Week 1 caps off with a highly-anticipated Monday night football matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Bills are listed as 2-point road favorites, while the total sits at 45.5 points.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Josh Allen will likely be the top overall option in every single showdown slate he finds himself in. He can absolutely sling it, and his role on the ground adds a whole other aspect to his game. He had eight or more rush attempts in 11 games last year and eclipsed 40 rushing yards (one more passing touchdown worth of fantasy points) in 11 games.
He threw 35 touchdowns and added seven more on the ground during the regular season. His passing numbers weren’t great against the Jets, with just a 55.74% completion percentage, 352 passing yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. He was able to not provide an absolute goose egg by utilizing his legs. He had 10 carries for 47 yards and a touchdown in the second matchup and nine carries for 86 yards and two touchdowns in the first matchup.
His dynamic role and dual-threat ability at the quarterback position make him the top option on the slate.
Stefon Diggs and Garrett Wilson are priced just $200 apart on DraftKings and $1,000 apart on FanDuel. Ownership projections currently have these two right next to each other, but I personally strongly prefer Diggs. Diggs accounted for 28% of the Bills’ targets last season, and yes, he did struggle against New York. He had stat lines of 3/37/0 on five targets and 5/93/0 on 10 targets.
The Jets allowed the fewest DraftKings points to opposing wide receivers a year ago, and Buffalo tried to combat this by moving Diggs around and having him play almost 50% of his snaps in the slot. It didn’t work, but the talent here is undeniable, and DIggs’ target share is rivaled by few in the league.
If Aaron Rodgers force-feeds Wilson as he did to Davante Adams in years past, then Wilson’s target share and fantasy role will be very strong. However, the matchup isn’t much easier on the outside for Wilson as it is for Diggs. Tre’Davious White is fully recovered from his torn ACL and is one of the top corners in the league.
New York also has some offensive line questions, and this Buffalo defense is no joke. They had some struggles last year, but they lost the second-most games on defense due to injury. A fully healthy Buffalo defense partnered with a potentially suspect New York offensive line is worrisome.
Back to Wilson vs. Diggs. The two are priced nearly identical, but everything with Wilson is a lot more speculative than it is with Diggs. Wilson’s season-long outlook is very strong, and I’m very high on him. If Rodgers looks like the quarterback from 2020 and 2021, if he force-feeds Wilson an Adams-like target share, then the price on Wilson with respect to Diggs is totally fair.
However, the Jets could deploy a run-heavy approach, the offensive line could struggle, and Rodgers could revert to his 2022 ways of just throwing to his friends Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard. For tonight, I side with Diggs over Wilson.
Rodgers had a sub-par 2022 campaign, averaging just 15 DraftKings points per game and reaching 20 DraftKings points just once. He had 16 DraftKings points against Buffalo last season, but that was with Christian Watson leaving the game due to injury.
Rodgers seems way more invested in this New York offense than he was with Green Bay, and he has some talented weapons in Wilson and Breece Hall. He’s a fine option on this showdown slate, but I’m taking more of a “wait and see” approach.
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NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Breece Hall is the highest-priced option in the midrange section, as he and Dalvin Cook will split work. Hall was a tremendous back in 2022, averaging nearly six yards per carry and 11.5 yards per reception. We’ll see how large his role is after coming off of a torn ACL. He’ll likely be eased in but could still flash some big plays.
My lean is that Cook handles slightly more work than Hall on Monday Night, and it’s likely that he takes the goal line work as well. There’s nothing concrete to base this off of, but Hall is coming off of an injury, and Cook has proven he can handle a large workload in the past. Both are viable options in DFS and if multi-entering, I’d likely have shares of both. I lean toward Cook in this spot.
Speaking of Dalvin, his brother James Cook will be lining up for the other team and seems to be the lead back in Buffalo’s backfield. The ceiling on his role is a tiny bit dinged, with Damien Harris likely taking goalline work as he did in the preseason. However, Harris missed a chunk of the preseason with a knee injury.
