After a rare bye week last week, the UFC is back with…Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green. It’s not the most exciting card, but there’s still big DFS contests on deck so we’re back on the grind.
We have a smallish 11-fight card, which kicks off at 4:00 ET on Saturday afternoon.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly, to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Grant Dawson ($9,400) vs. Bobby Green ($6,800)
The UFC has something special on its hands with Dawson, who’s riding a 12-fight unbeaten streak (with one draw) in the incredibly deep lightweight division. Yet he still isn’t a well-known fighter by most of the casual fan base. The promotion is looking to change that here by matching him up with the more well-known but past-his-prime Bobby Green.
Green is a game fighter who always has exciting fights but is just 11-9-1 in the UFC. For perspective, Dawson could lose his next nine fights in a row and have the same record as Green. Green has excellent boxing but isn’t a one-punch knockout artist and also tends to struggle when paired with high-level grapplers.
Dawson falls firmly in the latter category, outwrestling Olympian Mark Madsen and elite grappler Damir Ismagulov in his last two bouts. Dawson has been taken down just twice in his UFC career but has picked up 29 of his own for a 3.70/15-minute average.
He also has excellent submission skills and is -150 to end this fight inside the distance. He’s an excellent play even without a finish, though, as a longer fight just means more opportunities for takedowns. With this bout as the main event, it’s scheduled for a potential five rounds. so Dawson’s upside is enormous.
I’m fine with including Green in cash games, as he has the striking volume (6.14 significant strikes landed per minute) to give him a solid floor assuming he can keep it standing for any amount of time. For tournaments, though, it’s hard to get away from the massive ceiling of Dawson.
The Easy Chalk
Joe Pyfer ($9,300)
The co-main event features another fan favorite fighter in Joe Pyfer, who made waves with his knockout victory on the Contender Series and his post-fight speech about overcoming homelessness and other personal issues to make it into the cage.
Since landing in the UFC proper, he’s picked up consecutive first round knockouts, as well as going 2-0 in professional-level submission grappling competitions. The grappling success is especially relevant for Pyfer, who’s suffered both of his career losses during grappling exchanges (one submission and one injury due to a takedown.)
It’s a solid opportunity for him to look good tonight against Abdul Razak Alhassan ($6,900), who’s 2-4 over his last six but with both wins coming against fairly low-level opposition. “Judo Thunder” has found success as a welterweight against smaller competition, but typically has struggled at 185 where this bout is being contested.
The main appeal for Pyfer is his stoppage potential, as he’s -175 to win by knockout and -135 to win in the first round. He trails Drew Dober ($9,500) in moneyline odds by a bit, but is both cheaper and more likely to pick up a first round win, making him the superior DFS play.
The Upside Plays
Joaquin Buckley ($8,700)
Buckley is 6-4 in his UFC tenure, but all but one of those wins have come via knockout. Including this all-time highlight:
More angles of Joaquin Buckley taking out Impa Kasanganay with a crazy jumping spin kick KO #UFCFightIsland5pic.twitter.com/qEj3SSInfY
— MMA Mania (@mmamania) October 11, 2020
He’s now dropped to 170lbs, where he has a massive power and athleticism edge over his opponents. He proved that last time out with a headkick win over Andre Fialho, and now draws Alex Morono ($7,500) on the main card of UFC Vegas 80.
Morono is a journeyman fighter with a 12-5 promotional record dating back to 2016, and two knockout losses in that time frame. Buckley comes in as a moderate -170 favorite, but has a fairly wide range of outcomes for DFS.
That’s because Morono is the more technical and well-rounded fighter in this matchup, but Buckley has the explosive power to end things with one shot. He’s likely to end up with a disappointing score if he can’t finish it — His lone decision win only scored 80 points despite five takedowns — but has huge upside if he can find the button.
