When the NFL’s schedule makers came up with Week 4’s Sunday Night Football contest, they likely envisioned something more grandiose. At one point, it could have been a legendary battle between Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers. Now, we’re left wondering how embarrassed the New York Jets will leave after a thorough shellacking from the defending Super Bowl champions. Player pick’ems are a fun way to stay entertained in what should be a very one-sided affair. Thankfully, we’ve got you covered.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are — and you can see more projection picks here.
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Chiefs-Jets NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Patrick Mahomes Higher 15.5 Rushing Yards
The metaphorical handing of the torch won’t play out as initially intended, but that doesn’t mean Patrick Mahomes won’t continue to shine. Early this season, the reigning MVP has fallen short of his award-winning benchmarks. Nevertheless, Mahomes should rekindle that form under the bright lights Sunday night.
Even though he hasn’t matched last year’s output, Mahomes still puts up elite metrics. The former 10th-overall selection is completing 65.5% of his throws for 7.1 yards per pass attempt and a 6.2% touchdown rate. Still, he’s saved his best work for the ground game en route to several career-best metrics.
Mahomes has taken off for 103 yards on 16 carries already this season. His 5.3 carries per game puts him on track for a new high mark in rushing attempts, while his 5.3 yards per carry would surpass his previous high of 5.9 from last year’s MVP campaign.
The best-case scenario for the Jets is that is that they bottle up the aerial assault, limiting the damage Mahomes and company can do through the air. However, Mahomes will still be able to break away in the running game, picking up meaningful yards and first downs for his squad. We wouldn’t be surprised to see Mahomes get all 16 yards needed on a single carry, but thankfully, he won’t need to.
Mahomes should easily exceed his modest rushing yards projection.
Editor’s Note: Mahomes’ rushing yards line is up to 16.5.
Dalvin Cook Higher 5.5 Rush Attempts
Missing out on most of training camp has put Dalvin Cook on the wrong side of the preparation spectrum. The four-time Pro Bowler is averaging 2.3 yards per carry with his new team, coming off the bench in all three outings. But that hasn’t stopped Robert Saleh from trying to get the most from Cook, and he should take on a supporting role again in Week 4.
Through three games, Cook has rushed the ball 25 times for 58 yards. What’s reflected in this is Saleh’s commitment to get his new running back involved to alleviate the pressure on his backup quarterback. And with a lingering knee issue limiting Breece Hall, Cook should expect a similar workload Sunday night.
Although he’s been used sparingly, most of the time Cook’s on the field, he’s the intended playmaker. The Florida State alum has taken to the gridiron for 60 snaps, with the ball ending up in his hands on 32 of those plays. Additionally, Cook has accumulated at least eight carries in two of his three games, a standard that shouldn’t change against the Chiefs.
Kansas City enters this AFC battle as prohibitive -8.5 road chalk. The longer the Jets can keep Mahomes off the field the better, and that likely means a renewed commitment to the run game. Cook will be there to lighten the load on Hall, furthering his own cause in terms of rushing attempts.
Editor’s Note: Cook’s rushing attempts line is up to 6.0.
Skyy Moore Lower 3.5 Receptions
As usual, the Chiefs have an embarrassment of offensive riches. Loaded with playmakers throughout their lineup, the challenge is always finding enough snaps to incorporate all of their skill players. Unfortunately for Skyy Moore, that means he’s likely reached his limit in terms of offensive contributions.
Moore is one of nine Chiefs players with at least seven targets this season. Worse, Moore has the worst catch rate of those seven players, grabbing a forgettable 53.8% of those looks. That’s the type of production that gets players moved down the depth chart, and we could already be starting to see that play out.
After a disappointing opening week in which he caught none of his three targets, Moore was relegated to the bench in Week 2. Similarly, his snap count decreased in each subsequent week. Moore played a season-best 69.2% of snaps in Week 1, following that up with 58.2% in Week 2 and 64.9% last week. Surely, less time on the field hurts Moore’s overall production metrics.
Granted, all of Moore’s catches have come over the last two weeks, but it’s evident that he’s not a priority in the passing game. Moore finished third on the team in target share last week and fourth the week before. A decreased workload combined with a suboptimal catch rate should leave Moore shy of his receptions projection Sunday.
