In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Quarterback Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are three quarterbacks near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Patrick Mahomes
- Justin Herbert
- Geno Smith
We’ll discuss why these three are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks.
Top Model NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Patrick Mahomes ($8,300 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5) vs. Chicago Bears (47.5 total)
After a middling Week 1, the return of Travis Kelce helped Patrick Mahomes to return to form and turn in a solid fantasy performance against the Jaguars. Mahomes threw for 305 yards while completing 70.7% of his passes for 7.4 yards per attempt. He had two touchdowns to one interception while adding 30 yards on the ground.
Chicago has allowed the eighth-most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks this year, and they haven’t faced the stiffest competition. Jordan Love and Baker Mayfield carved up the Bears’ defense with 9.1 and 9.3 yards per attempt, respectively.
People may worry about blowout risk, but I think it’s overblown. If the Chiefs go up 35-7 in the third quarter, how do you think they got to 35 points? Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon combining for four rushing touchdowns? I don’t think so.
Mahomes carries the highest median and ceiling projections at the position this week. Despite the high price tag, he looks like a great option.
Mahomes is the top quarterback in our Cash Game Model.
Justin Herbert ($7,500 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (+1) at Minnesota Vikings (54.5 total)
The Chargers and Vikings game will surely be talked about all week, as it boasts a whopping 54.5 total between two exciting offenses who are desperately trying to avoid falling to 0-3 on the year.
Justin Herbert had a great stat line last week in their loss to the Titans. He completed 27-of-41 passes for 305 yards and two touchdowns en route to 25.2 DraftKings points.
We also saw a more aggressive version of Herbert, which may have been due to the absence of Austin Ekeler. Herbert threw for 10.8 air yards per pass attempt, which was the third-highest mark in his career. Under 10% of his attempts were at or behind the line of scrimmage, as it was the third-lowest rate of his career.
If Ekeler misses again, we could see a similar game plan. The Chargers also faced Tennessee last week, who are a massive pass funnel, so they may have skewed their gameplan more to take advantage through the air.
Minnesota’s defense is designed to limit downfield passing, as they play almost all zone coverage and lead the league in Cover 2 snaps. Minnesota has allowed just six completions on throws more than 10 yards downfield on the year.
However, Herbert has elite weapons around him against a middling defense in a game with a 54.5-point total. There’s not much to overthink.
Herbert is a strong option this weekend, as he’s the top quarterback in our Tournament Model.
Geno Smith ($5,700 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel): Seattle Seahawks (-6) vs. Carolina Panthers (42 total)
After a horrid Week 1, Geno Smith and the Seahawks bounced back with a 37-31 win over the Detroit Lions. Smith completed 78% of his passes, throwing for 328 yards and two touchdowns on his way to 26.12 DraftKings points.
Seattle was down both of their starting tackles last week, but it shouldn’t be too much of an issue this week, as Carolina is second-to-last in the league in pressure rate. Carolina has also allowed the seventh-fewest DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks on the year, but that comes against Desmond Ridder and Derek Carr. Smith isn’t a world-beater, but the Seahawks boast a better passing offense than the Saints and Falcons.
He leads the position in Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary, as his price tag opens up a lot in roster construction. He also boasts the eighth-highest median projection on the week while being priced as the 14th-most expensive quarterback.
Smith provides some nice salary relief in a soft matchup, and he’s the top quarterback in Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon’s Pro Models.
Other Notable NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Josh Allen ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (-6.5) at Washington Commanders (43.5 total)
Josh Allen looked more like himself in Week 2 against the Raiders. He threw for 274 yards and three touchdowns en route to 23.66 DraftKings points.
This offense has had somewhat of a different style through two games, as they’re utilizing the short-passing game. Allen has 42 completions on throws within five yards of the line of scrimmage, which is the most in the NFL. They’re utilizing 12 personnel more with Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid on the field and getting James Cook more involved in the passing game.
However, he still has Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, and Allen is always dangerous with his legs.
The worry this week comes with the weather, as they’re expecting a tropical cyclone in the DC area. Sounds scary.
This will keep ownership very low on Buffalo, and rightfully so. However, they still have a healthy team total, and if the weather shows any signs of optimism, it may be worthwhile to get Allen at probably a season-low in ownership.
Kirk Cousins ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel): Minnesota Vikings (-1) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (54 total)
Kirk Cousins was absolutely slinging it on last Thursday night against the Eagles. He completed 31-of-44 passes for 364 yards and four touchdowns on his way to 32.56 DraftKings points. He now gets a softer matchup against the Chargers, who have allowed the second-most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks on the year.
Ryan Tannehill looked absolutely washed in Week 1 and then found the fountain of youth in his matchup against the Chargers. He completed 20-of-24 passes for 246 yards and one touchdown while running in another. If Tannehill is able to post a solid stat line against the Chargers, then who knows what Cousins can do?
Cousins had multiple offensive linemen out last week against Philadelphia, and it didn’t matter. Cousins looks like he’ll get a lot of ownership this week, but it is well-warranted.
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My Favorite NFL DFS Quarterback Leverage Pick(s)
Tua Tagovailoa ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel): Miami Dolphins (-6.5) vs. Denver Broncos (48 total)
A matchup with the New England Patriots is never easy, but Tua Tagovailoa was methodical against the Patriots last Sunday night. He completed 70% of his passes for 249 yards, averaging 8.3 yards per attempt while throwing one touchdown and one interception. He carved up the Chargers in Week 1, showing his very high ceiling with a 32.14-point DraftKings point performance.
He gets a very exploitable matchup against the Broncos, who have barely been able to stop Jimmy Garoppolo and Sam Howell. Denver has allowed the fourth-highest completion percentage, seventh-most yards per attempt, and fifth-highest touchdown rate to opposing quarterbacks on the year.
Tua is priced right around Kirk Cousins, who will undoubtedly be one of if not the highest-owned quarterbacks on the weekend. Tyreek Hill is a prime stacking partner who will also provide some leverage off of the similarly priced Justin Jefferson. However, wide receiver leverage is for another article!
Tua will certainly go overlooked this week, and he has a high ceiling on one of the most potent offenses in the league in an advantageous matchup.
I’ll have some exposure to Tagovailoa in tournaments this week.
