The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Close out the weekend with an interesting eight-game slate starting at 1:35 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Jesus Luzardo ($11,000) Miami Marlins (-150) vs. Detroit Tigers
In his fifth Major League season, Jesus Luzardo is having by far his best results on the mound. The 25-year-old is 8-5 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 2023. He ranks fifth in the National League with 144 strikeouts.
PlateIQ shows the Tigers lineup with a low fantasy projection Sunday in a Miami ballpark that is unforgiving to hitters on both sides of the plate. Detroit’s projected lineup has a low .141 ISO and .297 wOBA.
Luzardo has three games with 28-plus DraftKings points in his last four starts. He notched 13 strikeouts in his last outing against the Rockies on July 23.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Steven Matz ($5,800) St. Louis Cardinals (-145) vs. Chicago Cubs
It’s been a rough season for Steven Matz and the Cardinals. The veteran lefty has not thrown particularly well or received much run support en route to his 1-7 mark.
Matz has a 4.34 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the season with his highest wOBA (.335) since 2018. He was relegated to the bullpen for much of June before returning to the starting rotation in early July.
Since re-entering the rotation, Matz has turned a page on the stat sheet. In July, Matz has a 2.74 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 23 innings. He’s added 27 strikeouts in that span with three games of 20-plus DraftKings points. If he can continue that trend, Matz is a great value option at his current salary.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Justin Verlander ($9,400) New York Mets (-260) vs. Washington Nationals
Justin Verlander and the New York Mets are the biggest favorites on Sunday’s slate behind the future Hall of Famer’s 5-5 record and 3.24 ERA this season. He is coming off two great outings, giving up a total of five hits and one run in 14 total innings.
In eight home starts, Verlander has been rock solid with a 2.34 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. His overall 20.9 K%, however, is his lowest since at least 2015. The Nationals lineup leaves much to be desired, but they do have a relatively low 18.7% strikeout rate.
The Nationals have one of the lowest implied run totals on the slate. Start Verlander in all formats.
You can also target the Nationals’ reluctance to strike out with Verlander’s strikeout prop on PrizePicks. Be sure to check out all the pick’ems PrizePicks has to offer with PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 deposit match.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Model when generated by projected points belongs to the Cleveland Guardians:
The Guardians look to fend off a three-game losing streak Sunday against the White Sox on the south side of Chicago. They scored just two total runs on Friday and Saturday, but the model likes them to release all that pent up fantasy production today against Michael Kopech. Kopech is 4-9 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.42 WHIP on the season.
Jose Ramirez leads the stack in salary and ceiling potential. He is battting .290/.358/.495 on the season with 16 home runs and 60 RBIs. He exploded Wednesday with two home runs and 42 DraftKings points against the Royals.
First baseman Josh Naylor, outfielder Steven Kwan, and second baseman Andres Gimenez serve as the mid-priced stack options in the $4,000 range. Kwan leads the group with a +2.21 Plus/Minus over the last 10 games, but Naylor has been on a tear in July, hitting .349/.385/.605.
Outfielder Will Brennan is the low-end lottery ticket on the slate. He has an impressive .293 xBA, good for top 5% in the league.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters who stand out.
Jorge Polanco 2B ($4,400 DraftKings, $3,100 FanDuel) Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals (Ryan Yarbrough)
The highest-rated hitter in the model, Jorge Polanco rejoined the Twins lineup on Friday after rehabbing a leg injury that kept him out since early June.
On the season, Polanco is batting .248/.292/.442 with five home runs and 19 RBIs in 132 plate appearances. He has two hits and three RBIs in his first two games back.
The Twins will face Ryan Yarbrough on the mound Sunday for the Royals. The lefty is 3-5 with a 4.70 ERA in six starts and 13 appearances this season.
Kyle Schwarber OF ($4,600 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel) Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates (Rich Hill)
On his third team in three seasons, Kyle Schwarber is the ultimate boom-or-bust proposition for fantasy owners. He owns a minuscule .185 batting average with an enticing 27 home runs and 65 RBIs.
When he hits, both literally and figuratively, Schwarber has one of the highest ceilings in the league. Unfortunately, those games can be few and far between. He has more games with multiple walks (5) than multiple hits (4) in the month of July.
Sunday could be a big opportunity for a good Schwarber day at the plate against 43-year-old Rich Hill, who is 7-10 with a 4.82 ERA.
Maikel Garcia 3B ($3,600 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins (Kenta Maeda)
In his rookie season, the 23-year-old Royals third baseman has largely impressed against big-league pitching with a .272/.321/.384 hitting line. Maikel Garcia is short on power, with just four home runs and 32 RBIs on the year.
The ceiling may not be high for Garcia, but he consistently produces double-digit DraftKings fantasy points at a bargain price. He has four such games since July 16 and an average +2.37 Plus/Minus over the last month.
The Royals face Kenta Maeda for the Twins on Sunday. Maeda is having a rough year with a 2-5 record and 4.62 ERA. This is a good spot to take a flyer on Garcia near the bottom of your fantasy lineups.
