The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Tom Murphy ($2,800): Catcher, Seattle Mariners
Coming in close to 20% projected ownership on DraftKings is Mariners catcher Tom Murphy. Priced at $2,800, Murphy has an 85% Bargain Rating and is one of the best values on the slate. He is batting .300 this season with an incredible .277 ISO and 16% barrel percentage. Over the last nine games, Murphy has 12 hits and is averaging 9.7 DraftKings points per game.
Murphy is projected to bat sixth for the Mariners and will get the platoon advantage against Angels starting southpaw Reid Detmers. On the season, Detmers has a 4.35 ERA which has skyrocketed during the month of July to 6.12 as he went 1-3 in five starts. The Mariners are only implied for 4.2 runs, but Murphy has proven to be an elite value at the catcher position.
Brendan Rodgers ($2,400): Second Baseman, Colorado Rockies
After missing the first four months of the season with a shoulder injury, Rockies second baseman Brendan Rodgers is working his way into the lineup after back-to-back strong seasons. Over the last two years, Rodgers had over a .160 ISO and a .275 batting average with 28 home runs and 114 RBIs. His cheap price tag is drawing around 10% ownership tonight.
Rodgers draws a matchup against 41-year-old Adam Wainwright who is showing his age this year. Wainwright has allowed a career-high 7.18 ERA, 1.72 HR/9 and his strikeout rate is ridiculously low at 11.3%. Over his last five starts, Wainwright has also allowed 23 earned runs and is averaging -2.3 DraftKings points per start. Rodgers is a fantastic way to save salary.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Aaron Nola ($10,000 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel) vs. Kansas City Royals
By far, the biggest favorite on the slate is the Phillies over the Royals at -250 with Aaron Nola on the mound. In THE BAT X and our in-house projections, Nola has the highest ceiling and is leading the way among all pitchers with seven Pro Trends. Not being the most expensive pitcher on either DraftKings or FanDuel makes him even more intriguing in this easy matchup.
The Royals have the second-worst record in the league, as their offense scares no opposing pitcher. They have scored the second-fewest amount of runs, are one of four teams with under 100 home runs, and rank inside the top 10 in strikeout rate. Nola’s 24.7% strikeout rate is below his average, but he has the upside in this spot for double-digit strikeouts and a victory.
Hitter
Kyle Schwarber ($4,600 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel) vs. Kansas City Royals
Sticking with the Phillies, Kyle Schwarber is a boom-or-bust fantasy producer. One on hand, Schwarber is only batting .181 on the season with a near 30% strikeout rate, while on the other hand, his 27 home runs are tied for the sixth-highest mark in the league. He had a stretch a few weeks ago where he hit a home run in four-straight games. His power provides a ceiling.
Schwarber has the platoon advantage against Royals right-hander Jordan Lyles who has a 2-12 record this season with a 6.15 ERA and a 1.76 HR/9 allowed. Lyles has also allowed a 10.2% barrel percentage, and his 16.7% strikeout rate is one of the league’s worst for a starting pitcher. Schwarber is projected to bat leadoff for the Phillies, who have a 5.7 implied run total.
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More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Yu Darvish ($8,300 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Yu Darvish has seen his salary drop $1,000 on DraftKings despite pitching his best outing of the year in his last start. Darvish threw six scoreless innings allowing only three hits while striking out nine batters. In three of his last four starts, Darvish has finished with over 27 DraftKings points. That is something to build on before he faces a tough Dodgers lineup.
The Dodgers are one of the most feared hitting teams in the league, but Darvish had no trouble picking up a win and only allowing one run in his first start against them this season. Darvish has a 25.9% strikeout rate and is allowing a very low 6.9% barrel percentage, which will help in this matchup. He is too cheap on DraftKings at $8,300 with a 93% Bargain Rating.
Hitters
Freddie Freeman ($6,400 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel) at San Diego Padres
The one player who looks exceptional in any matchup is Dodgers first baseman, Freddie Freeman. “Free-Money” Freddie has been on an absolute tear recently, with 12 hits in his last 17 at-bats. During that time, he has five doubles, one home run, and five runs scored.
Freeman’s salary is high across the industry, but he has displayed his consistency by hitting a career-best .341, which ranks as the second-highest in the league. Padres starter Yu Darvish has shown tendencies to get blown up and does struggle more with left-handed batters than right. That is great news for Freeman, who has a .426 ISO and .561 wOBA against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days (via PlateIQ):
Lars Nootbar ($4,400 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Rockies
Projected to bat leadoff for the Cardinals, Lars Nootbar is another hitter who has been incredibly consistent lately. Nootbar has a positive Plus/Minus in 10 of his last 15 games. He has two or more hits in four of his last seven, including three home runs. The Cardinals’ 5.9 implied run total is the second-highest on the slate, but make sure to monitor the weather in St. Louis.
Nootbar will get the platoon advantage against Rockies right-hander Chris Flexen who had an awful first start since being acquired by the Mariners. In his last start against the Athletics, Flexen threw 3.2 innings and gave up five earned runs and two home runs while walking six batters. He is in for another rough outing against the Cardinals and leadoff hitter Nootbar.
