NFL Week 3 features a 12-game main slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud
One man stands above the rest at the top of the quarterback heap this week: Patrick Mahomes ($8,300). Mahomes has been a bit of a disappointment from a fantasy perspective thus far in 2023, with scores of 20.54 and 25.20 in the first two weeks.
On the other hand, those would be solid numbers from nearly any other quarterback, which shows just how high our expectation is on Mahomes. More importantly, he played the first game without Travis Kelce ($7,200), and the second with Kelce on a limited snap count.
Assuming a full game from his top target this week, Mahomes has a chance for a much bigger game. The Chiefs are the only team on the board with a team total over 30, leading the slate by 2.5 points. While we aren’t expecting the Bears to push the pace much in this one, for this to be a blowout, Kansas City has to put up some points.
That tends to flow through Mahomes. The Chiefs lead the league in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) by a wide margin this season. They’ve consistently been at or near the top of that metric during Mahomes’ career, and it’s encouraging that they remain so despite a relatively weak wide receiver room.
Whether Mahomes can score enough to separate considerably from the field is a reasonable question, but he’s a safe pick to lead the position in scoring this week.
Value
This one depends a bit on your definition of value, with a mid-range quarterback and a cheaper option both standing out in various projection sets.
In the mid-range, we have Kirk Cousins ($6,900), whose Vikings are hosting the Chargers in the highest total game of the week. Vegas is expecting a shoot out here, with a 54-point total. Minnesota is almost as pass-happy as Kansas City this year — they rank second in PROE — so the majority of their scoring should come through Cousins and the passing game.
Minnesota also has a highly concentrated offense, with 50% of their targets this year split between Justin Jefferson ($9,300) and TJ Hockenson ($6,500). While that combination is expensive, it’s an easy stack to get to with Cousins. Additionally, the bringbacks on the Chargers’ side are equally obvious, so building around this game is easy for GPPs.
On the cheaper end of things is Geno Smith ($5,700). Seattle is expected to control the Panthers fairly easily here but will likely throw the ball to build their lead. The game environment doesn’t lend itself to a ceiling game for the Seattle passing attack, but he’s an excellent cash game play.
Quick Hits
As long as he’s healthy, Tua Tagovailoa ($7,000) will always be in a portion of my lineups for multi-entry play. Mainly thanks to the weapons at his disposal, he has a massive weekly ceiling. It’s easy to put up big scores when a screen pass to Tyreek Hill ($9,000) or Jaylen Waddle ($7,500) can go for a touchdown. It’s not an especially attractive week for the Dolphins offense, so their odds of a ceiling game are a bit lower, but they still have week-winning upside if they hit.
Home-game Jared Goff ($6,500) is also on my short list of weekly considerations. His splits (via our Trends tool) make it easy to see why:
Jared Goff Home/Road Splits Since the Start of 2022 NFL Season
This is a sneaky-good situation for Goff and the Lions’ passing attack. With running back David Montgomery ruled out for Week 3, they’re likelier to skew more pass-heavy than usual. Goff is currently projecting for 1% ownership in our models.
Finally, the other side of the Chargers/Vikings game is worth a look as well. We have Justin Herbert ($7,500) projected a bit ahead of Cousins, though not quite enough to justify the price jump. However, his primary receivers, Mike Williams ($6,000) and Keenan Allen ($7,600), are considerably cheaper than their Vikings counterparts, making the full stack more attainable.
With Herbert projecting for lower ownership, I’d rather roster him in deeper-field tournaments.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud
Just like at quarterback, there’s a wide gap between the top option and everybody else. With no Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley, or Nick Chubb on the main slate, Tony Pollard ($8,000) is in a class of his own.
His 11 targets through two games are tied for third among running backs (discounting McCaffrey, who’s played three games), and he trails only Derrick Henry in carries (against discounting CMC.) That’s, by far, the best workload of any player at the position.
It also comes for one of the league’s best offenses, which gives him plenty of scoring opportunities. Now, with the backfield largely to himself, he has a rare opportunity to get both goal-line and passing-down opportunities.
