In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are three wide receivers near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Deebo Samuel
- Josh Reynolds
We’ll discuss why these three are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks.
Top Model NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel): Detroit Lions (-4.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (47.5 total)
Amon-Ra St. Brown saw great usage in Week 1, as he did all of 2022, catching six of eight targets for 71 yards and a touchdown. He rotated around a lot, nearly splitting his snaps between the slot and out wide. This is important going forward, as it lessens the severity of any difficult cornerback matchup.
He ran a route on 100% of the dropbacks while seeing a 28% target share. St. Brown dominates the middle of the field, and he’s facing off against a defense that just got shredded in the middle. Matthew Stafford completed 16 of 22 passes for 172 yards between the numbers last week. St. Brown is levels better than any receiver that Stafford was throwing to last week (no offense Puka).
Despite the high price tag, St. Brown is tied for second in Points/Salary at the position.
He’s a very strong play, ranking first in our Cash Game and Tournament Models.
Deebo Samuel ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel): San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) at Los Angeles Rams (45.5 total)
Deebo Samuel was overshadowed by teammate Brandon Aiyuk last weekend, but Samuel is still the alpha receiver here. Samuel ran a route on 100% of the dropbacks, compared to just 88% for Aiyuk.
Samuel had a 23% target share and 23% air yards share while seeing a target as Brock Purdy‘s first read on 15% of his targets. Aiyuk had a 31% target share and 53% air yards share while seeing a target as Purdy’s first read on 17% of his routes.
Aiyuk’s numbers are higher across the board, but the far higher target share compared to first-read targets is a sign that this usage is likely unsustainable.
Samuel has killed the Rams in his career. In his six games against them since 2020, he’s averaged 4.1 catches per game for 74.2 receiving yards while racking up four receiving touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns.
He’s the top option in Sean Koerner’s Pro Model.
Josh Reynolds ($3,700 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel): Detroit Lions (-4.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (47.5 total)
Amon-Ra St. Brown may be the most popular receiver in Detroit, but Josh Reynolds has a solid role carved out for him in this offense. He caught four of seven targets last week for 80 yards.
He ran a route on 81% of the dropbacks and saw a 21% target share. As a home favorite, the Lions may look to a more run-heavy approach. However, if they’re forced to throw the ball more than expected, Reynolds is simply too cheap for his role. He provides nice salary relief while giving you exposure to one of the top game environments of the weekend.
He’s tied for second at the position in Points/Salary while being the top option in Chris Raybon’s Pro Model.
Other Notable NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Davante Adams ($7,600 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Las Vegas Raiders (+8.5) at Buffalo Bills (47 total)
Davante Adams boasts one of the best roles in fantasy and is a solid piece of a great game environment this weekend. Adams had a subpar Week 1, catching six of nine targets for 66 yards. However, his underlying metrics were great, seeing a target as Jimmy Garoppolo‘s first read on 24% of his routes. Jakobi Meyers had a 29% mark, but he’s out this week with a concussion, which will likely funnel more looks to Adams.
Adams had 34.6% of team targets, 51.9% of the air yards, and seeing a 31% target rate per route run. The volume will be there, and despite likely seeing shadow coverage from Tre’Davious White, we’re not shying away.
Calvin Ridley ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel): Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (51.5 total)
It was a welcome return to football for Calvin Ridley, running a route on 97% of dropbacks, seeing a 35% target share and 49% share of the team air yards. He caught eight of 11 targets for 101 yards and a touchdown against Indianapolis. He now gets another plus matchup against Kansas City, who allowed the most points per game to WR1s in 2022.
Ridley is also playing in the weekend’s top game environment, adding to his appeal. Ridley is fine on his own and a great piece of Patrick Mahomes or Trevor Lawrence stacks.
Puka Nacua ($4,900 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel): Los Angeles Rams (+7.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (45.5 total)
In Puka, we trust. Puka Nacua had an immaculate Week 1 role out of virtually nowhere, running a route on 90% of the dropbacks while seeing a 39% target share and 35% air yards share. His first read target numbers were strong as well, which is promising that this Week 1 performance wasn’t a fluke.
He’s currently questionable with an oblique injury but is expected to go. This is a situation where I’m personally looking to act quickly. I think this role could be here to stay, and if that’s even remotely the case, his price is way too cheap this week.
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My Favorite NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick(s)
Gabe Davis ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (-8.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (47 total)
Gabe Davis remains one of the most frustrating players in Fantasy Football, but I’m ready to get hurt this week. He saw little Week 1 usage, catching two of four targets for 32 yards. However, his role is strong and he doesn’t have any competitors. He ran a route on 94% of team dropbacks last week.
This matchup makes me interested in Davis, coupled with the fact that he’s a very low-owned stacking option with one of the top quarterbacks of the weekend, Josh Allen. Las Vegas ran zone coverage on 85% of their snaps last week, and Davis has far better splits against zone as opposed to man.
He has an 18.2% target share against zone coverage compared to just 13.3% vs. man. His yards per route run is 1.81 vs. zone compared to a paltry 0.72 vs. man.
I’ll have a lot of Gabe Davis this weekend, and he’s currently projected to see single-digit ownership.
Nico Collins ($4,800 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel): Houston Texans (-1) vs. Indianapolis Colts (39.5)
C.J. Stroud is currently questionable with a shoulder injury, and if he were to miss, it would change my outlook for Nico Collins. Collins had a solid Week 1, catching six of 11 targets for 80 yards against Baltimore. His role was very promising, as he ran a route on 72% of the dropbacks with a 28% target rate per route run, 28% target share, and 64% air yards share. Noah Brown led the team in route participation in Week 1, and he’s now on IR. Collins likely won’t get up to 100% of the routes, but he’ll likely see a slight bump.
He also saw a target as Stroud’s first read on 23% of his routes, which is a strong sign going forward. Collins is an awesome option in tournaments this week and I think he provides a sneaky high ceiling at fairly low ownership.
