The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Ian Happ ($3,300): Outfield, Chicago Cubs
Not surprisingly, the Chicago Cubs are among our projection leaders in expected runs. The Cubbies have been running hot of late, easily putting together the best OPS and most runs over the past two weeks. Ian Happ has carved out a hole in the heart of the order and should maintain his fine form Wednesday against the Cincinnati Reds.
The Cubs’ switch-hitting outfielder has been magnificent over his recent sample. Happ has hits in eight of his last ten, totaling ten hits, five of which have gone for extra bags, with 13 runs scored, five RBI, and one stolen base. Still, there’s more room for improvement as Happ remains below his expected slugging percentage and below his career benchmark, suggesting his upward trajectory has yet to peak.
Reds’ probable starter Brandon Williamson gives up a concerning amount of contact, a concerning amount of which is of the hard-hit variety. The young lefty ranks in the 30th percentile in hard-hit rate, contributing to a .484 expected slugging percentage, putting him in the bottom 8% of MLB pitchers. Happ will perpetuate the Cubs’ hot streak en route to reaching his fantasy ceiling.
Mark Vientos ($2,000): First/Third Base, New York Mets
The New York Mets re-invented themselves this week, turning an eye to the future rather than trying to make a championship run with an underperforming roster. That means more at-bats for youngsters like Mark Vientos as the Mets take stock of who will help them long-term.
Vientos is making a strong argument for inclusion on the roster. The 23-year-old slugged .571 over the final ten days of July, swatting two doubles and one homer, representing nearly half of his seven hits. Moreover, Vientos has driven in four and come around to score two more across his most recent audition. However, the most attractive part of Vientos’ profile is his underlying metrics. The Mets infielder has a jaw-dropping 13.0% barrel rate and 54.3% hard-hit percentage, highlighting his full-send mentality at the plate.
We’re just scratching the surface with Vientos. The youngster will soon endear himself to the Mets, becoming integral to the future movement.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Gerrit Cole ($10,800 DraftKings, $10,900 FanDuel) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Two AL Cy Young frontrunners go toe-to-toe in a crucial AL East battle. You wouldn’t be wrong for rostering either starter, but our algorithm suggests that Gerrit Cole is the preferred option as the New York Yankees host the Tampa Bay Rays.
As good as Shane McClanahan has been, Cole has asserted himself as the best pitcher in the American League recently. The six-time All-Star leads the league in ERA and innings pitched. More impressively, Cole has delivered a quality start in all but one of his last ten starts, accumulating a 2.30 ERA and a 10.0 K/9 rate. Those numbers have looked even better after the All-Star break, with Cole hammering out a pristine 1.40 ERA and 26 punchouts over 19.1 innings pitched for a 12.1 K/9.
Predictably, Cole’s performances come from a sustainable place and are validated with solid analytics. The Yankees’ ace has a 24.7% whiff rate or better on all five of his offerings, with a 27.3% strikeout rate and 6.6% walk rate.
Rays hitters have been mired in a funk lately, giving Cole an unneeded advantage in this one. That’s reflected in our aggregate modeling, with Cole leading our median and ceiling projections. We’re betting he reaches his fantasy ceiling, upholding his status as the betting chalk to take home the Cy Young award.
Hitter
Marcus Semien ($5,800 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) vs. Chicago White Sox
Since the start of the season, the Texas Rangers offense has proved they are the real deal. The AL West leaders are loaded from top to bottom, highlighted by Marcus Semien atop the order. He’s poised to continue a recent uptick in production against Dylan Cease and the Chicago White Sox.
The former Silver Slugger has been mashing the ball over his recent sample. Semien has hits in seven of his previous nine, with four multi-hit contests, two homers, and seven RBI. He’s positioned to improve on those stats against Cease, who has struggled this season.
The White Sox righty has regressed off his career-best metrics last year, falling back toward normal ranges in most categories. Cease ranks in the 52nd percentile in expected ERA, thanks partly to his 44.2% hard-hit rate (18th percentile) and .242 expected batting average (49th percentile).
Semien’s anticipated success is also reflected in his PlateIQ profile. The Rangers infielder has a robust wOBA and ISO against righties, amplified against four-seamers and sliders, Cease’s preferred pitches.
Every factor points toward another strong showing from Semien. We’re backing him as our ceiling play in this inter-divisional showdown.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Kodai Senga ($9,500 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel) vs. Kansas City Royals
Not to overstate things, but the future of the New York Mets rests squarely on Kodai Senga’s shoulders. At least temporarily. The Mets raised the white flag ahead of the MLB trade deadline, looking ahead to future seasons and forging on without their two top arms. Thankfully, they’ve got an above-average pseudo-ace in Senga.
The Japanese national has been a phenomenal add for the Mets. Senga ranks in the top 17% of pitchers in expected slugging percentage and barrel rate, lending itself to a top-tiered expected ERA and solid outcomes. Still, the most appealing fantasy factor is Senga’s elite strikeout stuff. No one can get a read on his ghost forkball, which continues to induce a 58.6% whiff rate. That’s been a fundamental component of Senga’s elite 29.1% strikeout rate.
Senga’s ceiling is even higher against the lowly Kansas City Royals. KC ranks among the bottom three teams in OPS and the bottom half of the league in strikeouts, with both metrics tumbling even further against righties. Senga could be the lone bright spot for the Mets over the coming months, and we expect him to shine on Wednesday.
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Hitters
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($5,100 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) vs. Baltimore Orioles
No one has been able to take down the Baltimore Orioles right now, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will do his part to knock them from their AL East-leading perch. The Toronto Blue Jays will need Vladdy at his best if they hope to get back into their intra-divisional series.
Consistency has kept Guerrero Jr. out of the upper-echelon of hitters, but that hasn’t stopped him from putting together some of the best analytics in the bigs. Vladdy ranks in the 93rd percentile in expected slugging percentage, 97th percentile in hard-hit rate, and 98th percentile in expected batting average. That’s resulted in some big-impact games from Vladdy, who has 30 multi-hit games this season.
Somewhat surprisingly, Guerrero Jr. does his best work against righties. The Jays’ slugger has superior metrics across the board against conventional arms. That’s bad news for Grayson Rodriguez, who is sadly in the first percentile in hard-hit rate and 12th percentile in barrel percentage, setting the stage for a monumental performance from Vlad.
Cody Bellinger ($4,900 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel) vs. Cincinnati Reds
We will stop short of saying that Cody Bellinger has re-captured his MVP; however, the two-time All-Star has revitalized his career with the Cubs. Belli has been a focal point on offense and should deliver another pre-eminent performance versus the Reds.
Shockingly, the left-handed batting Bellinger thrives against southpaws. Seven of Belli’s 16 homers have come off lefties, yielding a superior .633 slugging percentage compared to .500 against right-handed pitchers. More impressively, his home run rate skyrockets when we factor in fewer plate appearances. Bellinger has seven long fly balls in 98 at-bats versus lefties, resulting in a 7.1% home run rate, compared to nine home runs in 192 at-bats against righties for a 4.7% rate.
Bellinger was never able to re-kindle the MVP flame with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Nevertheless, he’s had a renaissance in Chicago that will continue against Williamson on tonight’s main slate.
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