He should have plenty of chances this week against the Cardinals, with Dallas favored by 12.5. Running backs who fit his profile — at least two targets AND two red zone opportunities per game — tend to smash as favorites of at least a touchdown:
He’ll be somewhat popular this week, but he’s worth rostering in all contest types.
Value
The value running backs are interesting this week, with a rash of injuries and signings at the position shaking things up. There’s still plenty of uncertainty as of this writing (Friday afternoon), but we’ve got clarity on some spots.
Austin Ekeler is out, which means lead-back duties should again go to Joshua Kelley ($5,400). Kelley was one of last week’s most popular players but posted a disappointing 3.9 DraftKings points.
I pointed out the potential risk on Kelley last week, but he’s in a much better spot this time around. They faced the Titans last week, one of the more notorious pass-funnel offenses in the league. Kelley handled 13 of the Chargers 18 running back carries last week and should have a similar slice of a larger pie in Week 3.
He should also be far more efficient this week, with the Chargers having the best offensive line matchup on the slate. If he’s able to see another 15 or so carries at a reasonable efficiency — and punch in a touchdown — he can pay off his low salary even without much passing game involvement.
We could also get an ownership discount on Kelley, given his ostentatious failure last week. Playing last week’s highest-profile dud is a solid strategy in DFS tournaments.
Quick Hits
Cleveland lost Nick Chubb to the season last week and leaned heavily on Jerome Ford ($4,800) in his absence. Ford handled 16 carries and drew three targets against the Steelers, finishing with over 27 DraftKings points. Things are different this week, though.
Cleveland re-signed old friend Kareem Hunt ($4,600) to share backfield duties, and they’re facing the aforementioned pass-funnel defense of the Titans. Cleveland certainly wants to be a run-first team, but the combination of the matchup and lack of Chubb may push them to the air.
It’s also hard to say how opportunities get divided this week in Cleveland. Generally, we’d expect a mid-week acquisition to need some time to get accustomed to the playbook. However, Hunt played four years in Cleveland and is likely just as up-to-speed as Ford. Both players are more of a “3rd down back” archetype, so it’s tough to figure out their roles. I’ll mix in a bit of both this week.
Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,600) should also see a larger role with the starter in Detroit going down. However, the Lions elevated Zonovan Knight from the practice squad and split the work roughly evenly between Gibbs and Craig Reynolds ($4,400) last week. The explosive Gibbs should at least have the passing-game role sewn up though, making him a “bet on talent” play.
The only player outside of Pollard to fit the trend highlighted above is Travis Etienne ($6,900). He has a Pollard-esque role but fell victim to a negative game script last week in Kansas City. The Jaguars are big favorites again, so they’re somewhat likely to feed Etienne against a Texans front ranked 23rd by PFF coming into the season.
He’s store-brand Pollard this week, with savings in both salary and ownership.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud
We’ve touched on the two top wide receivers by raw projections this week already — Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill. They lead the field by a wide margin but with an equally wide gap in salary. I prefer Jefferson of the pair as it stands, though Hill would jump past him if Jaylen Waddle (concussion) misses in Week 3.
A bit farther down the salary scale is my favorite wide receiver pick of the week — Mike Williams ($6,000). The one-time deep threat for the Chargers has quietly seen a shifting role in 2023 with a virtually identical average depth of target (aDOT) as his teammate Keenan Allen ($7,600).
The increase in catchable balls raises Big Mike’s floor considerably here, especially in a full-PPR scoring system. Last week without Austin Ekeler, he saw 13 targets, catching eight of them for 83 yards. That was a solid score, even without a touchdown, and he won’t be held out of the end zone forever.
The 6’4″ Williams is the Chargers’ best red zone weapon — especially without Ekeler at the goal line — and he caught nine touchdowns in his last fully healthy season. Adding a touchdown to his stat line from last week gives him a very good score. Multiple touchdowns or the 100-yard bonus would propel him into “have to have it” territory.
