In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Quarterback Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are two quarterbacks near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Patrick Mahomes
- Matthew Stafford
We’ll discuss why these two are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks.
Top Model NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Patrick Mahomes ($8,200 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel): Kansas City (-3.5) at Minnesota Vikings (52.5 total)
Patrick Mahomes had a pretty pedestrian game last Sunday night against the Jets. He completed 60% of his passes for 203 yards, throwing one touchdown and two interceptions. We haven’t seen a ceiling game from Mahomes, as he’s yet to top 26 DraftKings points on the year. However, we know it’s in there.
We’ve seen Mahomes utilize his legs more this year, topping 40 yards twice and not running for less than 28 yards in any games. Any rushing usage is appreciated, but as of now, Mahomes is averaging nearly an extra passing touchdown worth of fantasy points with his legs.
It’ll be interesting to see how Minnesota chooses to attack Mahomes. No team blitzes more than the Vikings, and Mahomes has shredded the blitz in his career.
Regardless, Mahomes should be able to feast against this lackluster defense. He’s the best quarterback in the league, attacking a poor defense. Act accordingly.
Mahomes is the top quarterback in our Cash Game and Tournament Model, as well as Chris Raybon’s Pro Model.
Matthew Stafford ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel): Los Angeles Rams (+4.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (50 total)
Matthew Stafford has quietly put together a solid start to the season. He’s averaged 17.5 DraftKings points per game with only three passing touchdowns through four games.
If he finds some positive regression in the touchdown department, he could be in for a big game.
This Eagles’ defense is solid all around, but they’re best against the run. This has led to teams throwing more against them, as it’s the path of least resistance. They’ve allowed a middling 6.8 yards per attempt but are facing a whopping 41 pass attempts per game.
Stafford also may be getting Cooper Kupp back, which would be a big boost to the offense.
Stafford is cheap, and he’s part of this matchup with sneaky shootout potential. This game boasts a total of 50, the second-highest on the week. With such a condensed target tree, Stafford has some easy stacking partners.
Other Notable NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Jalen Hurts ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel): Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) at Los Angeles Rams (50 total)
We haven’t seen any monster performances from Jalen Hurts, but he’s surely trending in the right direction. He had a rough start against New England, totaling just 13.5 DraftKings points. He’s turned it around since, averaging 25.09 DraftKings points in his past three games.
Hurts gets an unimposing matchup against the Rams here. Los Angeles has been better than advertised heading into the year, but they’re still nothing to be afraid of. They’re in the bottom ten in the league in pressure rate and play a lot of zone coverage. Hurts ranks sixth in the league in yards per attempt against zone, giving reason for optimism. He boasts the second-highest ceiling projection on the weekend, looking like an attractive tournament option.
Tua Tagovailoa ($7,100 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel): Miami Dolphins (-12.5) vs. New York Giants (47.5 total)
When building for tournaments, you need to roster guys with a ceiling. Tua Tagovailoa is exactly that, with over 30 DraftKings points in two of four games this year. He now gets a matchup with the Giants, who we’ve seen get shredded repeatedly to start the year. If the Giants continue their blitz-heavy approach, Miami has the personnel to shred them, with speedsters Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle on the outside.
It’s hard to envision an outcome of this game that doesn’t involve Miami pouring on the points. As long as the touchdowns come from Tagovailoa’s arm and not on the ground, we could see another ceiling game from Tua and the Dolphins.
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My Favorite NFL DFS Quarterback Leverage Pick(s)
Joshua Dobbs ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel): Arizona Cardinals (+3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (44.5 total)
Writing up Josh Dobbs as my favorite quarterback play of the week was certainly not on my bingo card coming into the year. I, along with many, expected Arizona to be an absolute travesty. We’ve seen them consistently compete and be an actual formidable team. Dobbs has performed in the fantasy department, with 25.22, 17.06, and 23.4 DraftKings points over his last three games.
His consistent rushing usage is very promising, as he’s added 10.1, 5.5, and 4.8 DraftKings points on the ground over the last three weeks. He’s also faced two extremely challenging opponents in San Francisco and Dallas and now gets a soft landing spot against the reeling Bengals.
Over the past three weeks, Cincinnati has allowed the seventh-most yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks. Dobbs ranks fourth in Projected Plus/Minus while ranking second in Points/Salary.
He’s extremely cheap and has some very affordable stacking partners that allow you to fit in some high-priced studs as well.
