Editor’s Note: Noah Syndergaard has been scratched for tonight’s contest.
It’s a safe assumption that either Jose Fernandez or Noah Syndergaard will finish atop their position tonight. After all, both have double-digit Pro Trends and a Consistency of at least 66 percent on DraftKings this season. The offenses they oppose are also implied to score only 2.7 and 2.9 runs, the two lowest totals this evening.
It’s possible to squeeze both in at DraftKings, but if you’re having trouble doing so, this slate also offers comparable options that could, at the least, fill in as a secondary option. In fact, a select few could even be seen as an alternate altogether at FanDuel.
Johnny Cueto, SF
Cueto costs only $200 less than Syndergaard at DraftKings, so he’s really more of a substitute than cheap pivot. Either way, note Cueto’s 169-foot batted-ball distance allowed in the last 15 days is the lowest among pitchers in that span. The Pirates’ projected lineup is also averaging .269 strikeouts per at-bat (SO/AB), which is .037 more than the Royals’. Given Cueto’s 95 Park Factor Rating — the highest among pitchers tonight — and the fact that he’s allowed a hard-hit rate 13 percentage points lower than his yearly average recently, it’s certainly plausible that he at least matches the production of tonight’s high-scorer.
Corey Kluber, CLE
Although his advanced metrics aren’t quite as impressive as Cueto’s, Kluber’s 192-foot batted-ball distance allowed is still seven feet shorter than Syndergaard’s. That includes Kluber’s fluky last outing in which Kansas City scored eight runs despite recording only one home run. But as it pertains to tonight, the Rays’ projected lineup is averaging .274 SO/AB. Kluber also has a 95 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel even though he’s averaged only 6.8 fewer FanDuel points than Syndergaard over the last month.
Justin Verlander, DET
Verlander has averaged only 0.3 fewer DraftKings points than Syndergaard over the last month. He’s also recorded an 80 percent Consistency in that span. At FanDuel, however, his 98 percent Bargain Rating has allowed him to record both a 100 percent Consistency and 20 percent Upside in his last five games. He’s allowed a batted-ball distance 12 feet farther than his yearly average in the past 15 days, but it’s clear as to why Seattle’s implied total has already plummeted 0.4 runs.
Marco Estrada, TOR
Much like Verlander, Estrada has a 98 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel. But Estrada’s production has quietly been as solid as any other ace’s lately, as shown by his average of 40.6 FanDuel points over the past month. His hard-hit rate has increased 16 percentage points above his yearly average recently, but the Diamondbacks’ .267 SO/AB still leaves enough Upside for Estrada to match any of the aforementioned names. Even Vegas tends to think so, as shown by the 78 percent of moneyline bets received thus far.
A Variety of Stacks
One thing that also stands out in this slate is the amount of viable stacks. In other words, you can easily get away with fading any team since there are other numerous offenses implied with high totals. See the Orioles, for example: They’re tied with the highest implied total this evening, but even that projection is only 0.3 more runs than the Yankees’ and 0.5 more than the Blue Jays’.
Here are a few more offenses that will likely go overlooked.
HOU vs. Hector Santiago
Santiago recorded 23.1 DraftKings points in his last start, but note his -5.03 Plus/Minus at DraftKings over his last 10. Most Astros should also have low ownership totals since they’re “only” implied to score 5.1 runs. Carlos Correa, expected to hit cleanup, has averaged a bottom-eight batted-ball distance among shortstops over the last 15 days, but those ahead of him — George Springer, Marwin Gonzalez, Jose Altuve — are all slugging at least .469 versus left-handed pitching.
NYM vs. Ian Kennedy
Note Kennedy’s 40 percent Dud rate in the past month, as he’s averaged only 9.7 DraftKings points in that span. Even better for the Mets’ offense is that he’s allowed 1.66 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) over the last year. Although Michael Conforto, who has a .265 ISO Differential against right-handed pitching, is likely to continue hitting lower in the lineup, Curtis Granderson, Yoenis Cespedes, and Neil Walker have all averaged a batted-ball distance greater than 210 feet in the last 15 days.
CLE vs. Blake Snell
Cleveland’s projected lineup has a .315 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), tied for top-six tonight. It’s also a plus that only Jason Kipnis has a negative ISO Differential among the Indians’ top-four hitters. His recent 229-foot batted-ball distance and 91 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings are enough to get past his unfortunate splits against left-handed pitching.
MIN vs. Aaron Nola
Nola’s allowed a batted-ball distance 18 feet farther than his yearly average in the last 15 days. He’s also failed to meet salary-based expectations in three of his last four starts, recording a -3.42 Plus/Minus at DraftKings over that span. Eduardo Nunez, expected to continue leading off for the Twins, may have a -.179 ISO Differential tonight, but Joe Mauer and Robbie Grossman both have positive splits versus right-handed pitching.
Good luck!
