The intensity will be dialed up early in Week 4 as two NFC North foes battle it out for divisional supremacy. The 2-1 Green Bay Packers host the 2-1 Detroit Lions on Thursday night football, with the winner taking early control of the division. Both teams have been among the highest-scoring in the league; however, Detroit’s success is validated with solid underlying metrics, whereas the Packers have been less adept at moving the ball. That’s factoring into this betting line, making the Lions short road favorites at Lambeau Field.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are — and you can see more projection picks here.
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Lions-Packers NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Jared Goff Higher 1.5 Touchdown Passes
Jared Goff is a big reason why the Lions are off to such a great start this season. Through three games, the former first-overall selection is completing 69.9% of his passes for 8.0 yards per pass attempt for a career-best 101.6 quarterback rating. Goff should continue his magical start to the season on primetime.
There are several enticing props to pursue, but we’re leaning towards the higher on his touchdown passes, and there are a number of factors playing into this. First, Green Bay’s pass defense has been effective at stopping the run. Granted, they haven’t really been tested, but it might be hard for Goff to get the 258 yards needed when the Packers are allowing a paltry 199.7 per game.
Second, Goff is due for an increased scoring output. As noted, he’s putting up some of the best metrics in his career, but his touchdown rate doesn’t quite match that production. Goff’s completion and quarterback ratings are the best they’ve ever been, and he’s averaging the most yards per pass attempt since 2018. Still, he’s thrown only one touchdown pass in two of his three outings.
Goff is due for a breakout performance, and we like that to come against the Packers. The temptation is taking his passing yards number, but given the Packers’ defensive proficiencies, we’re deferring to Goff’s touchdown projection.
He should find the end zone at least twice on Thursday night.
Sam LaPorta Lower 4.5 Receptions
We’re taking a bit of a contrarian approach with our second pick. Not surprisingly, it hasn’t taken long for Goff to incorporate Sam LaPorta into the team’s offense. What is surprising is the amount of times Goff is throwing to his new tight end early this season. That trend might start to reverse against the Packers’ fierce pass defense.
Green Bay has been effective at neutralizing opponents’ aerial assault, and that’s even more pronounced against tight ends. Of the three tight ends they’ve faced, Cole Kmet had the most successful outing against the Packers. However, his five catches and 44 yards are nothing to write home about. Otherwise, Kyle Pitts was limited to catching two of his five targets for 15 yards while Juwan Johnson hauled in two of four for 12 yards.
Moreover, LaPorta is a regression candidate after a career-best performance in Week 3. On Sunday, LaPorta was targeted 11 times, grabbing eight of those for 84 yards. His breakaway 45-yard touchdown grab accounted for over half of those yards, and it’s unlikely he replicates that against the Packers. Further, with Josh Reynolds back in the lineup, LaPorta’s usage could take a hit.
A scorching start to his career has resulted in increased totals for LaPorta. With natural regression anticipated and a vaunted pass defense to contend with, we’re anticipating a more modest performance from LaPorta on Thursday night football.
Josh Reynolds Higher 2.5 Receptions
Where the Packers have been less successful is limiting opponents wide receivers. Last week, we saw Chris Olave torch them for 104 yards on four catches, with Michael Thomas playing a key supporting role with six receptions. Likewise, Drake London and Darrell Mooney have had similar performances against Green Bay. We like Josh Reynolds to pick up the slack with another strong showing.
Even with Amon-Ra St. Brown taking on a premier role, Reynolds has been a solid secondary contributor. Reynolds has an above-average 69.2% catch rate, the best of his career, while being thrown to 13 times in just two games. The Texas A&M product has at least four catches in both games, a benchmark he should maintain against the Packers.
Goff has made Reynolds a priority in the passing game, and we like that trend to continue against the Packers. With St. Brown facing more coverage issues, Reynolds has been a reliable outlet in the passing attack. Expect him to exceed three catches on TNF.
Romeo Doubs Higher 3.5 Receptions
Jordan Love and the Packers can fight fire with fire, turning to their own secret weapon in this divisional battle. After coming off the bench in Week 1, Romeo Doubs has established himself as a starter with the Packers offense. We got a glimpse of what he has to offer last week, and we should be ready for another high-volume contest.
In a Week 3 win over the New Orleans Saints, Doubs was targeted an astonishing 12 times. With the hosts projected to face a deficit against the Lions, Love will be tasked with throwing the ball more frequently for the second straight week.
At the start of the season, Jayden Reed was projected to be the top wide receiver for the Packers. However, an underwhelming 45% catch rate has dropped Reed a few rungs on the depth chart. Last week’s effort could be the new standard for Doubs as he continues to build chemistry with his new signal caller.
Lastly, opponents are having success moving the ball against the Lions. Detroit ranks in the bottom half of the league in passing yards and completions allowed. Both of those play into Doubs’ favor as he maintains his spot atop the pecking order. The second-year pro should go higher than 3.5 receptions.
