And just like that we’re already on to Week 2.
The defending NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles host the Minnesota Vikings in a crucial early-season NFC matchup. Philadelphia held on by the slimmest of margins in Week 1, needing to stop two New England Patriots drives in the waning moments of Sunday’s victory. The Vikings weren’t as fortunate, dropping their home opener to the lowly Tampa Bay Buccaneers. We’re anticipating more robust offensive showings from a few players on Thursday night.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
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Lions-Chiefs NFL Player Prop Picks
Alexander Mattison Higher 12.5 Rushing Attempts
As we saw on Sunday, there’s no one on the Vikings’ roster who will compete with Alexander Mattison for touches out of the backfield. Mattison played 47 of 64 snaps against the Bucs, rushing the ball 11 times in the loss. He’s in line for an increase in touches as the Vikings set sail for their first road game of the season.
Look for Minnesota to establish the run early against the Eagles. Playing on the road comes with a unique set of challenges, and that is more pronounced on a short week. Handing the ball off to Mattison allows the Vikings to control the clock and set the tone early, keeping Philadelphia’s offense off the field.
We saw New England push the pace against the Eagles last week, and the Vikings should employ a similar strategy tonight. A heavy dose of the rushing attack sets up the passing game, with Mattison shouldering most of the workload.
Moreover, Ty Chandler won’t be stealing touches from Mattison. Chandler carried the ball three times in Week 1, generating no yards. Although he could be used as a change of pace rusher occasionally, Mattison is the clear-cut feature back for the Vikings.
Mattison’s advantage is also reflected in the FantasyLabs player model. He’s projected to carry the ball 13.3 times, validating our stance higher than 12.5 rushing attempts.
D’Andre Swift Higher 32.5 Rushing Yards
Week 1 was a forgettable performance from the Eagles. Philadelphia churned out just 251 total yards as road favorites against the Pats. Nevertheless, we’re betting that’s an exception to an otherwise impressive rule.
D’Andre Swift was grounded in his first game as an Eagle. The former second-round pick carried the ball once, nabbing one of two targets in the 25-20 victory. Still, there are a few factors pointing toward Swift making a bigger impact in Week 2.
First, Kenneth Gainwell has been ruled out of the contest. The Eagles’ lead back is dealing with a rib injury, forcing Swift to take on a more prominent role on offense. Secondly, the Vikings don’t stack up well against the run. Last year, Minnesota finished in the bottom third of the league in rushing yards allowed and should be exposed by the Eagles on a short week.
We’ve seen flashes from Swift throughout his career, and we don’t expect him to miss against the Vikings. Rushing will be the priority for the Eagles as they look to get their offense back on track, and Swift will get the lion’s share of touches out of the backfield.
An increased workload against a suspect defense should help him surpass his modest rushing yard total.
Justin Jefferson Higher 0.5 Receiving Touchdowns
Arguably, no player means more to his offense than Justin Jefferson. Since landing with the Vikings, the reigning Offensive Player of the Year has been the biggest piece of Minnesota’s offensive pie. That was even more evident after Week 1’s performance, a standard we expect him to improve on in Week 2.
Jefferson posted a pedestrian 150 receiving yards, hauling in nine of 12 targets in Week 1. His 75.0% catch rate was tied for third on the team, but his 27.3% target share was easily his most impressive feat. Despite the team-leading metrics, Jefferson failed to find the end zone. That opening week anomaly should come to a halt on Thursday.
The Eagles defense underwent a bit of a facelift this past offseason, and the early returns aren’t good. Philly gave up 316 passing yards and three passing touchdowns to the Patriots in Week 1, the fourth-most yards allowed in the opening week of the season. The Eagles will face an even stiffer challenge from Jefferson and the Vikings tonight while missing two key players from their secondary.
The chemistry between Jefferson and Kirk Cousins is undeniable. Jefferson is the fabric of the Vikings’ offense and will continue to lead the way in receptions, targets, and receiving yards. More importantly, we’re anticipating he makes headway in the touchdown category, starting Thursday night against the Eagles.
