The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Nick Fortes ($2,700): Catcher, Miami Marlins
There may only be a few games on tonight’s main slate, but that doesn’t diminish the value some of these players bring. Included in that is Nick Fortes. The Miami Marlins catcher has been an inconsistent producer this season. Still, there are a lot of positives in his analytics profile, making him a steal on tonight’s docket.
A five-game hitless streak in the middle of the month has impacted his monthly stats, but Fortes amplified production over the past 30 days. Since August 1, Fortes is slugging a respectably .347, with four of his seven hits going for extra bases. The increase in power correlates with improved run production, as the former fourth-round pick has accounted for seven runs in 38 at-bats.
Fortes has an ideal launch angle and makes a reasonable amount of hard-hit and barrel contact; however, he’s still falling below his expected slugging percentage over the course of the campaign. A similar run like what we’ve seen from him recently is expected over the final month of the season, as actual metrics catch up with expected. Now’s the time to roster Fortes as a bargain pick against the Washington Nationals.
Alex Call ($2,500): Outfielder, Washington Nationals
The Nats have a value pick of their own that can make waves on Thursday’s slate. Immediately preceding his current five-game hitless streak, Alex Call had recorded six hits over six outings, including two multi-hit efforts, bookending that with his recent slide. It’s time for the pendulum to start swinging the other way, and according to our projections, that should start tonight.
Like most of our value picks, Call’s metrics imply his actual stats should be in a much better spot. His actual slugging percentage is nearly 40 points below expected, despite having one of the best eyes at the plate. The Nats outfielder ranks in the 88th percentile or higher in whiff and chase rates, albeit with more modest power metrics.
Perhaps the biggest factor impacting Call’s probability of success tonight is that he gets to tee off southpaw Braxton Garrett. Call’s slugging percentage jumps to .388 against lefties, representing three of his seven homers and seven of his 13 doubles.
We expect that side of Call to shine tonight.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Spencer Strider ($12,500 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
As we’ve seen all season, Spencer Strider is a virtual lock to be a top-performing pitcher any time he’s toeing the rubber. That’s even more pronounced on a small evening slate featuring only three contests.
Strider has seemingly snapped out of his mid-summer slump, re-kindling his Cy Young chances with a solid August. He can end the month on a high note, helping his Atlanta Braves assert themselves as the class of the National League against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Strider’s analytics put him in another stratosphere. He ranks in the 99th percentile in strikeout and whiff percentages, falling modestly to the 97th percentile in chase rate. Those numbers contribute to one of the best expected ERAs in the game, with Strider tallying an impressive 2.97 mark.
We’ve seen the best that Strider has to offer lately. The 24-year-old has allowed one (just one!) earned run over his last 21.0 innings pitched, striking out 25 and winning all three starts. But with his actual ERA floating above expected, that run should continue to end the season.
As his salary implies, Strider is the pre-eminent pitcher available on the main slate.
Hitter
Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6,700 DraftKings, $4,900FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Of course, he’s not the only Brave projected to thrive on Thursday night. Teammate and NL MVP frontrunner Ronald Acuna Jr. is our median and ceiling projections leader. Adding the duo could be an optimal stacking strategy for those trying to take a run at bigger tournaments and pools.
As always, Acuna Jr. is a threat to pop off any time he’s in the lineup. The two-time Silver Slugger sits in the 100th percentile in wOBA and expected batting average, with power metrics to boot. His 54.4% hard-hit rate and .639 expected slugging percentage put him in the 97th and 99th percentile, respectively.
One of Acuna’s distinguishing characteristics is his speed on the base paths. Earlier this week, the Braves outfielder nabbed his 61st stolen base of the season, his second game with two stolen bases since August 22. That’s had an impact on his fantasy output, with Acuna Jr. averaging 15.7 points on FanDuel and 12.5 points on DraftKings over his previous 11 outings.
The honeymoon between the Dodgers and Lance Lynn appears to be coming to an end. Lynn was torched for four runs on ten hits his last time out. Assuredly, this all part of the expected regression after an unsustainable, albeit productive, stretch with his new team. Acuna Jr. will help facilitate that correction with another elite performance tonight.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Braxton Garrett ($8,200 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel) vs. Washington Nationals
On a slate this small, it’s almost impossible to not have converting interests. Although we’ve highlighted Nats outfielder as a value play, it’s still worth rostering Braxton Garrett on two-pitcher rosters.
Garrett has been performing on the top end of the spectrum this month. Over his last six starts, Garrett has decreased his ERA to 2.91, bringing his walks and hits per inning pitched down to 1.12 with it. Still, he has only two wins to show for his efforts, suffering consecutive tough-luck losses coming into tonight’s NL East battle.
Playing on the road benefits Garrett tonight. The 26-year-old has been far superior on the road than at home, compiling a 4-2 record with a sparkling 2.86 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 9.0 K/9 rate. Those numbers should look even better after he gets through a Nationals lineup that ranks fifth-last in OPS and sixth-last in runs over the past week.
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Hitters
Jazz Chisholm Jr. ($5,000 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) vs. Washington Nationals
Despite a recent string of successes at the plate, Jazz Chisholm Jr. has been less involved in run production over the last few weeks. The Marlins outfielder enters tonight’s contest with seven hits over his previous seven games, with just one run scored and three driven in. That’s an uncommon disconnect for a batter in the heart of the lineup. We’re expecting that anomaly to start correcting itself, starting tonight against the Nats.
Chisholm Jr. remains a top run producer for the Fish. The Show cover athlete ranks fifth on the team in runs and RBI, with the third-most homers, despite appearing in only 70 games. Combined with his improved proficiency at the plate, we would anticipate an increase in runs and RBI over his recent surge, which hasn’t been the case.
Moreover, Chisholm Jr.’s speed sets him apart from other players on the slate. The speedster has stolen 17 bases this season, easily setting the high mark on the Marlins. Washington lets opponents run freely, giving up the fourth-most stolen bags this year. Combined with his anticipated improved run production at the plate. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Chisholm Jr. end the night as one of the top fantasy players.
Fernando Tatis Jr. ($5,800 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) vs. San Francisco Giants
After a tepid stretch through the middle of the month, Fernando Tatis Jr. is showing signs of revival over his previous few contests. The shortstop turned outfielder enters this NL West showdown against the San Francisco Giants on a modest three-game hitting streak, poised to continue his recent uptick in production.
Tatis Jr. is operating outside of normal ranges this month. The two-time Silver Slugger’s slugging percentage has dipped to .340 this month, well below his expected value of .530 and further off his career average of .552. Still, Tatis Jr. has maintained an elite hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, both of which sit in the 93rd percentile.
We’re anticipating growth from Tatis Jr. He’s showing signs of breaking out of his slump, recording hits in six of his last seven games. Considering his top-end power metrics, it’s just a matter of time before those hits start finding gaps and his slugging percentage creeps back up toward career norms.