He’s got a solid shot at either or both of those milestones, given the game environment, while currently projecting behind Allen in ownership. He’s a near-must for cash games and an excellent bringback on Cousins stacks or partner with Herbert for GPPs.
Value
The Texans drafted Tank Dell ($3,600) in the third round of the 2023 NFL draft, and he could be their top receiver in the near future. He drew 10 targets last week — leading the team — and finished with a 7/72/1 line.
He should see plenty of short area looks as Houston looks to make things easy for their rookie quarterback, C.J. Stroud ($5,300). That gives Dell opportunities to make things happen with the ball in his hands. The undersized Dell isn’t a straight-line burner, but he has elite quickness:
With Houston as 8.5-point underdogs, there should be plenty of passing to go around, making him one of the top Pts/Sal options at the position.
Quick Hits
DraftKings seemed to have missed the memo that Josh Reynolds ($4,200) is the No. 2 option in Detroit. He’s priced like a low-end WR3 but has double-digit scores in each of the last two weeks. With David Montgomery out, Detroit will be passing more than usual, making him a value at his price tag. He has a 98% Bargain Rating on DraftKings this week.
Similarly, they’ve left the price too low on Jayden Reed ($3,800), the Packers’ de facto WR1, until Christian Watson returns. He’s also benefitting from the injury to running back Aaron Jones, who might lead the Packers in targets when healthy. Reed’s the current leader, though, with both of those two sidelined. Keep an eye on our NFL newsfeed on Sunday morning, though. Both players have a shot at returning — with Jones considerably more likely — and either coming back would tank Reed’s value. He’s a contrarian pivot from Tank Dell this week.
Most of the attention is on Pollard this week, thanks to the game script, but it’s also a solid setup for CeeDee Lamb ($7,700). Dallas is likely to get off to a big lead, at least partially through the air, and Lamb has a 37.22% share of the Cowboys’ air yards on the season. With all the attention on other expensive wideouts and Pollard, he could go overlooked in Week 3.
Ditto for Stefon Diggs ($8,100) who’s averaging 10 targets per game on the young season. Buffalo has struggled to get much going with their other receivers, feeding Diggs nearly twice as many targets as any other player on the team.
There’s a chance the Bills get such a big lead he’s not needed here, but an equal chance that lead came through Diggs’ touchdowns.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud
Do we really even need this section? Any time the Chiefs are on the main slate (and he’s healthy), Travis Kelce ($7,200) is the top tight end. He’s a clear cut above the rest of the position, with the ideal mix of talent, quarterback, and play calling to lead the slate on a weekly basis.
He seemed to be on a bit of a snap count last week as he recovered from injury, playing around 65% of the Chiefs snaps. He still posted a reasonable stat line, with four catches for 26 yards and a touchdown. I expect him to be closer to his usual role this week as he approaches full strength.
With the poor receiver play in Kansas City, Kelce could challenge the league’s top receivers in terms of market share of targets and air yards on a weekly basis. He should be thought of as a fourth (or fifth) wide receiver option, with his ceiling projection coming in sixth among all wideouts/tight ends.
I’m probably staying away from Kelce in cash games this week, though. The Chiefs are favored by double digits, and it would make sense to take it easy on him if this one gets out of hand. He’s an excellent tournament play, though, especially if paired with some Bears options.
Kelce probably needs the Bears to keep this somewhat competitive to get to a true ceiling outcome, so consider rostering him with a Chicago bring-back for GPPs.
Value
It’s a bit less clear on the budget end of tight end this week, so we’ll touch on a few options. Chigoziem Okonkwo ($3,200) currently leads our Pts/Sal rankings, but it’s a pretty fragile projection. He didn’t catch a single pass in Week 1 — narrowly missing on a deep touchdown — but saw four targets last week, catching them all for 35 yards. He has a solid ceiling, in theory, thanks to a deep route tree, but Ryan Tannehill ($5,000) would need to connect on one of the passes for it to matter.
