In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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Top NFL DFS Tight End Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are two tight ends near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Travis Kelce
- Chigoziem Okonkwo
We’ll discuss why these two are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks.
Top Model NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Travis Kelce ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (51.5 total)
Travis Kelce was missed greatly by Kansas City in their season opener, as their receivers had a case of the drops, and the Chiefs fell to the visiting Lions. Kelce is currently questionable for this matchup, but he’s looked pretty much 100% in practice, and he’s expected to play.
He had six catches for 81 yards and a touchdown in both their regular season and playoff matchup with the Jaguars last season.
With Kelce back on the main slate, the entire tight end position changes. He has the highest median projection by over seven points and ceiling projection by over 10 points. He’s also tied for the position lead in Points/Salary despite being the most expensive by $1,300.
He’s the top option in our Cash Game and Tournament Models.
Chigoziem Okonkwo ($3,300 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel): Tennessee Titans (+2.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (45.5 total)
Chigoziem Okonkwo had solid underlying metrics in Week 1, running a route on 75% of the dropbacks. He only saw two targets, but one of them would’ve been a walk-in 47-yard touchdown if Ryan Tannehill gave him a good ball.
Volume was always going to be a question, especially with DeAndre Hopkins now in town. However, Hopkins is expected to miss this weekend, which could open up more work for Okonkwo.
Durham Smythe, albeit in a more pass-heavy offense, saw seven targets against this defense last week, catching three balls for 44 yards.
Okonkwo may not rack up the targets, but he’s a talented player capable of breaking big plays. There are targets up for grabs if Hopkins were to miss, and Okonkwo could be in line to benefit.
He’s the top option in Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon’s Pro Models.
Other Notable NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Dalton Kincaid ($3,300 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (-8.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (47 total)
Dalton Kincaid is technically listed as a tight end but may be closer to a wide receiver. Buffalo spent a first-round pick on him in this past draft, and they threw him into the fire right away. He ran a route on 76% of Josh Allen’s dropbacks, with 59% of those routes coming from the slot and 33% out wide.
His ability to earn targets remains to be seen, as he caught four of four targets last week for 26 yards. He has a solidified role in a pass-heavy offense, and his role as more of a receiver hybrid should give him more upside than usual tight ends around this price, in my opinion.
He’s a solid option this weekend.
Luke Musgrave ($3,200 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel): Green Bay Packers (+1.5) at Atlanta Falcons (40.5 total)
Luke Musgrave will probably be one of the highest-owned tight ends of the weekend, but for good reason. He ran a route on 80% of the dropbacks in Week 1, earning a 17% target rate per route run and a 15% overall share of team targets. Christian Watson is likely to miss again, and Aaron Jones is trending towards missing as well. Green Bay losing their top two position players could lead to an even expanded role for Musgrave.
Troy Anderson, linebacker for the Falcons, was already a plus matchup, and he’s now out with an injury. Musgrave had eight DraftKings points last week and honestly should’ve had far more. Jordan Love missed him wide-open for a touchdown, and Musgrave stumbled on another routine catch that would’ve likely been a touchdown if he stayed on his feet.
Musgrave will be owned, but he’s a very strong option.
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My Favorite NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick(s)
Darren Waller ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel): New York Giants (-4) at Arizona Cardinals (39.5 total)
The tight end position is looking fairly clear for this week. There are a lot of cheap, viable options, while Travis Kelce is the prime spend-up. This will likely lead to the mid-tier options being overlooked. It feels gross, but hear me out. Darren Waller caught three of five targets for 36 yards last week in the Giants’ blowout loss. However, due to the blowout nature and his having been nursing a hamstring injury, he was pulled fairly early.
He only ran a route on 52% of the dropbacks, seeing a 22% target rate per route run and 31% air yards share. However, in the first half, Waller ran a route on 87% of the dropbacks, seeing a whopping 42% target share. Waller was hyped up big time in camp, and he was utilized quickly. The Giants need to bounce back here, and Waller is their top option in the passing game. He also doesn’t have an injury designation for this game, so he should be a full go. Look for the Giants to show off Waller.
With most people looking to either play Travis Kelce or pay down, I’ll look to take advantage of the mid-tier, as Darren Waller’s ceiling feels unappreciated in this smash spot against the Cardinals. Waller is currently projected for 1% ownership while having the second-highest ceiling projection on the slate.
Sign me up.
