FantasyLabs is a data company. With our free Trends tool and Player Models, you can leverage our advanced statistics and premium exclusive metrics to identify players to use in your daily fantasy sports lineups.
Each weekday, our Data Dive articles use 10 of these metrics to highlight notable players in the day’s Main slate.
Batters
Although this is not a ‘Coors Field slate,’ we do have some extremely high totals on the board: Five of the 30 teams have implied Vegas totals of more than five runs. That may not seem like a lot, but having five teams — instead of a more usual number, such as two — means that ownership will likely be more spread out in tournaments. Alright, enough talk. Let’s data dive.
Isolated Power (ISO): .362, Chris Davis
Crush has five hits in his last eight bats. That’s a small sample, but his performance in that sample highlights how much Upside he has versus righties. The Orioles are implied for 5.8 runs currently, tied with the Rangers for the highest total of the slate. Per our Trends tool, Davis has historically provided value versus righties at Oriole Park — no surprise.
Park Factor: 81, Lefties at Yankee Stadium
My favorite part of our Park Factor Rating metric is that it adjusts for handedness of batters. Accordingly, our Park Factor Rating metric says that tonight lefties at Yankee Stadium have the best matchup. We have some good ones too: Carlos Gonzalez, Jacoby Ellsbury, Charlie Blackmon, Brett Gardner, and Brian McCann all qualify tonight.
Batted-Ball Distance (Ft): 258, Kris Bryant
Out of all batters to appear in at least 10 games within the last 15 days, Bryant is a top-five hitter according to this metric. He has two home runs in his last three games, highlighting his outstanding recent batted-ball statistics, as he is currently hitting the ball 30 feet farther than his yearly average. Similar batters with those recent advanced metrics have historically outperformed expectations. Bryant and the Cubs are currently implied for 4.6 runs tonight.
Exit Velocity (MPH): 98, Trevor Story
Of the players to appear in more than eight games in the last 15 days, Story has the highest exit velocity, an incredible 98 miles per hour. More importantly, his advanced stats all come without the tint of Coors Field, where he hasn’t played since June 2nd. Story was just $4,700 on DraftKings last night and hit a home run. Tonight, he takes his lowered $4,100 salary and elite advanced stats into Yankee Stadium, where he will face Ivan Nova and his high 1.387 HR/9 allowed rate.
Salary Change ($): -$1,700 (DK), Andrew McCutchen
McCutchen has certainly struggled this year, although perhaps it is a bit overshadowed by Giancarlo Stanton’s struggles at the plate as well. Over the last month, McCutchen has experiences a -$1,700 Salary Change — one of the largest drops among everyday players — and his salary tonight sits at $2,900, the third-lowest mark in his DFS history. In all fairness, his salary might be deserved, since tonight he has a Park Factor of 2 and faces Johnny Cueto. No signs point to McCutchen breaking out of his slump, but isn’t that exactly when you want to roster talented players in tournaments?
Upside, Salary Change, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings page.
Pitchers
If you got burned by the late scratch of Stephen Strasburg last night, I’m sorry. It sucks. However, you have quite a few nice options tonight in the 15-game Main Slate. Let’s dive into them.
Editor’s Note: Noah Syndergaard has been scratched for tonight’s contest.
Moneyline (ML): -248, Jose Fernandez
Jose Fernandez is the cream of a pretty good crop tonight. Only Thor — whom we’ll get to later — can even somewhat rival him in the Vegas metrics. Fernandez has the best moneyline of the night and the opponent Braves have a slate-low implied total of only 2.7 runs. More importantly, Fernandez has a 94 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where you get that nice 12-point bonus for a win.
HR/9 Allowed: 1.669, Hector Santiago
This is a blurb about a pitcher . . . but it’s really a blurb for the batters facing him. Santiago has a very high 1.669 HR/9 allowed rate over the last 12 months, and he’s set to face the Houston Astros, who boast a very nice 75 Team Value Rating on FanDuel and are currently implied to score 4.8 runs. Home runs win tournaments in DFS and Santiago gives them up in bunches.
Park Factor: 95, Johnny Cueto
Yesterday, Kelly McCann wrote a great breakdown of Cueto and his amazing recent advanced stats. On top of everything that Kelly mentions, tonight Cueto is pitching at home, where has has a slate-high 95 Park Factor Rating. He carries some risk, as the opponent Pirates are currently implied to score 3.7 runs, but Cueto’s other factors suggest that he is an intriguing tournament option.
K Prediction (SO): 8.5, Corey Kluber
In a slate with Fernandez and Thor, it is actually Kluber who has the highest K Prediction of the night. Kluber already has a very high K/9 rate — 9.615 in the last year. Combine that with the fact that he’s facing a Rays squad that whiffs at a high rate — .2748 per at-bat, to be exact — and Kluber has a lot of Upside tonight. Additionally, with Jose and Thor in the slate, he will likely be underowned.
Bargain Rating (%): 98 (FD), Justin Verlander
Speaking of pitchers in great recent form: Verlander has recently had his arm surgically replaced by the fire emoji.
Verlander came back down to Earth a bit last game, giving up four earned runs. Verlander has a low K Prediction tonight and isn’t a heavy favorite, but his 98 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel shouldn’t be overlooked, given his recent play.
