Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS. It can also be one of the most valuable, as my Week 1 analysis led me to rostering Aaron Jones in my tournament winning lineup.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical. As the season rolls in, metrics like adjusted line yard and pressure rate are a good way to judge a team’s strengths and weaknesses.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
The Data
Below is a table featuring every offense’s combined adjusted line yards and pressure rate combined with the opposing defensive units. Adjusted line yards are a Football Outsiders (now at FTN) statistic that quantifies how much of a team’s rushing yards gained/allowed are attributable to the offensive or defensive lines. Adjusted sack rate measures sacks against down-and-distance rates to quantify how many more or fewer sacks on average a team is recording/allowing.
With adjusted line yards, higher numbers are better for the offensive unit. With pressure rate, lower numbers are better. Both factors should be considered, though. For example, a running back will score more fantasy points on average when his team’s passing attack is functioning well, and vice versa for quarterbacks.
In Week 5 these numbers will become matchup adjusted, and we’ll lean more heavily on them. Until then, we’ll be using 202 data and the rankings mentioned above to decide on the matchups.
This year, I’m switching from sack rate to pressure rate to try to eliminate quarterback play from the analysis. However, high pressure rate can be a good thing for rushing quarterbacks — they’re more likely to scramble when under duress, which is great for DFS production.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Green Bay Packers OL (#1 in Combined Line Yards, #6 in Combined Pressure Rate) vs. Atlanta Falcons DL
Last week, Green Bay took on PFF’s 31st-ranked offensive line in the Chicago Bears. This week, they draw only a slightly tougher matchup with the 27th-ranked Falcons.
Green Bay turned in a highly efficient performance in those conditions in Week 1. New franchise quarterback (maybe) Jordan Love ($5,500) threw for three passing touchdowns and over 9.0 yards per attempt. Aaron Jones ($6,600) handled only nine rushing attempts, but he produced 41 yards and another score.
If Atlanta — just 1.5-point underdogs — can keep things closer than the Bears did, Green Bay could add some volume to go with that efficiency this week. With one of the lowest totals on the week, this game shouldn’t draw much ownership, making it even more attractive for tournaments.
Tampa Bay Bucs OL (#4 in Combined Line Yards, #3 in Combined Pressure Rate) vs. Chicago Bears DL
Tampa Bay’s rebuilt offensive line looked surprisingly competent in Week 1. They kept Baker Mayfield ($5,100) sack-free on all but one of 34 passing attempts against an above-average Vikings front, though they struggled to produce much in the running game.
It should be much easier to generate rushing lanes against the Bears, who we’ll continually pick on in this space unless they turn things around in a big way. With Tampa Bay giving Rachaad White ($5,500) 17 carries in a close Week 1 game.
If they can combine that volume with some improved efficiency, White would be a massive value at his Week 2 price tag. My main interest is in the passing game, though. Mayfield completed more than half of his passes to the combination of Chris Godwin ($6,000) and Mike Evans ($6,200), who should be major fantasy factors if Baker gets time to throw.
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Kansas City Chiefs OL (#13 in Combined Line Yards, #2 in Combined Pressure Rate) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars DL
The Chiefs didn’t allow a single sack last week, despite taking on a Lions front that looked to have taken a major step forward. Much of the credit belongs to Patrick Mahomes ($8,300) over the offensive line, but it was still an encouraging sign.
Especially with security blanket Travis Kelce ($7,600) out of action, Mahomes had far fewer opportunities for quick dump-offs to his all-world tight end. This week, he’s facing a Jaguars front that ranks just behind the Lions in PFFs defensive line rankings — but will likely have Kelce back.
The difference between the Chiefs projection in the run game compared to the passing game says all you need to know about how to approach this one. This one should be a shootout, with both teams likely to give their quarterbacks plenty of time to work.
It’s my favorite game to target in DFS this week, especially if Kelce makes it back onto the field.
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
New York Giants DL (#2 in Combined Pressure Rate) vs. Arizona Cardinals OL
The Week 1 drubbing at the hands of the Cowboys probably isn’t a fair representation of the Giants. Especially their defense, given that this game was out of hand with two defensive touchdowns before the defense allowed any points.
As such, they didn’t really get a chance to pin their ears back and rush the passer. However, they’re a top-10 unit according to PFF this season and could finish even higher, depending on the progression of Kayvon Thibodeaux.
They draw Anderson’s 30th-ranked unit in the Cardinals, who gave up three sacks last week to the Commanders — who were missing their best pass rusher Chase Young.
With New York ($3,800) favored by 5.5 points here, they could pay off their relatively high salary if the game flow cooperates.
Tampa Bay Bucs (#4 in Combined Pressure Rate) vs. Chicago Bears OL
The Bears invested in their offensive line this offseason, drafting a right tackle in the first round. That might take some time to pay dividends, though, as Chicago allowed four sacks and gave away two turnovers last week against the Packers.
They’re also notably worse against the pass than the run. Per Anderson: “This unit shapes up as a strong run-blocking unit but still looks pretty bad against the pass. That works for a run-heavy scheme, but it still doesn’t look set up to give Justin Fields a fair chance to develop as a passer.”
That’s the type of team we want to target for DFS, even with a questionable defensive front like that of Tampa Bay ($3,200). With the Bucs slight favorites at home in a low-total game, they’re a solid mid-range choice against the turnover-prone Justin Fields ($7,600).
