Week 3 opens with a Thursday night football matchup between the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers at 8:15 p.m. ET. The 49ers are listed as 10.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 44.5 points.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Coming in $3,000 more expensive than any other player playing in Thursday night’s game, Christian McCaffrey headlines the stud section. He’s handled 42 carries for 268 yards and two touchdowns while catching six balls for 36 yards in just two games.
Kyle Shanahan has said that the running back rotation so far has been a mistake, indicating that he wants less of a workload on McCaffrey. While there is likely merit to these statements, it doesn’t change the fact that McCaffrey has an elite workload in a plus matchup. Tony Pollard totaled 82 yards and a touchdown against New York, while James Conner had 106 yards and a touchdown last week.
McCaffrey looks like a smash play on Thursday and is a strong option in all formats.
The juxtaposition of Daniel Jones‘ Week 1 and Week 2 statlines is astounding. He didn’t eclipse 150 yards from scrimmage or find the end zone in Week 1 en route to 6.46 DraftKings points. In Week 2, Jones threw for 321 yards and two touchdowns while running for 59 yards and a touchdown en route to 34.74 points.
New York came out flat but battled back from a 21 down to win on the road in Arizona. Could that comeback galvanize their season and lead to a strong performance in San Francisco? Maybe, maybe not. The absence of Saquon Barkley will certainly hurt that.
Barkley’s absence could lead to a more pass-heavy approach and even get Jones more involved in the running game. Jones has averaged just 4.0 yards per attempt while throwing two interceptions against pressure this year. If the San Francisco pass rush can get home, it could be a long night.
Brock Purdy was able to salvage his score last week with a rushing touchdown, posting 14.74 DraftKings points. He didn’t find the end zone through the air for the first time in the regular season as a starter.
We’re not expecting this trend to continue, as the Giants are the only team in the NFL without a sack and are 20th in pressure rate. Purdy also seems to be underpriced, at least on DraftKings. He’s a cash game lock and is a solid option in tournaments as well.
Deebo Samuel returned to form last week. He caught six of nine targets for 63 yards while running for 38 yards and a touchdown on five carries. He finished with 22.1 DraftKings points, and it would’ve been more if Purdy hadn’t missed him for a walk-in touchdown.
Brandon AIyuk is currently listed as questionable, and I’m tentatively expecting him not to suit up. With Aiyuk off the field since 2021, Samuel has been targeted 36 times on 90 routes run, good for a 40% rate. It’s unclear how much of a passing attack will be needed, as the 49ers are double-digit favorites. However, Samuel doesn’t need much volume to pay off as he is a big play waiting to happen.
If Aiyuk were to suit up, he would become an intriguing tournament option. With Purdy under center, Aiyuk has seen a team-high 25% target rate per route run against man coverage. The Giants are an aggressive defense that heavily utilizes man, which would set up Aiyuk as a prime beneficiary.
There’s a chance that he’d be heavily limited if he plays, so just make sure to pay attention to pregame reports. I’m currently expecting Aiyuk to sit.
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NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Darren Waller was a focal point of New York’s offense in Week 2. He led the team in routes run and team target share. He saw eight targets, catching six balls for 76 yards.
His role is strong, but the matchup is brutal. The 49ers allowed just 6.2 and 6.5 yards per target to opposing tight ends in 2022 and 2021, respectively. They’ve allowed a combined 15 yards and a touchdown on four catches to Tyler Higbee and Pat Freiermuth.
Waller is more than a traditional tight end and more of a weapon than Higbee and Freiermuth. I’m bullish on the strong workload, so he is somewhat appealing. I’m higher on Waller than the market in this spot, especially with Barkley out of the lineup. The matchup is difficult, so he’ll likely need a lot of volume to pay off.
Speaking of Barkley being inactive, Matt Breida looks to be the prime beneficiary and slot in as the lead back. Gary Brightwell will likely work in as well. Breida and Brightwell have 18 and 13 snaps on the year. In one game where Barkley missed last season, Breida saw eight targets, catching seven balls for 12 yards, and had four carries for 28 yards.
Breida looks like a solid mid-tier option, and he’ll see lower ownership than Waller and George Kittle, who he is priced between. Brightwell is a solid tournament pivot, but he’ll need to have a legitimate role to pay off his price tag.
Kitlte has had a slow start to the year, with just 49 yards on six catches through two games. If Aiyuk were to miss, that would be a big bump for Kittle. Since 2021, Kittle has seen a target on 27% of his routes with Aiyuk off the field.
The Giants have allowed the second-most targets to in-line tight ends this year, which is where Kittle runs over 50% of his routes. Things are brewing for a Kittle explosion week on Thursday night.
Isaiah Hodgins is the most expensive of the New York Giants receivers, coming off a five-target game, catching four balls for 40 yards and a touchdown. He’s a fine option, but price considered, he’s my least favorite of the Giants’ starting receiving corps. He ran fewer routes than Darius Slayton and Parris Campbell last week against Arizona.
Slayton led the way in routes run while catching three of six targets for 62 yards. Campbell also saw six targets, catching four balls for 21 yards.
The 49ers have given up the third-highest catch rate to opposing receivers on the year, where Hodgins runs 86.7% of his routes. Slayton isn’t far behind at 59%, but Campbell is primarily a lower aDOT slot receiver, with only 19.5% of his routes on the perimeter.
Campbell looks to have a soft-ish matchup in the middle, as San Francisco has allowed the third-most DraftKings points to opposing slot receivers. I’d rank these three as Slayton –> Campbell –> Hodgins.
Jalin Hyatt is far too expensive for his rotational role. Hyatt has three total targets in two games. I don’t see much appeal here, but he could haul in a deep target for a touchdown. He’s somehow third on the team in air yards share with just the three total targets,
Jauan Jennings has primarily been San Francisco’s slot receiver but could see an expanded role if Aiyuk were to miss. His price is a little too expensive regardless of Aiyuk’s status in my opinion, as he’s simply not that utilized in the offense. He needs to find the end zone to pay off.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them. Given the expected low-scoring nature, these options may appear to be less optimal, but this will likely lead to them being overlooked. San Francisco’s defense is priced up, but they’ll see some ownership. I’ll personally be underweight, but I understand the play.
- Elijah Mitchell ($2,400 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Elijah Mitchell is one of my top plays on the slate, as he’s been in every build I’ve made so far. Kyle Shanahan’s coach speak was encouraging, saying that McCaffrey has been utilized too much and Mitchell needs more of a role. Even if this isn’t true, Mitchell could still pay off if San Francisco gets up big.
- Wan’Dale Robinson ($200 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Robinson is returning from a torn ACL suffered in the middle of last season. He had a solid rookie campaign, with 23/227/1 across six games last year. He had 13 targets in the game in which his torn ACL, showing the upside he flashed towards the end of his rookie campaign. He’s reported to make his debut tonight, but his role is unclear. I think it’s worth taking a shot on him at minimum price.