Ion Cutelaba ($8,300)
Cutelaba is another fighter with a tremendously wide range of outcomes. “The Hulk” looks incredibly good at times, with four of his six UFC wins coming via first round knockout. He’s also failed to live up to expectation in a number of spots, particularly against fighters who can take him down or outlast him.
But for a few minutes on the feet, he’s as dangerous as any fighter in the UFC. He might just have the kind of matchup he needs to find success here against Phillip Lins ($7,900) who’s managed to land takedowns in just two of his five UFC appearances with a 35% accuracy rate.
Like Buckley, Cutelaba has an almost non-existent floor, making him a GPP-only option. Disregarding his draw against Dustin Jacoby, he’s only scored between 31 and 107 points once in 14 bouts. His ceiling is as high as anyone’s, though, so he’ll be a major factor in my tournament builds.
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The Value Play
Diana Belbita ($7,600)
Belbita was one of the fighters I mentioned earlier in the week in my Luck Rankings as potentially undervalued with her (at the time) +136 moneyline odds. Those odds have dropped since down to +120, which automatically makes her a bit underpriced at $7,600.
She’s taking on Karolina Kowalkiewicz ($8,600), a 38-year-old veteran of 15 UFC bouts. Kowalkiewicz has one of the last three of those — but two were against fighters even older than her, and she had lost a whopping five straight prior to that. The data on double-digit age gaps in the UFC is stark, with the younger fighters winning around 62% of the time.
Belbita doesn’t even need to win to be a good value here, though. She’s a very active striker who’s landed over 6.5 significant strikes per minute in her UFC career, taking on an opponent unlikely to take the fight to the ground. This fight also has the longest stoppage odds on the slate, giving Belbita a rock-solid floor relative to her price tag.
That makes her especially appealing for cash games, as she should get a full 15 minutes to rack up the strikes. A decision in her favor could be enough upside to propel her into GPP-winning territory as well.
The Contrarian Choice
Kanako Murata ($8,900)
Murata is probably unknown to most UFC fans (and DFS players), with just two UFC fights under her belt and a more than two-year layoff since the most recent bout.
However, she’s a former national Judo champion in Japan and a junior world champion in freestyle wrestling. Those are serious grappling credentials, and she has an excellent matchup with Vanessa Demopolous ($7,300) to show them off.
Demopolous is a BJJ-style fighter who’s generally willing to engage in grappling exchanges. Demopolous has some submission upside here, but she’ll be likely to accept takedowns from Murata to get the fight to the ground. That gives Murata plenty of upside, as those takedowns can add up to big scores in a hurry.
She’ll probably be overlooked by most of the field, who’s unlikely to roster a women’s fighter in a bout relatively unlikely to end by the finish. However, her ceiling is just as high as the more expensive fighters on the card, making her a sneaky GPP option.
The Swing Fight
Bill Algeo ($8,400) vs. Alexander Hernandez ($7,800)
This is an interesting fight for DFS, as Hernandez is the far better value — he opened as the underdog here but has since moved to a slight favorite at -130 on DraftKings. However, he’s the far riskier fighter, as the bulk of his win condition is based on a first-round knockout, while Algeo should be the better fighter after a few minutes.
Algeo is all volume and pace, landing nearly six significant strikes per minute in his UFC run. Hernandez is all power, with half of his UFC wins coming in under two minutes. He tends to fade fast if he can’t find the knockout early. With the exception of a too-close-for-comfort decision win over Jim Miller in his last appearance, he’s lost four straight that have made it past two minutes.
Given the flipping of the line, I expect Hernandez to be extremely popular on this slate. I prefer the overall skill set of Algeo, however. He’s never been knocked out as a pro and is surely planning for the early blitz of Hernandez.
With the difficulty of staying unique of an 11-fight slate, I’ll be finding my way to Algeo in a lot of my tournament lineups — with the knowledge that Hernandez has massive first-minute upside himself. That makes both fighters very appealing, and I’ll probably roster Hernandez in all of my non-Algeo lineups.
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