In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Running Back Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are two running backs near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Christian McCaffrey
- Joshua Kelley
We’ll discuss why these two are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks.
Top Model NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Christian McCaffrey ($8,900 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel): San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) at Los Angeles Rams (45.5 total)
Christian McCaffrey had a stellar Week 1, and he owns maybe the best role for any running back in fantasy football. He handled 22 carries last week, running for 152 yards and a touchdown. He also saw five targets, catching three balls for 17 yards.
His underlying metrics were elite, playing on 85% of the snaps, running a route on 79% of the dropbacks, and seeing a 15% target share.
McCaffrey touched up the Rams when he played them last year, parlaying 26 touches into 149 yards and two touchdowns and throwing a passing touchdown.
Kyle Shanahan has seemed to have Sean McVay’s number in his time with San Francisco, and the Rams’ poor Week 1 performance defending the run gives reason for confidence in McCaffrey. They allowed 4.7 yards per carry, which was the seventh-highest mark in the league.
McCaffrey has a 3.53 higher projection than every other back while lapping the field in ceiling projection as well.
He’s the top back in our Tournament and Cash Game Models.
Joshua Kelley ($5,000 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans (45.5 total)
Joshua Kelley was able to put up a great performance last week despite Austin Ekeler also having a big game. Kelley had 16 carries for 91 yards and a touchdown.
Ekeler is listed as doubtful for this matchup with the Titans, and there are reports that he isn’t going to travel with the team to Tennessee.
Kelley proved in Week 1 that he has a role in the offense even with Ekeler around, and now it might just be the Josh Kelley show. It’s unclear how much of a role Isaiah Spiller could have, but he was a healthy scratch for Week 1. Kelley is likely going to have a bell-cow role this week.
We know the volume will be there, but it’s hard to get excited about the matchup. The Titans allowed 50 yards on 19 carries to New Orleans backs last week. They were second in the league in yards per carry allowed in 2022, and just one back eclipsed 66 rushing yards against them in a game.
Chargers backs combined for 82 yards on 22 carries against the Titans in 2022, with Kelley seeing 10 carries for 24 yards and a touchdown.
Kelley is a volume-based play whose ceiling may be limited due to efficiency. However, Los Angeles is likely to put up points, and Kelley is definitely the back in that offense this week.
He’s the top option in Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon’s Pro Models.
Other Notable NFL DFS Running Back Picks
AJ Dillon ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Green Bay Packers (+1.5) at Atlanta Falcons (40.5 total)
Green Bay leaned on the run in Jordan Love‘s first-ever start, and AJ Dillon led the backfield with 13 carries despite Aaron Jones playing most of the game. Dillon handled just under 50% of the team rush attempts, with most of Patrick Taylor‘s work coming in garbage time.
Jones is questionable for this week’s matchup as he left Green Bay’s Week 1 win late after injuring his hamstring on a touchdown catch.
Jones missed two games in 2021, and Dillon had 17 touches for 97 yards and 15 touches for 67 yards. Dillon had 15 touches in Week 1, totaling just 36 yards. If Jones were to miss, which I’m expecting, we can expect him to have a floor of 15 touches with an upside into the low 20s.
Atlanta got gashed on the ground in Week 1, as Carolina’s backs totaled 132 yards on 27 rushes, good for 4.9 yards per carry.
Dillon is a strong play in all formats if Jones ends up being ruled out.
David Montgomery ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel): Detroit Lions (-4.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (47.5 total)
David Montgomery‘s role was pretty elite in Week 1, playing on nearly 80% of the snaps and handling 70% of the backfield touches. He ran a route on 19 pass routes which is notable, but didn’t receive a single target.
We’ll likely see more Jahmyr Gibbs as the season goes on, but Detroit is comfortable pounding the ball, and Montgomery’s workload isn’t in question for this week.
He’ll surely maintain the early down and short yardage work, and he’s matched up with a Seattle defense that gave up the three touchdowns to Rams’ running backs last week. He’s a strong play in all formats but will likely come with ownership.
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My Favorite NFL DFS Runningback Leverage Pick(s)
Tony Pollard ($7,500 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel): Dallas Cowboys (-9) vs. New York Jets (38.5 total)
Attacking elite defenses isn’t my favorite thing to do, but Tony Pollard may go overlooked this week. He’s currently ranked seventh in projected ownership. Once Ekeler and Aaron Jones are officially ruled out, I’m expecting Dillon and Kelley’s ownerships to skyrocket. There’s a good chance Pollard gets lost in the shuffle by the time Sunday comes around.
The Cowboys dismantled the Giants on Sunday night, but the game script didn’t affect Pollard. He had 14 carries for 70 yards and two touchdowns while catching two of three targets for 12 yards. Dallas is a massive home favorite, and Pollard is an explosive back who will likely handle a bell-cow-ish role. This is a brutal matchup through the air, so Dallas may choose the path of least resistance, which would be feeding Pollard.
I think Pollard is a high-ceiling option at the running back position this week.
Josh Jacobs ($7,100 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Las Vegas Raiders (+8.5) at Buffalo Bills (47 total)
Josh Jacobs handled 19 of 20 running back carries last week but was inefficient with his touches. His role is elite, as he also ran a route on 48% of the dropbacks and saw a 12% target share. He’s currently in the same boat as Pollard in projected ownership, and he’ll likely get overlooked when it’s all said and done. Teammate Davante Adams is also projected to be one of the highest-owned receiving options of the weekend. Jacobs provides nice leverage off of him.
The spot is a little worrisome as such a big underdog, but a lead for Buffalo could lead to Jacobs catching check-downs, which is a catalyst for a ceiling performance. We know the volume is going to be there, and we saw Buffalo give up some big carries on Monday night.
Jacobs is a solid leverage option for this main slate.
