The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Close out the weekend with an interesting 11-game slate starting at 1:35 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Tyler Glasnow ($11,000) Tampa Bay Rays (-202) at Detroit Tigers
Tyler Glasnow made his season debut on May 27 and has been rock solid for Tampa. He is 5-3 with a 3.15 ERA in 12 starts. He went 3-2 with a 2.11 ERA in six July starts.
PlateIQ illustrates the positive matchup for Glasnow against a struggling Tigers lineup. Detroit has a low run projection Sunday along with a low home-run expectation in a difficult ballpark for lefties. This Tigers lineup has a .139 ISO and .296 wOBA on the season.
With a high 34.5 K% this season, Glasnow is suited well to take advantage of Sunday’s matchup and make good on his elevated salary.
Editor’s Note: Glasnow has been scratched from Sunday’s start due to back spasms.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Johan Oviedo ($6,900) Pittsburgh Pirates (+170) at Milwaukee Brewers
With only a few bargain targets on Sunday’s slate, Johan Oviedo is an interesting proposition against the Brewers. The 25-year-old righty is 5-11 with a 4.42 ERA on the season for the Pirates.
Over his last four starts, Oviedo has been solid with three games of 20-plus DraftKings points in that span. He has a 46.1% ground-ball rate on the season and averages over 90 pitches a game.
The Brewers boast just two high-wOBA and three high-ISO hitters in Sunday’s lineup. This could be a low-scoring game in Milwaukee on Sunday with Oviedo providing a strong bargain value.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Brandon Woodruff ($9,300) Milwaukee Brewers (-210) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Making his return to the mound after a four-month recovery from an arm injury, Brandon Woodruff is an interesting lineup choice on Sunday’s slate with some wild-card value.
Woodruff made two starts at the beginning of the season and allowed just one run in 11.1 innings. He had an excellent 2022 campaign with a 13-4 record and 3.05 ERA. He notched a solid 30.6 K% last season as well.
The Pirates have one of the lowest implied run totals on the slate. Don’t expect Woodruff to throw 100 pitches, but he could still provide fantasy value Sunday against a beatable Pittsburgh lineup.
You can also target Woodruff’s potential limitations with his strikeouts prop on PrizePicks. Be sure to check out all the pick’ems PrizePicks has to offer with PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 deposit match.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Model when generated by projected points belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
The Red Sox look to avoid a sweep Sunday after dropping the first two games to the Blue Jays at home. Boston has lost six of their its seven, but the models like the Red Sox offense to get back on track Sunday against Toronto righty Chris Bassitt. Bassitt is 10-6 with an even 4.00 ERA in 23 starts.
Rafael Devers leads the stack in salary with his .266/.336/.519 batting line, 26 home runs and 79 RBIs. He leads the Red Sox with a .238 ISO.
Outfielders Jarren Duran and Masataka Yoshida are solid mid-range lineup options Sunday. Duran is near the league leaders with his .313 batting average and .373 wOBA. He has two of his eight home runs in the last three games. Yoshida also lands above the .300 mark with his .307/.366/.481 line, but he has just one double-digit DraftKings point game in his last nine.
Justin Turner and Triston Casas round out Sunday’s top stack. The veteran Turner continues to produce at age 38, with 17 home runs and 71 RBIs on the season. At 23 years old, Casas is still finding his big-league comfort, but he is second in the lineup with a .233 ISO.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters who stand out.
Elly De La Cruz 3B/SS ($6,200 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals (Jake Irvin)
The hottest rookie in baseball this season burst onto the scene with an incredible June, batting .307/.358/.523. Despite some highlight-reel moments, Elly De La Cruz came back to earth in July with a .238/.277/.410 line.
Maybe the most perplexing thing has been the lack of stolen bases for the speedster. He amassed 17 stolen bags in the first month and a half of his big league career, but he has not added another since July 17.
The Reds take on fellow rookie Jake Irvin on the mound for the Nationals. The 26-year-old righty is 3-5 with a 4.86 ERA and high 1.43 WHIP on the season. The model likes De La Cruz to produce fantasy numbers Sunday. He has two 16-point DraftKings results in his last three games.
Kyle Schwarber OF ($4,900 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kansas City Royals (Zack Greinke)
The model continues to like Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber and his boom-or-bust proposition. Schwarber has 27 home runs and 65 RBIs on the season to go with a lackluster .176 batting average.
Schwarber has just one hit in his last eight games, but it doesn’t take much for him to get going. He leads the Phillies with a .226 ISO, and Philadelphia has an elevated home run projection Sunday.
The Phillies look to take advantage of a plus matchup against longtime veteran Zack Greinke. The 39-year-old is 1-11 with a 5.32 ERA and 1.26 WHIP on the season.
Tommy Edman 2B/SS ($3,400 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) St. Louis Cardinals vs. Colorado Rockies (Austin Gomber)
Tommy Edman is a cheaper bargain option on Sunday’s slate. The Cardinals shortstop has a hit in each of his last four games, including three hits yesterday with a double and triple.
Overall, Edman is batting .241/.302/.395 on the season with seven home runs and 31 RBIs. He has a .384 xSLG and 40.1 hard hit %, the highest rate of his career.
The Cardinals face Austin Gomber on the hill Sunday in St. Louis. The Rockies lefty is 8-8 with a 5.68 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. He is 3-4 with a 4.05 ERA in games away from Coors Field.
