The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Friday features a 14-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Is Max Scherzer still a fantasy baseball stud? It’s hard to make that statement based on his last start, allowing five runs on four homers across just six innings. That said, Scherzer was pitching in Fenway Park, one of the toughest venues for pitchers in all of baseball. Scherzer’s ERA now sits at 4.20 for the year, which is far from stud-like.
Still, Scherzer is clearly better than his traditional metrics indicate. His 3.65 xERA is still far worse than it’s been in previous years, but it’s way better than his actual ERA. He’s also striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings.
His biggest issue has been the long ball, allowing a career-worst 1.97 homers per nine innings. That shouldn’t be a huge problem vs. the Nationals. They have one of the most power-starved lineups in baseball, ranking 27th in ISO vs. right-handed pitchers.
Scherzer looks good from a Vegas perspective in this spot. The Nationals’ implied team total of 3.7 runs is tied for the second-lowest mark on the slate, and Scherzer is a significant -190 favorite.
The Nationals do limit their strikeouts, which does keep Scherzer from being an elite DFS option. Still, he ranks second in THE BAT in both ceiling projection and projected Plus/Minus. That gives him a nice combination of value and upside.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Things have not gone to plan in Grayson Rodriguez’s first MLB season. He’s pitched to a 6.91 ERA across 12 starts, and his 5.72 xERA and 5.28 FIP aren’t significantly better. He was actually sent back down to the minors for a bit before being recalled by the team on July 17th.
Since returning, Rodriguez has looked like a much better pitcher. He’s posted a FIP of 2.88 or better in each of his past two starts, which have come against outstanding offensive teams in the Dodgers and Rays. He hasn’t been rewarded in his traditional numbers yet, but that should come in friendlier matchups.
Friday’s matchup vs. the Yankees definitely qualifies as friendlier. The Yankees’ offense has sorely missed Aaron Judge, dipping to 19th in wRC+ vs. right-handers over the past 30 days. They’re now 21st in runs per game for the year, so they aren’t exactly living up to the “Bronx Bombers” moniker.
Rodriguez is priced at just $6,300 on DraftKings for this matchup, giving him the chance to be one of the best values of the day. He leads all starters in projected Plus/Minus per THE BAT.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
There are some strong options to choose from on this slate, but Kevin Gausman leads the way in terms of pure upside. Gausman is having another brilliant season for the Blue Jays, pitching to a 3.18 ERA and a career-best 11.98 K/9. The second number ranks second among qualified starters this season, trailing only Spencer Strider’s ridiculous 14.56 mark. He has plenty of strikeout upside Friday vs. the Angels, who own the ninth-highest strikeout rate against right-handers this season. He leads the slate with a 7.92 K Prediction, while his 3.7 opponent implied team total and -192 moneyline odds are also strong. The only thing keeping him below Scherzer in our MLB Models is his price tag. If you can fit him in your lineups, he’s an outstanding option.
Bobby Miller is another cog in the seemingly endless machine that is the Dodgers farm system. He entered the year as the No. 32 prospect in baseball per FanGraphs, and he’s delivered from a stuff perspective. He ranks eighth in Stuff+ among pitchers with at least 50 innings this season, and four of his five pitches grade out as above average. It’s only a matter of time before he puts it all together at the MLB level. He’s very affordable at just $7,700 on DraftKings, especially considering his -240 moneyline odds. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries and Vegas data have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.95 (per the Trends tool). The only real concern is his projected ownership, which ranks first on the slate.
Kutter Crawford is another young pitcher who grades out well from a stuff perspective, and he has a lot working for him on Friday. For starters, he’ll be pitching outside of Boston, which is where he’s done his best work this season. He owns a dreadful 6.03 ERA at Fenway Park, but that figure drops to 2.48 on the road. Not only that, he’ll also be pitching in San Francisco, which has historically been one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in baseball. Crawford has also increased his K/9 to 9.90 since the All-Star break while dropping his ERA to 3.60. The Red Sox’s matchup with Logan Webb makes Crawford an underdog, but he’s a very intriguing contrarian option.
Crawford also fares well in our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:
MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in our MLB Models when generated by projected points using THE BAT belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
The Dodgers got off to a slow start this season, but they are back to their usual perch atop the NL West standings. Their lineup may lack some of the star power that it has featured in years past, but they’ve still been extremely productive. They rank second in the league in runs per game, and they’re fourth in wRC+.
They will be on the wrong side of their splits on Friday against left-hander Brandon Williamson. That said, Williamson is bad enough that it shouldn’t matter. He’s pitched to a 5.57 xERA while allowing 1.53 homers per nine innings. Ultimately, the Dodgers lead all teams with a 6.0-run implied team total.
Stacking the top of the Dodgers’ lineup is expensive, and there are some intriguing cheap options available. Kiké Hernandez and Chris Taylor stand out as their top two options in terms of projected Plus/Minus, and they’re available at $2,800 and $3,200 on DraftKings.
However, it’s really tough to avoid their top three hitters. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith have all delivered outstanding production against southpaws this season (via PlateIQ):
Betts has also been insanely productive against left-handers over the past 30 days, increasing his wOBA to .496 and his ISO to an eye-popping .611. If you’re not including Betts, Freeman, and Smith in your Dodgers stacks, you’re not really stacking the Dodgers.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Ramon Laureano OF ($3,200 DraftKings, $3,100 FanDuel) Oakland Athletics at Colorado Rockies (Kyle Freeland)
The A’s are not a team that typically gets much space in DFS columns unless we’re writing about which teams you want to roster opposing batters against. However, a trip to Coors Field changes everything. The A’s are implied for 5.5 runs on Friday, making them extremely viable at their current price tags. Laureano stands out as the best value of the bunch, particularly at $3,200 on DraftKings. He’s currently slated in the No. 5 spot in their projected lineup, and he’ll be on the positive side of his splits vs. Freeland. Laureano has been limited to just 58 games this season due to injury, but he has historically been at his best against southpaws. He owns a 120 wRC+ in that split for his career, so he has the potential to do some damage at Coors.
Alex Kirilloff 1B/OF ($2,700 DraftKings, $3,100 FanDuel) Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals (Brady Singer)
Kirilloff is another batter who stands out as underpriced on DraftKings. The former top prospect has put things together in his age-25 season, posting a 129 wRC+ across 67 games. He’s also been scorching hot to start the second half of the season, increasing his wRC+ to 168 and his ISO to .391. He already has four homers in 11 games in the second half, which is many as he hit in 56 games in the first half of the year. He should be able to continue producing against Singer, who owns a 5.55 ERA for the season.
Andres Gimenez 2B ($4,000 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox (Touki Toussaint)
Gimenez has recently moved up in the Guardians’ lineup, partly due to his success at the dish and partly due to the trade of Amed Rosario. He’s expected to bat second in the lineup on Friday in a plus matchup vs. Toussaint. Toussaint’s 4.08 ERA doesn’t jump off the page, but that figure has increased to 5.40 as a member of the rotation. He was much more effective when coming out of the bullpen earlier this season, and the Guardians are implied for 5.5 runs in this matchup. Gimenez is usable at second base across the industry, but he’s particularly appealing on FanDuel, given his 79% Bargain Rating.
