NFL DFS DraftKings Showdown: Lineup Optimizer Rules and Favorite Angle in Bears-Commanders

Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 DFS lineups in each contest.

This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on this game into lineups.

Additionally, this piece focuses on DraftKings Showdown contests, but similar strategies are useful on FanDuel.

For my general Showdown strategy, you can read my Showdown primer.

My Favorite NFL DFS Angle in Bears vs. Commanders Showdown

This is an interesting matchup that represents a stark contrast from each team’s previous opponent. The Bears are fresh off their best performance of the year against a generationally bad Broncos defense, while the Commanders pushed the Eagles to the brink. I’m hoping these recent results create a bit of recency bias amongst ownership tonight.

I’m focusing my attention tonight on the Commanders’ passing offense. New OC Eric Bieniemy has brought his pass-happy tendencies with him from Kansas City, ranking second in the league in pass rate over expectation despite Sam Howell being sacked a league-high 24 times.

Tonight this pass-happy offense gets to face a Bears defense that is wrecked with injuries in the secondary and has only generated two sacks so far this season. This looks like a blow-up spot for Sam Howell and his pass catchers.

Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Curtis Samuel, and Logan Thomas make up the Commanders core 11 personnel and all are solidly in play for me tonight.

Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider

General

• Max 3 players vs. opposing Defense
• Minimum salary cap 90%

Player Correlations

• Pair Captain Sam Howell with at least one Commanders pass-catcher.
• Pair Captain Justin Fields with at least one Bears pass-catcher.
• Pair Captain pass-catchers with at most one other pass-catcher from the same team.

Player Groups

• Max two kickers and defenses
• Max 1 Bears RB

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Captain Pool (from highest to lowest priority)

Primary Targets

• Terry McLaurin
• Justin Fields
• Sam Howell
• Brian Robinson

Secondary Targets

• DJ Moore
• Jahan Dotson
• Curtis Samuel
• Khalil Herbert

Large-Field GPP Fliers

• Darnell Mooney
• Commanders Defense
• Logan Thomas
• Cole Kmet
• Antonio Gibson

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections: