The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Aaron Civale ($7,200): Pitcher, Cleveland Guardians
With 11 starts under his belt in 2023, Aaron Civale is impressing for the Guardians as an undervalued starter. He is 3-2 on the year with a 2.71 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.
Civale has a +2.02 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games and has allowed more than two earned runs just once since he returned to the rotation on June 2.
PlateIQ shows the matchup is great for Civale against Kansas City. The Royals lineup has a total .147 ISO and .301 wOBA. The low Park Rating also bodes well for Civale to have a standout performance today.
Willi Castro ($2,200): Outfielder, Minnesota Twins
The 26-year-old outfielder is an interesting lottery ticket at the bottom of the salary charts. Over his last 10 games, Willi Castro has an average +3.34 Plus/Minus with five double-digit DraftKings point performances.
On the year, Castro is batting .242/.319/.361 with five home runs, 21 RBI, and 23 stolen bases. Despite his low RBI totals, he excels with runners in scoring position, hitting .310/.434/.452.
The Twins face Seattle right-hander George Kirby in Minnesota. Kirby is 9-8 with a 3.23 ERA in 19 starts. Take a shot on Castro in tournament lineups today.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Zac Gallen ($9,100 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
What a season so far for Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen. Through 21 starts, Gallen is 11-4 with a strong 3.18 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.
Gallen ranks third in the National League with 130.1 innings pitched and sixth with 135 strikeouts. Combine those numbers with one of the lowest walk rates in the league (5.0%), and he has one of the highest ceiling potentials of all pitchers.
His last five starts with mediocre results have dropped his DraftKings salary well below the $10,000 threshold. With low fantasy points and hit projections for the Cardinals lineup today, this is a good spot to bet on a bounce-back performance from Gallen.
Hitter
Fernando Tatis Jr. ($6,500 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Fernando Tatis Jr. has picked up where he left off at the plate after his suspension. This year, he is swatting .280/.339/.504 with 17 home runs, 50 RBI, and 15 stolen bags.
With rankings in the top-7% of the league in xwOBA and average exit velocity, Tatis Jr. has the potential for fantasy boom games on a nightly basis. He has nine 20+ DraftKings point games so far on the season.
Number ten could easily come today against veteran lefty Rich Hill and the Pirates. In his 19th major league season, Hill is 7-9 with a 4.84 ERA and has already allowed 13 long bombs.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Alex Cobb ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel) vs. Oakland Athletics
Having a banner season in San Francisco, Alex Cobb is looking to improve on a 6-3 record today against the lowly Athletics. Cobb comes in with an impressive 3.15 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 18 starts this season.
Cobb looks to rebound after a rough last start in Cincinnati. Prior to that, he had two straight fantasy boom games over 30 DraftKings points.
Oakland has one of the lowest implied run totals on the slate with a very low 0.6 home run projection and .137 team ISO. This should be a get-right game for Cobb.
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Hitters
Steven Kwan ($3,800 DraftKings, $3,100 FanDuel) vs. Kansas City Royals
Steven Kwan has been on a tear lately, with an average +5.42 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. The Guardians outfielder has six double-digit DraftKings performances in his last eight games, including two 30+ point explosions.
On the season, Kwan is hitting .271/.342/.373. After the All-Star break, he is swatting .341/.396/.568 with two homers, four doubles, and seven RBI.
Today, he faces Royals veteran hurler Zack Greinke. Greinke is 1-10 with a 5.42 ERA on the year. Stay in the flames with Kwan today.
CJ Abrams ($3,500 DraftKings, $3,200 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Rockies
In 2023, CJ Abrams is hitting .256/.303/.429 with 10 home runs and 40 RBI. He adds fantasy points on the base paths with 19 stolen bags.
The Nationals infielder has multi-hit results in over half of his July games and two homers in his last four.
Today, the Nationals face Colorado’s Austin Gomber on the hill. Gomber is 8-8 with a 6.18 ERA on the season. This is a good spot for Abrams to continue his July hot streak.
