The wait is over, and the 2023-24 NFL DFS season has finally arrived.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 1. Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Trevor Lawrence ($6,500) + Calvin Ridley ($6,500)
Lawrence to Ridley is an affordable stack that brings massive upside. Coming off an impressive sophomore season, Lawrence should flourish this year and be one of the top fantasy quarterbacks. Last season, the 23-year-old finished sixth in passing touchdowns (30) and seventh in passing yards (4,618). Lawrence also flashed upside as a rusher, averaging 3.5 carries per game and ranking sixth in red zone rushes (19). Overall, the former No.1 pick finished fifth in DraftKings PPG among quarterbacks (19.2).
Visiting the Colts, the Jaguars sport the third-largest implied team total on the slate this Sunday (25.75 points) and this contest presents the third-highest total on the board (46.5 points) via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page. Notably, this is the highest implied team total Lawrence has ever played behind and when competing in a total of at least 45 points last season, the quarterback supplied 21.5 DraftKings PPG (seven games) via the Trends tool.
As for Ridley, the wideout should return to fantasy stardom in Jacksonville after essentially missing the last two seasons. In his last full season back in 2020, Ridley finished fifth in DraftKings PPG (20.4) and third in DraftKings points per snap (0.37). Plus, In his snaps with Lawrence during the preseason, Ridley saw outstanding usage, being targeted on 29% of his routes, and on the DraftKings Sportsbook, the ex-Falcon boasts the best odds of any player in this contest to score a touchdown (+120).
While Ridley may end up being a decently popular option, Lawrence shouldn’t be a common name in GPPs – he is slated for 6% ownership on DraftKings via THE BLITZ projections – and the pairing of Lawrence and Ridley should be a stack used by very few, that has the potential to win GPPs.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Josh Jacobs ($7,700)
Jacobs is one of the best contrarian running back targets available for Week 1, with the BLITZ projections slating him to be only around 6% owned on DraftKings. Finishing as the NFL’s leading rusher last season, Jacobs ranked second in carries per game (20) and fifth in red zone rushes (43) while playing 74.3% of his team’s snaps. The 25-year-old also saw solid work in the passing game, obtaining a target on 18% of his routes while running a route on 53% of his team’s dropbacks.
Jacobs is projecting for low ownership because he is in a difficult spot on the road in Denver. Yes, the Broncos were the eighth best-graded defense on PFF last season, but Jacobs had no issues against the divisional rival, erupting for 37.5 DraftKings points in Week 4 and then for 22 DraftKings points when the two clubs met again in Week 11.
Overall, in seven divisional matchups last season, the back was a beast, amassing 24 DraftKings PPG. Jacobs has the eighth-best ceiling on the slate among skill players in THE BLITZ projections and could be a true changer in GPPs if his dominance against AFC West teams continues Sunday.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
DK Metcalf ($7,000)
With THE BLITZ projections slating Metcalf for single-digit ownership on DraftKings, the wideout is a must-have for GPPs. Last season, Metcalf led the Seahawks with a 26.7% target share while running a route on 89% of his team’s dropbacks. Standing at 6’4” and weighing in at 236 pounds, the 26-year-old is one of the premier red zone targets in the NFL, and last season, Metcalf led the league in endzone targets (22).
Additionally, the receiver was active as a deep threat, ranking ninth in air yards (1,580) and 12th in targets over 20 yards (27). With his elite usage in scoring territory and as a deep threat, Metcalf always brings one of the highest ceilings among skill players, and this Sunday, he meets a Rams defense that gave up the ninth most yards per pass attempt last season (6.9).
Specifically, Los Angeles surrendered the fourth-most catches (231) and seventh-most yards (2,729) to wide receivers. With All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey now with the Dolphins – who was the fourth highest graded cornerback on PFF last season – the Rams’ secondary should have even more trouble this year and Metcalf should begin his 2023 season with a bang this Sunday.
The Seahawks boast the third-highest implied team total on the slate (25.75 points) and they’re favored by 5.5 points over Los Angeles. Including a 29.7 DraftKings points outburst against the Rams, Metcalf provided 18.3 DraftKings PPG when Seattle was favorited last season (six games), via the Trends tool.
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NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
T.J. Hockenson ($5,900)
After thriving with the Vikings after the club traded for him mid-season last year, Hockenson was rewarded with a four-year contract extension last week, making him the highest paid tight end in NFL history on a per-year basis. In his first 10 games with Minnesota last season, Hockenson was one of the most utilized pass catchers in the NFL, seeing a target on 23% of his routes – including 19 red zone targets and eight targets over 20 yards – while running a route on 86% of his team’s dropbacks.
Overall, Hockenson ranked fourth in the NFL with 92 targets over this span, which is more than Tyreek Hill ($8,200) and A.J. Brown ($7,600) during this timeframe, who are both significantly more expensive than Hockenson ($5,900) on DraftKings this week.
As for his matchup, Hockenson opens his 2023 campaign against a Buccaneers defense this Sunday that gave up the fifth most touchdowns to tight ends last season (9). Minnesota carries the third highest implied team total on the slate in this spot (25.75 points) and Hockenson was incredible when playing behind an implied team total of at least 25 points last season, generating 29 DraftKings PPG (four games), via the Trends Tool.
With most DFS players preferring to pay down at tight end, Hockenson should naturally get overlooked this Sunday – our BLITZ projections have Hockenson forecasted to be around 7% owned on DraftKings – and he is without a doubt one of the best ways to gain leverage in GPPs.
