In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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Top NFL DFS Running Back Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are two running backs near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Joe Mixon
- De’Von Achane
We’ll discuss why these two are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other running backs.
Top Model NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Joe Mixon ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (-3) at Arizona Cardinals (44.5 total)
Joe Mixon hasn’t been able to get much production, but he’s certainly getting the opportunity. He’s handled 18, 18, 21, and 15 opportunities through four weeks. He’s averaged just 11.6 DraftKings points, with between 8.6 and 14 DraftKings points in each game.
Cincinnati has struggled to stay in games, and they haven’t racked up many scoring opportunities. This week could be different, with the Bengals favored against a below-average Cardinals’ run defense. Arizona has allowed 4.31 yards per carry and the third-most receiving fantasy points to running backs on the year.
This offense’s fragility as a whole does make Mixon a little worrisome, but if they’re able to somewhat right the ship, Mixon should benefit. He’s handled 81% of the team rush attempts and is running a route on over 50% of the team dropbacks.
Mixon is the top back in our Tournament and Cash Game Model while also profiling as the top back in Sean Koerner’s Pro Model.
De’Von Achane ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Miami Dolphins (-12.5) vs. New York Giants (47.5 total)
The hierarchy of the Miami backfield may be shifting, as De’Von Achane went from mixing in in Week 3 to taking on more of a role than Raheem Mostert in Week 4. Achane played on 66% of the snaps last week, handling 47% of the team rush attempts and running a route on 68% of the team dropbacks.
Achane has been running insanely hot with efficiency, parlaying 35 opportunities into a monstrous 84.3 DraftKings points over the past two weeks. 2.41 DraftKings points per opportunity is unsustainable, to say the least.
However, his negative regression won’t just pull him back to the league average. He’s still a hyper-talented back in one of the top offenses in the league.
Achane now matches up with the Giants, who rank in the bottom ten in EPA allowed per rush, and his team is nearly a two-touchdown favorite. I’m not expecting another 54-point performance like Week 3, but this is still a strong spot for Achane.
He’s the top back in Chris Raybon’s Pro Model this week.
Other Notable NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Bijan Robinson ($7,700 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel): Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) vs. Houston Texans (41.5 total)
Bijan Robinson has been just as advertised, consistently making highlight-reel plays with the ball in his hands. He’s carved out a great role in this Atlanta offense, with 10, 19, 10, and 14 carries to go along with at least five targets in every game thus far. He’s averaged 19.1 DraftKings points per game and topped 20 DraftKings points three times despite only finding the end zone once.
Houston has allowed the sixth-most rushing fantasy points to the game and seventh-most receiving fantasy points to opposing backs. Robinson is due to find the endzone, and if we get a multi-touchdown game, he could be a slate-breaker with his efficiency as well.
Kyren Williams ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel): Los Angeles Rams (+4.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (50 total)
Kyren Williams has been one of the most surprising developments of this season and is coming off a great game against Indianapolis. He turned 25 carries into 103 yards and two touchdowns while catching three of three targets for 24 yards. He’s dealing with a hip injury, but Sean McVay said they’d take it easy on him this week, and he’d be good to go for Sunday.
This matchup is uninspiring, with Philadelphia allowing just 2.89 yards per carry to opposing backs to start the year. We’re banking on volume with Williams here, and he’s seen tons of volume. With 17, 24, 17, and 28 opportunities through the first four games, we know he’s going to get the ball.
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My Favorite NFL DFS Runningback Leverage Pick(s)
Isiah Pacheco ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Minnesota Vikings (52.5 total)
Isiah Pacheco was banged up coming into the year, and Kansas City was cautious to ease him into things. Well, now the training wheels are off, as Pacheco has handled 18 and 23 opportunities in the past two weeks, with 43.6 DraftKings points to show for it.
We’ve seen Minnesota dare teams to run the ball at times, especially in Week 2 against Philadelphia. We may see a similar approach this week, with Patrick Mahomes on the other side. This may open up some light boxes for Pacheco.
Pacheco’s workload is very strong, and the matchup should lead to a lot of advantageous looks. Kansas City boasts one of the highest implied team totals of the weekend. and he provides nice leverage off of the highest-owned quarterback on the weekend in Mahomes.
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