The corpse of Zach Ertz ($3,500) continues to draw a massive target share for the Cardinals, but mostly due to a lack of other options in Arizona. He’s averaging under six yards per reception but has six catches in each of the last two weeks. He’s a great bet for a non-zero score, but it’s hard to see him offering much upside. That’s enough for me in cash games, but I’m staying away in tournaments.
Finally, Sam LaPorta looks like the real deal for the Lions. The rookie first-round pick has done as much as any rookie tight end in memory, with ten catches for 102 yards through two games. With Detroit likely to throw more this week, he’s a solid option near the bottom of the salary range.
Quick Hits
The midrange at tight end is interesting this week. Depending on your definition, it’s primarily the aforementioned TJ Hockenson and Mark Andrews ($6,000).
Hockenson has shown why he deserved the contract extension he signed just before the season, emerging as the Vikings’ No. 2 option in the passing game behind Justin Jefferson. The Vikings are happy to feed him on underneath routes while Jefferson clears space over the top while also looking his way in the red zone. He’s a solid piece of Vikings/Chargers stacks, though I’d probably look to find the extra $700 for Kelce unless I’m building around this game.
After missing Week 1, Andrews reasserted his status atop the Ravens pecking order with eight targets in Week 2. He could see an even bigger target share this week, as O’Dell Beckham ($4,500) is on the wrong side of questionable. The game environment might not be ideal, with Baltimore favored by 8.5 points, but Andrews could fall into a touchdown or two before the Ravens switch to clock-killing mode.
I don’t mind playing Andrews by himself this week — we’re unlikely to get strong scores from multiple pass catchers in this game — but he won’t be a priority.
Roster Construction
This week seems fairly wide open for tournaments, with a few games likely to produce some big scores. Most of the field will — and absolutely should — roster a piece or two from the Chargers-Vikings game, which stands out with its 54-point total.
In smaller field tournaments, I’m happy to eat the chalk with the “obvious” plays in that game. Either of the quarterbacks paired with their two primary pass catchers (Herbert/Allen/Williams or Cousins/Jefferson/Hockenson) and a bringback from the other side.
We can get contrarian elsewhere.
In larger field tournaments like the Milly Maker, we can still build around this game while getting a bit more contrarian. Either team could get out to a lead and run the ball more than expected, which would make Josh Kelley and Alexander Mattison ($5,800) interesting plays. Both put up fairly high-profile duds last week and sometimes the best strategy is to target last week’s disappointments.
I’m also intrigued by the Bears-Chiefs game. Most of the field will be building around Mahomes and Kelce, but this one needs Justin Fields ($7,100) to truly shoot out. You could roster Fields naked — banking on rushing production — with Kelce coming back. You’d still get the bulk of Mahomes’ production through Kelce, which correlates strongly with Fields being serviceable.
I’m expecting a lot of “Stars and Scrubs” lineups this week as the field builds lineups around Pollard, Jefferson, and Hill. Those lineups will mostly have cheaper running backs, with all of the value options opening up this week. Breaking away from that construction with some mid-range players should provide a ton of leverage.
That makes players like CeeDee Lamb and Travis Etienne extra appealing this week, though be sure to correlate appropriately. Pairing Etienne with Texans pass catchers makes some sense, as Houston will be throwing more with a Jaguars lead.
The Falcons-Lions game is another one worth targeting that seems to be overlooked by the field. Ford Field is the new Coors Field of Fantasy Football, joining US Bank stadium in Minnesota as the only location to produce positive quarterback Plus/Minus scores over the last two seasons:
That’s still not enough to get me interested in Desmond Ridder ($5,000) but Goff and the Lions pass catchers are projecting to be massively under-owned, and Bijan Robinson ($7,800) makes an excellent bring-back.
It’s the usual story at defense, with chalk likely to form around Buffalo ($2,900) making the best play in GPPs “anyone else.” The opposing unit, Washington ($2,400), might be my favorite, thanks to their solid pass rush and Josh Allen’s high-risk style. Defensive scoring is nearly random, though, so don’t go overweight on any one unit.
For a more in-depth look at each position, be sure to check out our positional breakdowns by Matt Martin or any of our other NFL Content.
Good luck this week!
