In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Tight End Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are three tight ends near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Mark Andrews
- Tyler Higbee
- Luke Musgrave
We’ll discuss why these three are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks.
Top Model NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Mark Andrews ($6,200 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel): Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) vs. Houston Texans (43.5 total)
Mark Andrews is listed as questionable with a quad injury for Sunday’s matchup with Houston. We’ll probably receive news late Saturday or early Sunday, but if he were to miss, Isaiah Likely would be in line for a big workload.
Andrews was fully healthy for the first six weeks of last season, where he put up elite numbers. He averaged 20.13 DraftKings points per game, seeing double-digit targets in four of six games.
He then injured his shoulder and seemed to be a different player for the rest of the season, only cracking 20 DraftKings points one more time. If Andrews is reported to be limited, he’ll likely see his snaps in big third downs and red zone situations.
Houston was a middling defense against tight ends in 2022, allowing 7.5 yards per target. Andrews is a player where matchup doesn’t really matter. He’s an elite tight end, and the offense runs heavily through him.
Andrews is the top option in our Tournament Model.
Tyler Higbee ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel): Los Angeles Rams (+4.5) at Seattle Seahawks (46 total)
Tyler Higbee’s price looked a little expensive when salaries first came out, but maybe DraftKings knew that Cooper Kupp would miss this contest.
Higbee racked up the receptions last season, setting career highs in targets and receptions. Most of his work was underneath, averaging just 8.6 yards per catch, so he was heavily reliant on volume to reach fantasy value.
The return of Matthew Stafford should be huge for Higbee, and Stafford even said he’s having a tough time connecting with all of the new receivers. Do you know who he has an existing connection with? Mr. Higbee. Higbee saw at least eight targets in five of Stafford’s nine games last season.
The matchup is also exploitable, as Seattle gave up the second-most yards per target to the position. Higbee is one of the safest options on the board, and he did flash a little bit of ceiling last season with a 30-point performance late in the year.
Higbee is the top tight end in our Cash Game Model.
Luke Musgrave ($2,900 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): Green Bay Packers (+1.5) at Chicago Bears (41.5 total)
If looking to pay down at the tight end position, then rookie Luke Musgrave is a strong option. He had his senior season cut short due to injury, but he averaged 3.52 yards per route run in his limited sample size.
His preseason usage also shows that Green Bay expects him to be a big part of their offense. He was second on the team in routes run in the preseason, while Jordan Love was in the game. He also saw a target on almost 26% of his routes from Love. If this type of usage trickles into the regular season, we’re going to be paying a lot more for Musgrave in the coming weeks.
Investing in rookie tight ends is usually a fruitless strategy, but Musgrave makes a strong case to buck the trend.
He’s the top tight end in Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon’s Pro Models.
Other Notable NFL DFS Tight End Picks
David Njoku ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel): Cleveland Browns (+2) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (47.5 total)
David Njoku and Deshaun Watson didn’t seem to have as strong of a connection as Njoku and Jacoby Brissett. However, Watson still looked his way, especially in the red zone, where Njoku led the Browns with 10 red zone targets from Watson.
Njoku had one of his best games of the season with Watson under center against the Bengals, catching seven of nine targets for 59 yards and a touchdown in Week 14. Cincinnati struggled against tight ends all season long, allowing the sixth-most receptions per game.
Njoku ranks fourth in Points/Salary on the week and is a strong option.
Hayden Hurst ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel): Carolina Panthers (+3.5) at Atlanta Falcons (39.5 total)
Hayden Hurst has been reliant on volume to reach fantasy value, averaging just 8.0 yards per catch last season. The good news is that Hurst may be in for a good amount of volume with D.J. Chark out and Adam Thielen questionable with an ankle injury.
Hurst didn’t have a super strong connection with Bryce Young in the preseason. He was in on 26 of Young’s 31 dropbacks but only saw one target. Atlanta was in the bottom 10 in catches per game allowed to tight ends, which bodes well for Hurst. He’s another solid salary relief option.
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My Favorite NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick(s)
Gerald Everett ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (-3) vs. Miami Dolphins (51 total)
This Chargers and Dolphins game looks like it could be an up-and-down shootout, and Gerald Everett provides a lower-owned option. He currently ranks outside the top 15 in projected ownership at the tight end position. Everett had career-highs in targets and receptions last year from Herbert. The injuries to Keenan Allen and Mike Williams certainly boosted his usage.
New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore used tight ends at a high rate in Dallas, as we saw the ascension that Dalton Schultz has taken in recent years. People looking to gain exposure to the Chargers’ offense will flock to Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and to a lesser extent, Mike Williams.
I think Everett provides nice salary relief in the best game environment while being a low-owned piece.
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