Cook was very efficient with touches last season, averaging 6.2 yards per touch. He also saw a 25.4% target rate per route run, and with Devin Singletary now out of the picture, Cook is the lead man.
Buffalo has never been a very run-heavy team which also gives reason for pause. There were just 11 games last season where a Buffalo back had 15 or more touches. Allen is also a candidate to take goalline carries, so Cook’s touchdown equity isn’t that high.
Damien Harris’ price tag is a little too high, especially with Buffalo handing the ball off to running backs just seven times inside the five-yard line last season.
Personally, for this slate, I rank the four running back options as Dalvin, James, Hall, and then a large gap to Harris.
Gabriel Davis operated mostly as a downfield threat last season, averaging 17.4 yards per catch. He caught just over 50% of his targets on the year and disappointed relative to some preseason expectations. However, he did play through an ankle injury early in the season, and there aren’t any legitimate threats to take time away from him.
He had more success against zone coverage as opposed to man, which doesn’t bode well for tonight as the Jets deploy a man-heavy scheme. He saw minimal success against New York last year, with 5/64/0 in two games. He’s a solid tournament option, as he may go overlooked in the mid-tier section.
Allen Lazard made the trip from Green Bay to New York like Rodgers and is set to make his debut tonight. He dealt with a shoulder injury in the preseason but wasn’t listed on the injury report. There isn’t too much to diagnose here. Lazard is probably too expensive for his role, but he is the second passing game option for New York. Rodgers has a lot of trust in him, which is certainly noteworthy.
Tyler Conklin was quietly second on the Jets in targets last season. The upgrade at quarterback certainly is a plus, but this matchup has been nightmarish in years past. Buffalo did not allow a touchdown in the regular season to tight ends and allowed the second-fewest yards per target. Buffalo did lose Tremaine Edmunds, but Matt Milano will still man the middle of the field. Conklin is a fine target tonight.
Dalton Kincaid was drafted in the first round by Buffalo, and he should see a large role early in often. Buffalo deployed a lot of 12 personnel (two tight ends) in the preseason, which means Kincaid’s arrival isn’t a huge knock on Dawson Knox‘s fantasy outlook. Kincaid will see some in-line snaps while likely lining up in the slot as well.
This Jets defense was stellar against wide receivers last year, which made opposing tight ends a prime beneficiary. New York allowed a bottom-ten mark in yards per target allowed to tight ends last year. Personally, Kincaid and Knox are both on my radar tonight and I’m not opposed to rostering them in the same lineup.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them. Given the expected low-scoring nature, these options may be more appealing than usual.
- Randall Cobb ($3,400 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): The ghost of Randall Cobb, once my favorite player in the entire league, will make his debut for New York tonight. Cobb has a shot to be the starting slot receiver due to his past rapport with Rodgers. He may be worth a flier in tournaments, but his ceiling likely isn’t very high, and Mecole Hardman is a prime candidate to take some slot snaps from him.
- Mecole Hardman Jr. ($3,000 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Hardman could mix into the slot on Monday night, as we really don’t know how the Jets’ receiving room outside of Wilson and Lazard will shake out. If looking to Hardman (or Cobb), you should only play one or the other, as they cannibalize each other’s upside.
- Khalil Shakir ($2,400 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Shakir seems to be behind Deonte Harty, but he has experience in this offense and should see something around a quarter of the snaps. He has big play upside and could be worth a flier.
- C.J. Uzomah ($800 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): C.J. Uzomah is certainly behind Tyler Conklin, but he’ll play in two tight end sets and could see some work around the goal line. There are worse ways to spend your money than Uzomah.
- Deonte Harty ($200 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel): Saving the best for last, Deonte Harty looks to be one of the top Pts/Sal plays on the slate and will likely see some strong ownership. He won Buffalo’s starting job in the slot and ran 10 routes in the preseason with Allen under center. He signed a two-year deal worth almost $10 million, so Buffalo clearly is optimistic about him. He’s a borderline lock in cash games and a strong option in tournaments.
