The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Wednesday features a nine-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Shohei Ohtani ($11,300) Los Angeles Angels (-140) vs. San Francisco Giants
Ohtani is an easy choice today, He’s one of the game’s best pitchers and one of the only true aces on Wednesday’s slate. His strikeout rate has risen all the way to 31.8%, which trails only Spencer Strider and Kevin Gausman ($10,800) for the major league lead.
However, Gausman is taking on the Guardians, who have the lowest strikeout rate against righties in the majors. Ohtani draws the Giants, a better overall offense but one that ranks fourth in strikeouts. With pitchers in the five-figure range, we need plenty of upside to justify their salaries, making Ohtani the better pick.
Our K prediction has Ohtani more than a full strikeout ahead of Gausman, with similar Vegas Data for both pitchers. The Park Factor, Weather Rating, and even Umpire score also all favor Ohtani to varying degrees, making him worth the extra $500 in salary.
Ohtani leads both THE BAT and FantasyLabs models in median and ceiling today by a comfortable margin. While his ownership is also likely to lead the slate, he’s worth eating the chalk on tonight.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Luis Severino ($5,600) New York Yankees (TBD) at Chicago White Sox
Severino is a scary choice tonight, with his bargain salary representative of how bad he’s been this year. However, the 29-year-old has a much longer track record of excellent performance, making him a tempting “buy low” candidate in hopes that he regains form.
Just last season, Severino has a 27.7% strikeout rate and sub-three xERA through 19 starts. This year, his strikeout rate is below 20%, with a horrible 6.54 xERA. It seems unlikely that his skills have fallen off a cliff, given his age, making his lack of production fairly confusing.
The matchup also makes it much more palatable to roll the dice once more on Clevinger, as he draws a White Sox team that is tied for dead last in the majors in wRC+ against righties. If there’s ever a spot for him to get back on track, this is it.
He leads both sets of projections in Pts/Sal, though his projection is likely somewhat in flux as we await betting lines on this game. Still, his minuscule salary should mean he stays near the top in that category.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Max Fried ($9,400) Atlanta Braves (-300) at Pittsburgh Pirates
After missing nearly three months of action, Fried returned with a bang last week. He struck out eight through six innings of work, allowing just three hits and no runs. Unfortunately, he was limited to a pitch count of just 72. Still, he was efficient enough to have a big day nonetheless.
This time, he draws an easier matchup against the Pirates and should have a slightly longer leash as he works back to full strength. Those are both encouraging signs, though we shouldn’t anticipate massive strikeout numbers from Fried every time out. He’s a career 24% strikeout pitcher, which is solid but not elite.
Still, he’s projecting for roughly half of Ohtani’s ownership, with the best overall Vegas Data on the slate. Pittsburgh’s implied 3.6 runs are tied for the lowest on the slate, with Atlanta the heaviest moneyline favorite. Fried works as both a GPP pivot and/or salary arbitrage option on Ohtani tonight.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
Boston is yet again projecting as the top stack in our models, despite a disappointing three-run performance last night against the Royals. It’s easy to see why, though, as their 6.4-run implied total tops the slate.
The Royals are starting Jordan Lyles ($6,000), who’s been terrible this year. Lyles comes in with a 6.24 ERA, and his ERA predictors are all around five. He’s been especially bad against lefties, with a .359 wOBA allowed compared to .316 against righties.
That’s a massive factor for this lefty-heavy Red Sox lineup and explains part of their massive implied total. The 75 Park Factor and 68 Weather Rating serve as a further boost to hitters, making the Red Sox borderline must-play at their affordable salaries.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Danny Jansen C ($3,500 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel) Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardians (Logan Allen)
Jansen is very affordable tonight, considering he’s projected to hit cleanup in the Blue Jays lineup. Toronto is implied for a solid 4.6 runs on the road tonight in Cleveland. Jansen is one of just five catchers hitting in the top half of their team’s lineup tonight — and he’s $700 cheaper than the next cheapest option.
More importantly, he’s taking on the left-handed Logan Allen of Cleveland, putting Jansen on the strong side of his platoon splits, as evidenced by our PlateIQ tool:
Ronald Acuna OF ($6,800 DraftKings; $4,900 FanDuel) Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates (Quinn Priester)
I could leave Acuna in here on a daily basis, and nobody would bat an eye. He’s averaging an absurd 12.9 DraftKings points per game this season, thanks to an elite speed and power combination. The new rules have served him well, and he’s already blown past his career high with 53 stolen bases on the season.
He and the Braves are also taking on a rookie pitcher in Priester, who has an 8.69 ERA through his first four starts, which is why he stands out, especially today. Keep an eye on the lineups page, though. Acuna exited last night’s game after being hit by a pitch. While X-rays came back negative, he could still get a day or two off.
If that happens, there are plenty of viable options on the Braves to consider as a pivot, so be sure to check back in this evening before submitting your final lineup.
Ryan O’Hearn 1B/OF ($2,900 DraftKings; $2,700 FanDuel) Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros (Cristian Javier)
While it’s a difficult matchup on paper with the Astros’ Javier, I’m interested in Orioles lefties tonight. Javier’s wOBA allowed against left-handed hitting is a full 100 points higher than against righties, one of the most extreme splits in baseball.
That makes O’Hearn a solid option tonight. He’s hitting .307 on the season with nine home runs through 68 games. He’s also on the correct side of his platoon splits, as he rarely sees action against left-handed pitchers.
That puts O’Hearn at a slightly increased risk of being punch hit for late in the game, but given his salary, that’s not a deal breaker tonight.
