The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Wednesday features a five game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Spencer Strider ($12,700) Atlanta Braves (-163) at Boston Red Sox
The $12,700 price tag on Strider is the third-highest salary for a pitcher on DraftKings since 2019, with the first and second also belonging to Strider. DraftKings is trying to find a price point for Strider that makes it a tough decision whether to play him — a difficult task due to his absurd dominance.
Strider more than 2X’d his current salary in his last time out, despite allowing four earned runs in six innings. That was because 13 of those 18 outs were strikeouts. This shouldn’t even be surprising for Strider, whose nearly 40% strikeout rate is the best in baseball by a wide margin.
He does have a below-average matchup tonight against a Boston team that ranks top-ten in wRC+ while striking out at a fairly low rate. He’s dominant enough that it probably doesn’t matter, but it makes a fade slightly more viable than usual.
Strider leads all pitchers in the FantasyLabs projections tonight. He is also projecting for fairly low ownership by his standards, making this a “pay up to be contrarian” spot to a degree.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Hogan Harris ($5,300) Oakland A’s (+192) at San Francisco Giants
Hogan Harris is a 26-year-old rookie who’s split time between the rotation and bullpen this season, amassing a combined 6.11 ERA. It sounds pretty bleak when you open with that — but there might just be a case for him today.
Largely due to the matchup against the Giants. San Francisco ranks 29th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching while striking out more than 25% of the time. While Vegas thinks they can get to Hogan, it still raises the odds of a solid game for Harris.
He’s also been better than his ERA indicates. His xERA and FIP are both below 4.50, so he’s been fairly unlucky. On top of that, he threw six innings of two-run baseball against the Astros in his last start. We don’t want to draw too many conclusions from one start, but it’s reasonable to expect a rookie to be progressing as their first season goes on.
The best part about Harris, though, is his price tag. He could be paired with Strider and give you enough room to fit some solid bats or paired with any other pitcher and an all-star team of hitters.
He leads both THE BAT and FantasyLabs models in Pts/Sal.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Carlos Rodon ($9,000) New York Yankees (-152) vs. New York Mets
Rodon has just three starts this season, and truth be told, he’s had a rough go of it. His ERA is over seven, with a pathetic 16.9% strikeout rate. However, he’s coming off two seasons of sub-3.00 ERA and 30% or better strikeout rates, and at just 30 years old should still be in his prime.
Plus, when we dig a bit deeper, Rodon was put in a tough position from the jump. Of his three starts, he faced a top-five team against lefties in the Angels, had one game at Coors, and limited the third team to two runs over 5.1 innings pitched.
The Mets are a fairly soft matchup for lefties, ranking 21st in wRC+ on the season. Rodon should also have a slightly longer pitch count leash this time around, raising his upside even further. His K prediction trails only Strider on the slate and at a far cheaper price tag.
Clearly, we’re banking on a return to form if rostering Rodon today, but the matchup points to that being a somewhat plausible outcome.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Chicago Cubs:
We noted yesterday that the Cubs were too cheap for their likeliest outcome. They put up a solid seven runs, more than paying off their meager price tag. Despite that, they’re still way too cheap tonight, with a similar 4.7-run implied total against the White Sox Lance Lynn ($7,700).
Lynn has a 6.18 ERA this season, and while his leading indicators are better, they still aren’t good. With the Cubs coming in at almost exactly league-average against righties, there’s no reason to think Lynn will outperform those numbers tonight.
Given that it’s just a five-game slate, I expect the Cubs stack to be a bit more popular than it was last night. We can shave off some of that ownership by going with other permutations though. Let’s use the PlateIQ tool to see if any lower-in-the-order hitters look good tonight:
Christopher Morel ($5,000) is the obvious choice here. He’s pricey but has the best overall numbers against righties on the team. Between the salary and his projected number seven spot in the lineup, he’s unlikely to catch too much ownership today.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Giancarlo Stanton OF ($5,000 DraftKings; $3,000 FanDuel) New York Yankees vs. New York Mets (Jose Quintana)
In limited action this season, Stanton has fairly disappointing numbers overall. He’s hitting just .204, though his full-season pace on homers is in the upper 30s. Digging a little deeper, his mediocre numbers are being pulled down heavily by matchups with righties, though.
Against right-handed pitching, Stanton is hitting just .190 with a .672 OPS. Against southpaws, though, he’s hitting a solid .273 with a 1.030 OPS. Those are MVP-caliber numbers, but we’re getting him at a somewhat cheaper price tag due to his struggles against righties.
Obviously, he won’t get all of his at-bats tonight against Quintana, but it’s worth finding the salary to get the three or so he will have.
Andrew Benintendi OF ($2,900 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel) Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs (Marcus Stroman)
On the other end of the outfielder salary spectrum, we have Benintendi, who’s showing up as a huge value on DraftKings today. He has a 71% Bargain Rating and is one of the top Pts/Sal options at the position in THE BAT.
Benintendi is never the most exciting option, but he’s hitting .284 on the season with 11 steals through 95 games. He needs to run to provide much upside, but at his price tag, a mediocre score is more than enough to feel good about him. Plus, he’s the leadoff hitter for an offense implied for 4.5 runs, which is always notable at less than $3,000 on DraftKings.
Ozzie Albies 2B ($5,600 DraftKings; $3,800 FanDuel) Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox (Brayan Bello)
Atlanta leads the evening slate with their 5.4-run implied total, which is even more notable since they’re on the road. Especially in Boston, which features by far the best Park Factor for hitters on the slate.
Most of their top hitters are priced aggressively for the occasion, though, with Ronald Acuna, Matt Olson, Austin Riley, and Sean Murphy all coming in over $6,000 on DraftKings. Albies is slightly cheaper, though, making him a strong option for getting some cheap exposure to the Braves.
He packs plenty of upside in his own right, with 23 home runs on the season, but he also benefits from hitting between all of the aforementioned bats.
He’s the top-rated second baseman in our Tournament Model tonight.
