In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Quarterback Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are two quarterbacks near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Josh Allen
- Baker Mayfield
We’ll discuss why these two are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks.
Top Model NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Josh Allen ($7,900 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (-9.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (47 total)
Week 1 was a forgettable one for Josh Allen, as he had four turnovers, which proved to be too much to overcome as Buffalo fell 22-16 to the Aaron Rodgers-less Jets. Allen totaled just 13.04 DraftKings points, finding the end zone once through the air.
The good news is that Allen’s struggles against the Jets have been well-documented. Dating back to last year, they gave him fits rather consistently. We also saw a bevy of elite quarterbacks struggle in Week 1, so there’s no reason to overreact.
Allen has averaged 5.8 yards per attempt against the Jets since the start of 2022 and 7.7 yards per attempt against everyone else.
He gets a great matchup to bounce back with, as he’s a massive home favorite against the Raiders. Las Vegas held their own against Russell Wilson last week, allowing 177 yards and two touchdowns. However, Denver’s offense is incomparable to Buffalo, and the Bills will be looking to make a statement after Monday night’s fiasco.
Allen is the top quarterback in both our Cash and Tournament Models, as well as Chris Raybon’s Pro Model.
Baker Mayfield ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel): Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) vs. Chicago Bears (41 total)
Baker Mayfield started his tenure as Tampa Bay’s starter with a mistake-free performance on the road. He completed 61.8% of his passes for 173 yards and two touchdowns.
His performance was nothing to write home about, but with his salary, you don’t need a 30-point performance. Mayfield looks like he could be a cheap option this year that we deploy in favorable spots for cheap. That is exactly the situational spot that we’re in this week.
Chicago allowed the second most fantasy points per pass attempt in 2022, and they got shredded by Jordan Love last week. Love completed 15 of 27 passes for 245 yards and three touchdowns. Chicago also boasts one of the most futile pass rushes in the league, as they had the third-lowest pressure rate in the league last week.
Mayfield is a solid value play, and he leads the position in Points/Salary while being the top quarterback in Sean Koerner’s Pro Model.
Other Notable NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Patrick Mahomes ($8,300 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (51 total)
If you needed any more convincing that Patrick Mahomes is the top quarterback in the league, he had a pretty poor game for his standards and still put up 20.54 DraftKings points and was the QB7 on the week. He completed just 54% of his passes for 5.8 yards per attempt. If Travis Kelce were to miss again, it would certainly hurt Mahomes’ outlook. However, I’m expecting him to suit up.
Mahomes shredded the Jaguars in the regular season last year, putting up 31.1 fantasy points, slinging it for 331 yards and four touchdowns. Mahomes also utilized his legs in Week 1, running for 45 yards. When he’s healthy, he’s very willing to tuck it and run, which just elevates his already sky-high ceiling. This matchup is nothing to worry about, and with a healthy Kelce, we should see a stellar performance from Mahomes.
Joe Burrow ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens (46.5 total)
Week 1 was a forgettable week for many elite quarterbacks but for Joe Burrow especially. He completed 14 of 31 passes for 82 yards while rushing for -1 yards. That’s it. That’s the entirety of Burrow’s fantasy production. A 3.18-point DraftKings performance that surely sunk any lineup that he was in. Cleveland has seemed to have Burrow’s number, as three of his five lowest games in terms of completion percentage have come against the Browns. He’s now 1-5 against Cleveland in his career.
This matchup is also slightly worrisome, as he’s started three games against Mike Macdonald’s defenses. He’s thrown for 6.5, 6.2, and 5.1 yards per attempt. Burrow is more of a bullish, bet-on-talent play this week in DFS. The matchup is worrisome, but the talent of this Cincinnati offense is elite, and it’s unlikely for them to put up two stinkers in a row.
Anthony Richardson ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Indianapolis Colts (-1) at Houston Texans (39.5 total)
It was an impressive debut for Anthony Richardson, as he looked far more ready to handle the NFL level than some expected. He threw for 223 yards, one touchdown, and one interception while adding 40 yards and a touchdown on the ground. He got dinged up towards the very end of the game, but he isn’t listed on the injury report.
He had six designed carries, including two which came inside the five-yard line. His deep passing was a little off, going 3/10 for 50 yards and an interception on throws over 10 yards downfield. If he can open up a vertical passing game, it’ll create even more lanes for him to take advantage of with his legs. Houston allowed 7.7 yards per attempt to Lamar Jackson last week, so hopefully, Richardson can see similar success through the air.
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My Favorite NFL DFS Quarterback Leverage Pick(s)
Justin Fields ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel): Chicago Bears (+2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (41 total)
I wasn’t sure if I could get any grosser after my Week 1 Deshaun Watson/Russell Wilson stand, but here we are. Justin Fields had a lackluster Week 1, averaging 5.8 yards per attempt, throwing one touchdown, one interception, and losing one fumble while adding 59 yards rushing.
Chicago allowed a league-high pressure rate last week, but Green Bay boasts a solid pass rush. The offensive line issues were well-documented last season, though. Tampa Bay only pressured Kirk Cousins on 27.7% of dropbacks last week, which could bode well for Fields. The Bucs also blitzed at the highest rate in the league last week, and Fields was elite against the blitz last year, ranking seventh in passer rating.
Todd Bowles loves sending extra rushers, which is the perfect recipe for Fields’ success. I always preach not to overreact to Week 1, so I’m not pressing the panic button on Fields. Cousins had 22.46 DraftKings points against Tampa Bay last week, and that was with two red zone turnovers and another lost fumble. If Cousins got to 30 DraftKings points (which was very within his range of outcomes), then our outlook on Fields might be different here.
Fields currently ranks outside the top 10 in projected ownership at the quarterback position. Feel free to roast me on Twitter if he puts up a stinker, but Fields’ ceiling is insanely high.
Gimme the kid at low ownership.
