The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features a four-game slate starting at 6:40 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Aaron Nola ($10,500) Philadelphia Phillies (-254) vs. Washington Nationals
On a slate with plenty of high-end options, Nola stands out as the best of the bunch. There are potential issues with all of the top starters tonight, and Nola is no exception, but his are a bit easier to explain away.
Namely, he has a relatively ugly 4.58 ERA. However, his xERA and xFIP are considerably lower, which suggests he’s been a bit more unlucky than good. I believe positive regression is likelier to strike in good matchups, which Nola certainly has today.
He’s taking on a Nationals team with an 87 wRC+, only three points off from the last-place ranking against righties. However, they’re notoriously hard to strike out, with the second-lowest mark against right-handers. Nola’s 25.1% strikeout rate is solid but not exceptional, so his upside is somewhat limited.
Nola also has excellent Vegas data, with a heavy moneyline and an opponent implied total of just 3.6 runs. While our next couple of pitchers have similar lines, there are bigger question marks surrounding each of them. That makes Nola the safest play, especially for cash games.
MLB DFS Value Pick
James Paxton ($9,300) Boston Red Sox (-255) vs. Kansas City Royals
Paxton is one of the other high-upside plays on tonight’s slate. While he doesn’t fit the traditional definition of a value play, he might be the cheapest option I’m considering tonight, making him the “value” role by default.
Like the other pitchers we’re discussing, he has a solid matchup against the Royals. Kansas City ranks 26th against left-handed pitching by wRC+, with a top-ten strikeout rate. That should boost Paxton’s strong 27.3% strikeout rate into elite territory tonight.
The challenge is the game environment, with Boston having the worst Park factor and Weather Rating for pitchers tonight. That leads to the Royals having a solid 4.2-run implied total, though it’s a safe assumption that some of those runs come against the Red Sox bullpen.
Either way, Paxton is still a solid choice, though he has a somewhat elevated risk of allowing too many runs to make his way into the winning lineup.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Clayton Kershaw ($10,200) Los Angeles Dodgers (-355) vs. Colorado Rockies
On paper, Kershaw is easily the top option on the slate. The all-time great has been as dominant as ever this season, with a stellar 2.55 ERA and a slate-leading 27.7% strikeout rate. On top of that, he’s taking on a Rockies team that’s been historically bad against left-handed pitching. Colorado has a league-low wRC+ and a league-high strikeout rate against southpaws.
The concern lies around Kershaw’s form and pitch count tonight. This will be his first start since late June after suffering a shoulder injury. The Dodgers have a comfortable six-game lead in the NL West, so Kershaw’s starts will be more working into postseason form than eating innings.
Still, even an abbreviated Kershaw start could be enough to lead this small four-game slate. On a per-hitter basis, he has the highest strikeout upside on the board, and it’s hard to see Colorado mustering much run production against him. Additionally, his injury return should keep his ownership to a reasonable level, at least in the context of this tiny slate.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
We’re trying it again with the Red Sox, who have largely disappointed in their series with the Royals. Still, they lead the slate with a 6.6-run implied total. That’s a number we rarely see outside Coors Field, making it hard to ignore the Red Sox stack.
Another factor in their favor is their projected lineup against left-handed Austin Cox. This iteration of their lineup saves some salary — crucial given today’s pitching options — and also features Trevor Story. Story will be making just his third appearance this season but historically has excellent numbers against lefties.
That includes a .302 career batting average and elite .986 OPS, though the bulk of his career was in Colorado. Still, he’s a strong option today, as is the rest of the Boston stack.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Freddie Fermin C ($3,400 DraftKings; $2,700 FanDuel) Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox (James Paxton)
While Kansas City has been bad against lefties as a team, they’ve had a few bright spots in their lineup. One of those is Fermin, their rookie catcher who sports a .303 batting average and .881 OPS overall.
He’s been even better against lefties, with his OPS rising to .920. I identified him as a solid pick against southpaws using our PlateIQ tool, where he immediately stands out:
With his salary and the overall offensive environment in Boston, he’s a solid option overall. That’s especially true if fading Paxton, who should be one of the more popular pitchers tonight.
Alec Bohm 1B/3B ($4,400 DraftKings; $3,200 FanDuel) Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals (Patrick Corbin)
Given their matchup with Patrick Corbin, I want some exposure to Philadelphia tonight. We’ve picked on Corbin for the better part of two years, and he has a 5.03 ERA on the season.
However, it isn’t easy to fit many Phillies on DraftKings, as they’re appropriately priced for the matchup. Bohm is a possible exception at $4,400. He has the best wOBA and ISO of any Phillie against lefties, despite being their sixth-most expensive hitter.
He — and the rest of his team — are noticeably underpriced on FanDuel, where he has a 79% Bargain Rating.
Harold Ramirez OF ($3,400 DraftKings; $2,700 FanDuel) Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Matthew Liberatore)
The Rays are one of four teams with an implied total of over five today, which explains the limited number of attractive pitching options. I certainly want some exposure to their bats and love the price tag on Ramirez.
He’s another player priced for their overall production but on the correct side of their platoon splits. His overall OPS is .786 on the season, but against lefties, that number jumps to an outstanding 1.025. While he won’t get all his at-bats against the left-handed Liberatore, he should get enough to pay off his reasonable salary.
Fading Liberatore stands out as an appealing option using our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:
