The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Kyle Lewis ($2,500): Outfielder, Arizona Diamondbacks
A smaller slate hasn’t diminished the quality of value options on Thursday’s main slate. There are several standout fantasy options available. Chief among them is Lewis, who was recently recalled by the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Lewis has played in two games since returning to the majors, recording two hits, a walk, a run, and an RBI in Wednesday night’s win over the Colorado Rockies. He’ll have a chance to replicate that tonight against Rich Hill. The veteran lefty rates as one of the worst pitchers in the bigs, bottoming out with a 5.53 expected ERA and .476 expected slugging percentage. Lewis benefits from that matchup, as his lone homer and two of his three extra-base hits this season have come against southpaws.
Hits come in bunches for Lewis. The former first-round draft pick has two multi-hit efforts over his last three appearances. He can keep that train on the tracks with another solid performance against Hill.
Ramon Laureano ($2,900): Outfielder, Cleveland Guardians
We’re taking a contrarian approach with our second bargain pick, highlighting Laureano as a progression candidate. The Guardians outfielder has looked uninspired lately, but we like him to reach his fantasy ceiling in this AL Central showdown.
Laureano has fallen below typical benchmarks. The 29-year-old has just five hits in 34 at-bats this month, totaling just two doubles. That means Laureano only has a .147 batting average and .207 slugging percentage, dropping both regular season benchmarks below expected values. Additionally, he’s further off normal career ranges, implying he’s a progression candidate over the latter part of the season.
Tarik Skubal returned to the Tigers lineup at the start of July. Early returns aren’t exceptional, with the southpaw recording a 4.18 ERA and a 43.7% hard-hit rate. Worse, he’s given up four or more earned runs in three of his last five starts. Laureano is poised for a breakout performance, and Skubal could facilitate that progression.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Lance Lynn ($9,400 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
A change of scenery has made all the difference for Lynn. The veteran starter was dealt to the Dodgers before the trade deadline, and Lynn is flying high. He’ll have an opportunity to put together another above-average outing against the Milwaukee Brewers.
Lynn is a perfect 3-0 in a Dodgers uniform, but it gets even better than that. The two-time All-Star has an elite 2.00 ERA across that modest three-game sample, allowing a minuscule 0.94 walks + hits per inning pitched and 6.5 hits per nine innings.
Lynn is still above his expected ERA on the season, suggesting more top-tier performances are expected as stats balance with analytics.
According to our projections, there’s a good chance Lynn maintains that standard versus the Brew Crew. Milwaukee has struggled at the plate this year, compiling the fourth-worst OPS and ninth-fewest runs on the year. Lynn will be the gift that keeps on giving as he maintains his fine form in this crucial National League matchup.
Hitter
Jose Ramirez ($6,000 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Tigers
For the past six years, Ramirez was revered as a perennial MVP candidate. He’s been less involved in the conversation this year, but we’re starting to get a glimpse of what separated Ramirez from the rest of the field for so long.
Ramirez enters tonight’s contest on a modest three-game hitting streak. That follows a four-game hitting streak, which was interrupted by a three-game hitless streak. All told, Ramirez has nine hits over his past ten games and should continue to build off his recent efforts.
The switch-hitting third baseman has a complete fantasy profile. Ramirez has as many stolen bases as he does home runs, adding 69 runs and 66 RBI. The Guardians are starting to get more out of their offensive catalyst, as Ramirez has been more involved in run production thanks to his recent surge at the plate. With Skubal running pitches down Broadway, Ramirez will have a bigger platform to make an impact.
Ramirez’s PlateIQ profile reveals yet another edge against Skubal. He’s got a .273 ISO and .350 wOBA when facing sliders from left-handers. This is Skubal’s second-favorite pitch, allowing Ramirez to continue his recent uptick in production. That’s reflected in our projections, which show Ramirez as the median and ceiling leader on the main slate.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Corbin Burnes ($10,600 DraftKings, $10,100 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
It may seem a little counterintuitive, but there may be an edge to rostering both starting pitchers from the Dodgers vs. Brewers clash. Burnes is the probable starter for the visitors and remains a focal point in the NL Cy Young conversation. He and Lynn are projected to rank near the top of the fantasy leaderboard at night’s end.
His last start notwithstanding, Burnes has re-kindled his Cy Young-caliber form. The 28-year-old ranks in the 85th percentile or better in expected slugging percentage, hard-hit rate, and barrel percentage. Moreover, he’s improved his metrics without compromising his strikeout metrics, as Burnes remains in the upper echelon in whiff and chase rates.
Before his last start, Burnes hadn’t allowed more than two earned runs since the end of June. Across that eight-game sample, the righty has decreased his ERA to 2.66 with 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings and a sterling 4-1 record.
Lynn and Burnes can’t both get the win bonus, but both are top-end pitchers worth including in any format.
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Hitters
Paul Goldschmidt ($5,800 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) vs. New York Mets
The reigning NL MVP comes into tonight’s contest against the New York Mets at a discounted rate. Goldschmidt normally hovers around the $6,000/$4,000 range but has a slightly lower salary against the Mets. Given his recent performances and pitching matchup, there’s a significant advantage in rostering Goldy tonight.
Goldschmidt has seven hits over his previous four games, including three multi-hit efforts, two doubles, and a long ball. Predictably, this has yielded improved run production, as Goldschmidt has driven in three while coming around to score three more. Still, he has not yet reached his expected slugging percentage, implying Goldschmidt remains a legitimate threat over his coming sample.
The Cardinals’ first baseman is almost 50 points below expected, despite maintaining his gold-standard analytics. Facing left-hander Jose Quintana, Goldschmidt will be more than capable of maximizing his fantasy production and ending the night as one of the best performers.
Pete Alonso ($5,300 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
There’s only one way for the Mets to keep pace with the Cardinals: to fight fire with fire. The Mets can turn to their own first baseman as he cements himself as the best player in Queens.
Alonso is better than most at getting the barrel to the ball. The two-time Home Run Derby champion sits in the 92nd percentile with his 14.6% barrel rate. As expected, that lends itself to a more robust expected slugging percentage, with Along slotting into the 94th percentile with a .535 mark.
His power stroke has been on full display more recently. Six of Alonso’s last eight hits have gone for extra bases. That sample includes five home runs and a double, contributing to his seven runs scored and 12 runs batted in.
