postseason, catching 10 of 13 targets for 117 yards. Dallas moves Lamb all around the field, so it’s unlikely San Francisco can hone in to take him away. With this game likely staying close the entire time, I like Lamb to put up a big game.
It’s been a pedestrian start to the year for Dak Prescott, but Dallas has rarely had its foot on the gas pedal in the second half. He hasn’t topped 20 DraftKings points in a game yet, averaging 13.9 per contest.
San Francisco’s defense has rarely been tested, but it is allowing just 5.4 yards per attempt on the year. It’s a difficult matchup, but Prescott is a good way to soak up the aggregate of the Dallas passing attack.
I think I prefer Brock Purdy to Prescott, as the weapons at his disposal are top of the league and he’s had a better start to the fantasy year. He threw just one incompletion last week, throwing for 283 yards and a touchdown while picking one up on the ground on a quarterback sneak.
I talked about using Prescott to soak up the Dallas passing attack, and the same definitely goes for Purdy.
This is the toughest showdown slate we’ve had in a while. None of these options stand out as easy plays to avoid. McCaffrey will undoubtedly be the highest owned, but it’s hard to argue against it. There’s also not a lot of clear value on this slate, so it makes it difficult to roster numerous studs.
NFL DFS Mid-range Picks
A trio of 49ers pass catchers headlines the mid tier, with Brandon Aiyuk leading the way. Correctly picking the 49ers’ pass catcher who erupts may be the key to this slate.
Aiyuk has had a great start to the year, with two eruption spots and a floor game in between. For matchups where San Francisco can move the ball with ease, I tend to prefer Aiyuk. He dominates the downfield passing game, with a 28% target share, 51% air-yards share, and healthy 24% first-read target rate per route run.
However, I’m expecting San Francisco to take more of a gadget-like approach that we see from them in big spots. Dallas has a daunting pass rush, which will likely lead to more schemed targets for Deebo Samuel and his short aDOT.
Samuel has a 25% target share, a 23% air-yards share and a solid but not great 18% first-read target rate per route run. He didn’t see a single target last week but had three rushes. I’m expecting a big Samuel game here. Maybe it’s gut feeling, but I feel like we’ve been watching him run wild in every big game San Francisco has. Aiyuk still profiles as a good play, I just prefer Samuel and the savings.
With the 49ers likely needing more short passes, George Kittle could be in line for a good game. His target volume is unpredictable, with just an 18% target share and a 17% first-read target rate.
Kittle caught five of five targets for 95 yards when these teams played last postseason.
The Cowboys have been lackluster against opposing tight ends, ranking in the bottom half of the league in catch rate allowed and yards per target. Samuel is still my top option here, but Kittle provides some nice salary relief off the receiver duo.
Brandin Cooks hasn’t gotten much going this year, with 15 total targets and eight catches through three games. He has just 14.6 total DraftKings points on the season.
The good news for Cooks is he runs three-quarters of his snaps on the perimeter, where San Francisco is susceptible. They’ve allowed the third-highest catch rate and most receptions per game to opposing perimeter receivers.
Cooks has been outdueled by teammate Michael Gallup as of late, with Gallup catching 11 of 13 targets for 152 yards over the past two weeks. Cooks’ role is better, and he sees a higher share of the passing-game volume. However, I wouldn’t fault you for taking the savings with Gallup on a slate devoid of value.
Jake Ferguson rounds out this Dallas receiving room and is sandwiched between Cooks and Gallup in price. He was one of my favorite options last week, catching seven of seven targets for 77 yards. Lots of sevens.
He’s only running a route on two-thirds of the dropbacks, but he has a 20% target share and a strong 25% first-read target rate per route run. Big Mike McCarthy is calling plays with Ferguson in mind. He’s my preferred option of these mid-tier Dallas pass catchers.
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NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them. Given the expected low-scoring nature, these options should be even more viable than usual. The kickers will be common clicks Sunday night as this slate has virtually no savings.
- Jauan Jennings ($3,800 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): Jennings definitely has the strongest role of anyone priced down here, but he isn’t too appealing of an option. He missed last week’s contest, but he doesn’t have an injury designation here. He’s the team’s slot man, and Dallas has been vulnerable over the middle. I won’t get here, but I wouldn’t fault you for using him.
- Rico Dowdle ($3,000 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Dowdle mixes in with Pollard, but he is likely too expensive for his role. His usage has mostly been in blowouts, but he’s fairly cheap and has handled four, seven, and eight touches over the past three weeks.
- Jordan Mason ($1,800 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel): If you expect San Francisco to mix in another back, Mason is the guy. The 49ers likely just ride McCaffrey until the wheels fall off here, but Mason could handle a couple of touches. With how top-heavy this slate is, you could take a zero from one of these guys and it honestly may not kill you.
- Kavontae Turpin ($1,400 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Turpin sees some schemed touches as a gadget player, and he had a 46-yard rush last week. You’re likely to get a zero, but he does have big-play ability.
- Kyle Juszczyk ($400 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel): You know the deal with Kyle Juszczyk. Hopefully he can get a goal-line carry and maybe catch a ball or two. As I said, you can likely take a zero from one of these guys and be fine. Juszczyk provides a lot of savings and at least will be on the field.
