The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Rob Refsnyder ($2,500): Outfielder, Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox are locked in a crucial showdown with the Houston Astros. Both teams are vying for a playoff spot, and the Astros have a commanding advantage by winning the first two games of the series. The Bo Sox can salvage the finale, but they’ll need more from their complementary players to do so.
Rob Refnsyder has been in and out of the lineup this season, filling in more regularly this week. Refsnyder had a two-hit performance over the weekend against the Los Angeles Dodgers and came off the bench in Monday’s series opener. He’s projected to be back in the lineup in Wednesday’s matinee and is the top value play according to our aggregate modeling.
The Red Sox outfielder has a few bright spots in his analytics profile. He makes sweet spot contact 44.8% of the time and is operating below his expected slugging percentage. As such, he’s poised for a string of above-average fantasy performances as expected metrics balance with actual. Grab him in the finale against the Astros.
Will Brennan ($2,300): Outfielder, Cleveland Guardians
He doesn’t hit for a lot of extra bases, but Will Brennan is one of the most disciplined hitters in the game. The left-handed batting outfielder has the added advantage of swinging against a righty in Wednesday’s AL Central showdown against the Minnesota Twins.
Brennan ranks in the 90th percentile in expected batting average, ratcheting up his ranking to the 93rd percentile in strikeout rate. We’ve seen the best the Cleveland Guardians outfielder has to offer over his recent sample. with Brennen totaling ten hits over his past ten outings. Included in that stretch are three multi-hit games, four runs scored, and two RBI. Factor in four stolen bases, and it’s a wonder Brennan’s salary is still hanging in the low $2,000s.
Predictably, Brennan’s best metrics come against righties. Versus conventional arms, the former eighth-round pick has a .272 average and .385 slugging percentage. Now is the perfect time to roster Brennan, as we catch him at a discounted rate in the middle of a hot streak.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Brandon Woodruff ($10,200 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Cubs
Brandon Woodruff returned from a shoulder injury at the start of August without missing a beat. The two-time All-Star is poised for another strong showing in Wednesday’s rubber match against their divisional rivals, the Chicago Cubs.
The Milwaukee Brewers ace is gassing opponents. Through four August starts, Woodruff is allowing a minuscule 0.88 walks and hits per inning pitched while striking out 29 over 22.2. The resulting 11.5 K/9 rate puts him on track for his best season to date, albeit in a limited capacity.
Analytically, Woodruff stacks up with the best of them. He’s got a Cy Young-worthy 2.84 expected ERA, the best of his career, ranking in the upper echelon of MLB pitchers in expected slugging percentage, barrel rate, and strikeout percentage.
Woodruff gets to flex those muscles against an overmatched Cubs squad. Over the last week. Chicago ranks in the bottom half of the majors in batting average, on-base, and slugging percentages. Those woes will only be compounded by another top-fantasy performance from Woodruff.
Hitter
Kyle Tucker ($5,800 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel) vs. Boston Red Sox
Since the All-Star break, Kyle Tucker has almost single-handedly kept the Houston Astros in the American League playoff race. The former fifth-overall selection in the draft has seen a surge in production, without any meaningful increases to his salary. Now is the time to benefit from that imbalance, as he projects as the standout fantasy player available on the early slate.
Tucker’s post-All-Star break splits are in the MVP stratosphere. The Astros outfielder is slugging a monstrous .623 since the mid-summer classic, inflating his OPS to a robust 1.019. As expected, this has yielded improved run production, as Tucker has nearly matched his first half totals in runs and RBI in half the at-bats.
We’ve discussed his growth potential in the past, and that remains true as we head into the stretch drive of the season. Tucker is still operating below his expected slugging percentage on the season, with one of the best analytics profiles in the game.
Those advantages are also reflected in his PlateIQ projections. Tucker possesses an elite .364 wOBA and .211 ISO, validating his inclusion as the top hitter available. The leads our median and ceiling projections on the main slate, making him the best player to roster in any tournament or format.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Logan Webb ($9,500 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Logan Webb hasn’t recaptured the magic from last year’s career-best campaign. Regression was probably inevitable, but the San Francisco Giants righty continues to deliver top-end performances. We’re expecting him to end August on a high note in Wednesday’s series finale against the Cincinnati Reds.
A disconnect is forming between Webb’s outcomes and underlying metrics, implying he’s a progression candidate to end the season. Webb has allowed nine earned runs over his past two starts without any meaningful changes to his WHIP or expected slugging percentage. The California native’s WHIP has come down to 1.07 this month, below his season-long average of 1.10. Additionally, he continues to toe the line with a mean expected slugging percentage of .401.
Lastly, Webb benefits from pitching at Oracle Park. Obviously, he benefits from the pitcher-friendly confines, putting together a 2.48 ERA with 0.98 walks and hits per inning pitched. Despite the brilliance, Webb is a meager 5-5 at home. That luck should change against the Reds as the Giants righty reaches his fantasy ceiling.
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Hitters
George Springer ($4,700 DraftKings, $3,100 FanDuel) vs. Washington Nationals
The Toronto Blue Jays playoff hopes are fading fast. Including last night’s defeat to the Washington Nationals, the Jays have dropped five of their last seven, falling 3.5 games back of the final wild card spot. If there’s a player they can turn to with the playoff pedigree to help them right the ship, it’s George Springer.
Springer is starting to play up to his full potential lately. The two-time Silver Slugger has an improved .875 OPS this month, with 10 of his 27 hits going for extra bags. That onslaught has brought improved run production with it, as Springer has accounted for 25 runs in August, scoring 15 and driving in 10. Still, we have yet to see how high Springer can fly, as he remains below his expected totals and further off career norms.
A matchup against Patrick Corbin could be the remedy the Jays need to break out of their funk. Corbin continues to rate as one of the worst analytics arms in the bigs, facilitating progression from Springer and the rest of the Jays’ offense.
Trea Turner ($5,500 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Angels
The Los Angeles Angels’ past few weeks are analogous to the club’s missteps over the last few seasons. LA completely bungled their hand, choosing to hang onto their key players rather than trade them for future pieces at the deadline. Now, the Halos are poised to lose most of their big league roster, as whatever movable pieces they have will likely be put on the waiver wire. Trea Turner and the Philadelphia Phillies are the immediate beneficiaries.
Turner deserves a few good bounces after a tough first year in Philly. The former batting title winner has fallen off the pace in most offensive categories, dropping below average in several analytics categories. Nevertheless, he’s flashed his usual top-end stuff more recently, delivering a 1.001 OPS over the past four weeks, including eight doubles, one triple, and eight homers.
There’s nothing the Angels can do to slow Turner down now. The Philadelphia Phillies shortstop has re-kindled the elite flame that kept his engine going for so many years. Get out of the way of this train as the Phillies railroad the Angels yet again.
