In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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Top NFL DFS Running Back Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are two running backs near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Tony Pollard
- Jerome Ford
We’ll discuss why these two are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other running backs.
Top Model NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Tony Pollard ($8,000 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel): Dallas Cowboys (-12.5) at Arizona Cardinals (43 total)
Tony Pollard has an absolutely elite role in this Dallas offense and should be on your radar every week. He had 14 carries and two targets in their Week 1 drubbing of the Giants and had 25 carries and eight targets last week against the Jets.
He’s been uncharacteristically inefficient with his touches, which is very unlike him. He’s consistently been a big play waiting to happen, and I’m expecting him to rattle off some big plays soon.
Pollard has played in five games now since 2020 without Ezekiel Elliott, totaling 31.2, 33.7, 21.8, 22.2, and 19.9 fantasy points. We also just saw a top back, Saquon Barkley, have a massive game against Arizona. He had 17 carries for 63 yards and a touchdown while catching six of seven targets for 29 yards and a touchdown.
Pollard boats the highest median and ceiling projections on the week while also ranking second in Points/Salary.
He looks like a smash in this matchup and is the top back in Chris Raybon’s Pro Model, as well as our Cash and Tournament Models.
Jerome Ford ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel): Cleveland Browns (-3.5) vs. Tennessee Titans (39.5 total)
For the third week in a row, we get a viable, cheap running back against this daunting Titans’ run defense. With Nick Chubb now lost for the season, Jerome Ford becomes the next man up. He parlayed 19 touches into 131 yards and a receiving touchdown on Monday Night. He was also tackled on the one-yard line on a 69-yard run as well.
Cleveland added Kareem Hunt, but they phased him out of the offense last year and tried to trade him. He’ll likely operate on third downs, while Ford will take the base down work and a little bit of the passing game worked in there.
The role is valuable, but this matchup is no joke. Tennessee has allowed a league-low 2.6 yards per carry to opposing backs on the year. Cleveland boasts a strong run game, so this will be strength on strength.
This seems like a situation to monitor ownership. If Ford looks like he’s going to be high-owned, then it is probably worth fading due to the matchup. If he’s not going to be owned due to the matchup, then I’ll make sure to have some shares.
With Austin Ekeler ruled out, Joshua Kelley will likely be the highest-owned back, which could bump down Ford’s ownership.
Ford is also the top back in Koerner’s Pro Model, ranking first in Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary.
Other Notable NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Travis Etienne Jr. ($6,900 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel): Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5) vs. Houston Texans (44.5 total)
Travis Etienne Jr. is establishing himself as the bell cow in this backfield. He handled 18 carries and five targets in Week 1 and saw 12 carries and three targets in a tough Week 2 matchup against Kansas City. Etienne has run a route on 66% of Jacksonville’s dropbacks while handling 74% and 88% of the backfield touches through two weeks.
He now gets a nice spot as a home favorite against the Texans. He averaged 9.4 yards per carry across 19 rushes in his two games against them last year. We also just watched Houston give up over 100 scrimmage yards to Zack Moss, who is a less-talented back in a less-talented offense.
Zack Moss ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel): Indianapolis Colts (+8.5) at Baltimore Ravens (44 total)
Speaking of Zack Moss, he stepped into a massive role last week with Indianapolis. He had 18 carries for 88 yards and a touchdown while catching four of four targets for 19 yards. He played on 98% of the snaps while handling 86% of the team’s rush attempts. His role through the air was promising as well, running a route on 91% of the dropbacks and seeing a 13% target share.
The matchup is a little worrisome, as Baltimore has allowed just 3.6 yards per carry to opposing running backs. The Colts are also a road underdog, so touchdown equity might be low.
However, he undeniably has an elite role in this offense.
Joshua Kelley ($5,400 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (+1) at Minnesota Vikings (54 total)
Ekeler is out this week, which thrusts Joshua Kelley back into contention as one of the top options on the weekend. He struggled last week against Tennessee, but the Titans are probably the worst matchup for opposing RBs. Kelley will see a healthy amount of carries, but his lack of passing-game work really lowers his floor. He had just one target last week.
The good news is that this matchup is exploitable. The Vikings are 31st in the league in success rate on running back carries. We also just saw D’Andre Swift destroy this defense, carrying the ball 28 times for 175 yards and a touchdown. Minnesota is so focused on not allowing big pass plays that they’re fine giving you six yards at a time on the ground. Kelley will certainly be efficient with his touches this weekend.
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My Favorite NFL DFS Runningback Leverage Pick(s)
Kenneth Walker III ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel): Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) vs. Carolina Panthers (42 total)
With Geno Smith projecting to see a solid chunk of ownership and Kenneth Walker III stepping into a great matchup, he’s one of my favorite running back plays on the week. The Panthers’ defense ranks 28th in EPA allowed per rush and 26th in rushing success rate.
His role’s been strong to start the year, with 29 carries and seven targets through two weeks. He’s seeing a healthy 16% target rate per route run while playing on all of the short down and distance snaps and 80% of the inside-the-five snaps on the year.
This is also exactly the spot to target Walker historically. He averaged 20.3 fantasy points per game in wins of 5 or more points since the start of last season, which is second in the league behind Austin Ekeler. Carolina is currently a 5.5-point favorite over Carolina.
Walker ranks fourth in Projected Plus/Minus and looks like a strong option in tournaments this week.
