Hold your nose for this one, it could get a little messy. The hotter-than-expected Washington Commanders welcome the inferior Chicago Bears for Thursday night football. Washington gave the Philadelphia Eagles all they could handle in an overtime loss on Sunday. Conversely, the Bears had a monumental collapse against the Denver Broncos, blowing a 21-point cushion in the second half. Things are only going to get worse on a short week against the upstart Commanders.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are — and you can see more projection picks here.
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Bears-Commanders NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Justin Fields Higher 16.5 Completions
Playing from behind comes with its own unique set of disadvantages, all of which the Bears have grown accustomed to. Without the lead, teams are forced to abandon their game plan and try to break off plays in bigger chunks. Part of that is playing into Chicago’s misery, factoring into Justin Fields’ unfortunate start to the season.
The ongoing deficits have precipitated increased pressure on Fields, and Matt Eberflus continues to demand the most out of his quarterback. Despite persistent accuracy issues, Fields has exceeded 29 pass attempts in all but one of his starts this year. In total, he’s accounted for 123 pass attempts across four outings, for an average of 30.8 per game.
Washington has been effective at jumping out to early leads, factoring into more passing from Fields. But there’s a more concrete metric at play. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 65.2% of throws against the Commanders over the past couple of weeks. That’s a good omen for Fields, who went 28-for-35 in Week 4 for a healthy 80.0% completion rate.
The Bears have shown no signs of abandoning their reliance on Fields, and that won’t change in Week 5. Increased volume against a shaky pass defense should help Fields go north of 16.5 completions.
D.J. Moore Higher 50.5 Receiving Yards
As usual, we’re adding a complementary pick to our plays list. Fields will be distributing the ball to the usual suspects, and D.J. Moore has been his default. The Maryland product is tied for the team lead in receptions and is coming off his best outing of the campaign. Nevertheless, Moore has some very achievable marks in tonight’s battle against the Commanders.
Moore is the default receiving option in the Bears offense. He leads the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards, posting a career-best 12.5 yards per target and a robust 79.2% catch rate. Further, Moore has established chemistry with Fields over the last few weeks, going above 100 receiving yards in two of the past three outings.
Containing wide receivers has been an issue for the Commanders. Other than the flightless Arizona Cardinals, their other three opponents have a 100-yard receiver. A.J. Brown torched Washington for 175 yards last week, with Stefon Diggs going off for 111 in Week 3 and Marvin Mims tallying 113 the week before that.
Moore’s ceiling is higher than his props imply. The former first-round pick has accumulated 22 targets, 17 catches, and 276 yards over the previous three weeks. Considering the Commanders’ generous secondary, Moore is poised to continue that improved play into Week 5.
Our preferred avenue is taking Moore to go higher than 50.5 receiving yards.
Brian Robinson Jr. Higher 64.5 Rushing Yards
If tonight’s contest goes the way we’re thinking and is implied by the betting price, Washington could emphasize its running game to control the clock. That’s even more advantageous for Brian Robinson Jr., who has been an early-season workhorse for the Commanders.
Through four weeks, Robinson Jr. is averaging 15.3 carries per game and 3.9 rushing yards per attempt. However, his yards per carry is climbing higher over Robinson’s recent sample, with the former third-round pick averaging 4.8 rushing yards per attempt over his last three.
That upward trend should continue against an ineffective Bears’ rushing defense. Opponents are averaging 115.5 rushing yards per game against Chicago, including 123.3 over their previous three. Worse, the Bears have been steamrolled on the road, allowing an average of 136.5 rushing yards per game.
Granted, the Bears have made some personnel adjustments upfront that should help them get better, but there are some fundamental flaws in their ability to stop the run. After a tepid Week 1, Robinson Jr. is starting to hit his stride out of the Commanders’ backfield. He should continue his rise and go above 64.5 rushing yards.
Sam Howell Higher 13.0 Rushing Yards
Of course, Brian Robinson Jr. isn’t the only rusher who gets to exploit the Bears defense. Sam Howell flashed his mobility last week against the Eagles and should have an easier time picking up yards with his legs at home on Thursday.
Howell’s rushing prowess isn’t limited to his most recent contest either. The Commanders signal-caller has ran for at least 13 yards in each of his past three games. We can also infer from his game-long metrics that Howell is making the correct reads. Howell’s long rush in each of the past three weeks has been 11, 18, and 20, suggesting that he’s taking off at the most opportune times.
Stopping quarterbacks hasn’t been on the Bears’ priority list this season. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging 17.5 rushing yards per game, with all four pivots going for at least 12 yards.
Quarterback mobility is paramount in Ron Rivera’s offense, and Howell is learning the ropes. He should continue to make good reads and take off when appropriate, which should help him go higher than 13.0 rushing yards tonight.
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