The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Ji Hwan Bae ($2,700): Second Baseman/Outfielder, Pittsburgh Pirates
Bae is one of four players tied for the highest Bargain Rating on the DraftKings main slate on Monday night. Bae is projected to hit at the top of the order for the Pirates as they host the Cardinals to start the week.
Bae has shown a nice ceiling this season when available and just recently returned from missing a month with a left ankle sprain. In his three games since returning, he’s gone 3-for-11 with two doubles, three walks, and two runs scored. He has a 50% hard-hit rate since returning but has yet to attempt a stolen base. On the season, Bae is 20-for-26 in stolen base attempts.
His speed and spot atop the Pirates’ batting order give him a high ceiling as a bargain play under $3K on Monday. In their matchup with St. Louis, Pittsburgh has the third-highest Implied Run Total on the slate.
He has the highest median and ceiling projection of all players under $3K using THE BAT X projections. He also has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate.
Lenyn Sosa ($2,000): Second Baseman, Chicago White Sox
The White Sox have been able to give Sosa more playing time while Tim Anderson has served his suspension. Sosa has an 85% Bargain Rating, tied for the fourth-highest on this slate.
Sosa didn’t start on Sunday but homered after he replaced Elvis Andrus and helped get the White Sox offense going. Sosa is projected to start again on Monday night against Luis Castillo as the White Sox come home to host the Mariners.
The 23-year-old has gone 3-for-9 with that home run since being called back up for the first time since May. He showed good power at Triple-A with 17 homers in 71 games and a .350 wOBA. Since the White Sox are out of the playoff race, they should see if Sosa is ready to be a regular next season.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Lucas Giolito ($9,300 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Even though Giolito is far from the most expensive option, he has the highest ceiling projection in both the FantasyLabs and THE BATX projections. He edges out Luis Castillo, James Paxton, and Cristian Javier.
Giolito’s season-long numbers are not pretty from his slow start with the White Sox, but he has been better since being traded to the Angels just before the Trade Deadline. The Braves knocked him around in one of those starts, but he has been able to go six innings in his two most recent outings with 12 total strikeouts.
His only home start for the Halos was one of his best of the season. He went six innings against the Giants, earning a win with seven strikeouts, 21.3 DraftKings points, and 40 FanDuel points.
Giolito is in a favorable matchup against the Reds’ young but inexperienced lineup. He has the highest K Prediction on the slate, and the Angels are -125 favorites.
Hitter
Julio Rodriguez ($5,900 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) at Chicago White Sox
After being stuck in the dreaded sophomore slump, Rodriguez has turned things around to return to fantasy relevance since the All-Star break. After trending in the right direction for a month, he caught fire over the past week and is now right alongside Ronald Acuña Jr. and Fernando Tatis Jr. for the highest ceiling projections.
Rodriguez set a new MLB record for most hits in a four-game span with 17 hits from Wednesday to Saturday last week. He cooled off a little on Sunday but still went 1-for-5 with a double.
In his past 15 contests, Rodriguez has exceeded salary-based expectations nine times and produced 10 multi-hit games. Over that span, he’s gone 33-for-71 (.465) with seven stolen bases, nine doubles, four homers, a .527 wOBA, and an average of 17.1 DraftKings points and 22.1 FanDuel points per contest.
You can see how hot he has been and how he has buoyed the rest of the Mariners’ lineup over the past 30 days using our PlateIQ:
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some players that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Paul Blackburn ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel) vs. Kansas City Royals
Can you really back a starting pitcher from the A’s?
The aggregate projections give Blackburn the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate as he and the Athletics welcome in the Royals.
While his season-long numbers can easily make him fade into the rest of the mess that is Oakland’s starting rotation, his recent starts have been excellent. In his last five outings, he has allowed a total of seven runs while allowing zero or one run in three of them. He also has 30 strikeouts in 30 innings, averaging 19.4 DraftKings points and 36.6 FanDuel points per start.
In his last two home starts, he allowed just one run on seven hits in 11 1/3 innings while picking up 12 strikeouts in matchups with the Giants and Astros. Since he’s averaging a strikeout per inning and limiting damage so well, he could be a great value in this matchup against the Royals and is projected for relatively low ownership.
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Hitters
Rafel Devers ($5,700 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel) at Houston Astros
Devers has the highest ceiling projection of all 3B on this slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel, even though he isn’t the most expensive option at the hot corner.
The Red Sox lefties, as a whole, are in a good spot against Cristian Javier, who has allowed five homers over his past four starts while pitching to a 5.31 ERA and 6.46 FIP. Javier has given up 19 homers this season, 10 of which have been hit by left-handed batters.
Devers has been outstanding in his 30 games since the All-Star break and has hit .336 with seven doubles, nine homers, and a .440 wOBA. Over that span, he averaged 9.6 DraftKings points and 12.5 FanDuel points per game.
Over the weekend, he was even better as the Red Sox swept the Yankees in the Bronx. He had three hits in each game and went 9-for-13 (.692) with a double, two home runs, and an unsustainable but incredibly fun .804 wOBA.
If you’re spending up on a bat at 3B, Devers is a great centerpiece to build around.
Nolan Schanuel ($2,600 DraftKings, $2,000 FanDuel) vs. Cincinnati Reds
The Angels drafted Schanuel with the No. 11 overall pick in the MLB Draft less than two months ago, but he’s already arrived in the majors and is making an impact. Using the aggregate projections, he has the highest projected Plus/Minus at 1B on DraftKings and the third-highest at the C/1B position on FanDuel.
He hit in the leadoff spot in each of their three games since joining the team and went 3-for-12 (.250) with two walks and four runs scored. He produced 7.0 DraftKings points and 9.27 FanDuel points per game in those three games and has shown the potential for even more.
In his quick climb through the minors, he hit .370 in 96 professional plate appearances with one home run, two stolen bases, and a 1.004 OPS. The Angels are taking on Graham Ashcraft ($8,500), and Schanuel should be in an excellent spot to bring value as long as he keeps hitting atop the Angels’ lineup in front of Shohei Ohtani.
