We have another DFS double-header on Monday night football, with the first matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 7:15 p.m. ET. The Eagles are listed as 5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 45 points.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Unsurprisingly, Jalen Hurts headlines the stud section and comes in as the highest-priced player on the slate. He had a down Week 1 in a difficult matchup with the Patriots but came back strong in Week 2 against Minnesota, running for two touchdowns and throwing for another en route to 26.22 DraftKings points.
The Eagles passing attack hasn’t really clicked to start the year, and it remains to be seen if tonight is the night when everything comes together. Tampa Bay took a very blitz-heavy approach in Week 1 against Kirk Cousins but then scaled it back in Week 2 against the mobile Justin Fields. Hurts has averaged just 5.1 yards per attempt when not blitzed this year compared to 8.8 yards when blitzed.
Last year, Hurts led the NFL in passes rating and averaged a solid 7.6 yards per attempt when not blitzed, so his struggles so far this year may just be a small sample size.
A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith come in just $200 apart on DraftKings. I was beating the drum for Brown over Smith last Thursday night, and boy, did that come back to bite me. Brown caught four of six targets for 29 yards, having a touchdown called back by penalty.
Smith turned in a stellar performance, as he was able to get loose behind the defense twice. He caught four of five targets for 131 yards and a touchdown.
Dating back to last year, we’ve seen Brown more involved when the other team is running man coverage, with a 31.7% target rate per route run against man versus just 21.9% against zone. Sadly, for him, Tampa Bay has played nearly 90% zone through two weeks.
However, we know Brown has voiced frustrations about his lack of usage, and Tampa Bay ranks in the bottom five in yards per target and yards per catch to opposing receivers. I think they prioritize Brown here, and once again, I prefer him to Smith.
Mike Evans has quietly had a great start to the year, with 50.7 DraftKings points through the first two games. This isn’t a stellar matchup, as James Bradberry and Darius Slay are awaiting him on the outside. However, Baker Mayfield is going to throw the ball his way, as there aren’t many other capable targets in the offense.
Mayfield has some sneaky upside in this spot, as it’s unlikely they’re able to see much success on the ground. Philadelphia has jumped ahead on both of their opponents, which has led to opposing offenses leaning on the passing game to catch up. Philadelphia has already given up over 300 yards through the air to Kirk Cousins and Mac Jones.
They’re also dealing with some injuries, as Avonte Maddox was placed on injured reserve. Bradberry and Reed Blankenship are expected back, which is a boost to the defense.
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NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Chris Godwin is the only other capable option at wide receiver for Tampa Bay. He’s certainly been behind Evans to start the year, but this matchup looks better for him. The loss of Maddox in the slot is quietly huge for Philadelphia.
With Maddox on the field last season, the Eagles allowed 6.4 yards per target and zero touchdowns to opposing slot receivers. With him off the field, they allowed 9.1 yards per target and eight touchdowns. That’s a massive difference.
Rachaad White has a great role with very limited competition, but he’s been extremely inefficient. He’s had 19 and 22 touches in the first two games, totaling 152 yards. He gets a daunting matchup tonight, as Philadelphia has allowed just 2.9 yards per carry through two games.
White should be able to get some passing volume, as the Eagles have allowed the fifth-most points through the air to opposing running backs. However, the matchup, coupled with his inefficiency, makes him a tough play.
D’Andre Swift ran wild last week against Minnesota, taking 28 carries for 175 yards and a touchdown while catching all three of his targets for 6 yards.
With Kenneth Gainwell back in the lineup, it’s unclear how the backfield will be split. Gainwell saw all the work in Week 1, with Swift barely seeing the field. I’d expect it to be close to a 50/50 split, with likely a slight lean to Swift. I prefer Gainwell to Swift when you include the salary, but both are solid options. We’ll see how ownership shakes out, though.
Dallas Goedert rebounded from his goose egg with seven targets but didn’t do much with them. He caught six balls for 22 yards on Monday night against Minnesota. He’s seen just a 10% first-read target rate, and he’s being utilized primarily on screen passes. I’d prefer to find the money for Godwin or drop to Gainwell.
Sean Tucker costs $5,000 as a backup who isn’t seeing that much work. He had seven touches in Week 1 and eight in Week 2, and this matchup is a nightmare on the ground for Tampa Bay. I’ll pass.
Cade Otton isn’t a flashy play, but he’s been solid for Tampa Bay. He caught all six of his targets for 41 yards this past Sunday. He’s been on the field for 76% of the team dropbacks, which is by far the most of anyone not named Godwin or Evans.
Tight ends have had success against Philadelphia to start the year, as they’ve allowed 17/92/3 to tight ends over the first two weeks.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them. Given the expected low-scoring nature, these options may be more appealing than usual.
- Trey Palmer ($600 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): Palmer is far too expensive on FanDuel, but he’s running a route on about 40% of the team dropbacks. He’s seen five targets through the first two weeks, and we could expect Tampa Bay to lean more on the pass tonight. He’s a viable punt on DraftKings.
- Olamide Zaccheaus ($200 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): With Quez Watkins out, Zaccheaus becomes an intriguing option in tournaments. Watkins was running a route on about 75% of the dropbacks, and now Zaccheaus will likely soak up the entirety of that role. I think he’s a solid roll of the dice in large field tournaments.
