With bye weeks beginning this week, the Week 5 main slate features 10 games and in this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 5.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Tua Tagovailoa ($7,100) + Tyreek Hill ($9,000)
Plain and simple, Tagovailoa to Hill is the best stack for Week 5. Hosting the struggling Giants – who are the fifth worst-graded defense on PFF – the Dolphins carry an implied team total of 30 points, which is the highest on the slate by a notable two points, via the FantasyLabs Vegas page. Plus, this game’s total is the third largest on the board (47.5 points).
Tagovailoa has been the most efficient quarterback this season, leading the league in yards per attempt (9.6) and sitting in a tie for the second most passing touchdowns (9). In his four starts this season, Tagovailoa has topped 30 DraftKings points twice and recorded under 15 in the other two matchups. Notably, those two outbursts came against non-divisional teams, while the two duds came against AFC East rivals. This is huge news for Tagovailoa with the NFC East Giants in town and another explosion north of 30 DraftKings is absolutely on the table for the quarterback.
As for Hill, he has garnered a target on 33% of his routes this season and ranks third in deep targets over 20 yards (9). The superstar leads all receivers in DraftKings points per snap (0.58) and, just like Tagovailoa, has dominated in the Dolphins’ two non-divisional games this season, scoring an absurd 40.6 DraftKings PPG.
For a larger sample, in the seven non-divisional contests Hill has played behind an implied team total of at least 30 points since joining Miami, he is amassing 27 DraftKings PPG, via the Trends tool.
Both Tagovailoa and Hill are expected to gain plenty of attention individually, but as always, combining them in the same lineup shouldn’t be a common strategy in large GPPs. Via the FantasyLabs Contest Dashboard, the pairing of Tagovailoa and Hill has yet to be over 5% owned in DraftKings’ Fantasy Football Millionaire this season.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
David Montgomery ($6,600)
With the $6K running back range filled with appealing options this week, Montgomery is expected to only come with around 10% ownership on DraftKings via the BLITZ projections, making this an outstanding time to attack the ex-Bear.
Montgomery is coming off a career-best 37.1 DraftKings against the Packers last week and now finds himself in an elite spot this Sunday against the Panthers, who are giving up the fourth most yards per rush (4.7). The Lions boast the fourth highest implied team total on the slate in this spot (27.25 points), and they are a 10-point home favorite.
Being a massive home favorite is always an ideal situation for that team’s top back, and in the three games he has played this season, Montgomery has, without a doubt, been Detroit’s main rusher, handling 23 carries per game, which ranks first this among all running backs. The 26-year-old has specifically been extremely active in the red zone, ranking third in the league in red zone carries (18) despite missing one game. Overall, that is six red zone rushes per game, which ranks second only to Tony Pollard this season.
This Carolina defense Montgomery is facing has yielded the second most rushing touchdowns this season (6), and on the DraftKings Sportsbook, Montgomery is a heavy -175 favorite to find the endzone this Sunday, which are impressively the second-best odds among all skill players this week, trailing only Christian McCaffrey.
In the BLITZ projections, Montgomery presents the ninth-best ceiling among all the skill players on the slate but is only the 17th most expensive option in that category.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Garrett Wilson ($6,000)
Wilson has opened the season with four straight difficult matchups but now gets fantasy football’s ultimate matchup in the Broncos this Sunday. After the first four weeks, this Denver defense is allowing the most yards per pass in the league (8.9), and they are the worst-graded defense on PFF by a mile. Their current grade sits at 42.3, with the next lowest being the Cardinals at 55.2. While the Jets offense has struggled, Wilson has continued to see elite usage, ranking third among wideouts in target share (32.73%), trailing only Davante Adams and A.J. Brown.
Furthermore, Wilson has been New York’s main weapon in scoring territory, ranking eighth in the league in red zone targets (6). The Broncos have already surrendered six touchdowns to receivers this season – which is tied for the most in the league – and Wilson is a strong bet to find the paydirt at least once this Sunday. With the BLITZ projections slating him for around 7% ownership on DraftKings and with his salary at a season-low $6,000, Wilson is one of the best GPP plays on the board.
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NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Jonnu Smith ($2,900)
Sitting at a new career-low $3,300, Kyle Pitts should attract plenty of DFS players this week against the Texans, who are the ninth-worst graded defense on PFF. While there is certainly logic in gambling on the incredible athlete, making a direct pivot off him to his teammate Smith at a lower salary and likely a fraction of the ownership is a sharp strategy.
While Pitts owns the higher route rate this season at 88% compared to Smith at 61%, the latter has seen much better usage, being targeted on 22% of his routes compared to Pitts at 16%. Furthermore, Smith has seen three red zone targets, while Pitts has seen two.
Overall, Smith has produced 10.2 more total DraftKings points than Pitts despite being on the field less. Lastly, the Vegas oddsmakers are clearly aware of this situation, as Smith carries better props for this Sunday on the DraftKings Sportsbook at 3.5 receptions for 30.5 yards, compared to Pitts at 2.5 receptions for 28.5 yards.
All signs are pointing to Smith outpacing Pitts again this Sunday, and a double-digit DraftKings point effort is a possible outcome, which would be an immense return for Smith at his sub $3K salary.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.
