The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features a 14-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Bryan Woo ($7,900) Seattle Mariners (-127) vs. Minnesota Twins
We’re going right back to the well against the Twins with a similar logic as yesterday’s selection of Logan Gilbert. It’s an even better setup today, with Woo coming in at nearly $2,000 cheaper, despite having better overall numbers on the season.
We’ve talked extensively about the Twins league-leading strikeout rate against righties, which is an exciting prospect with Woo on the mound. The rookie has an excellent 30.5% strikeout rate so far this season. While it’s a bit high relative to his swinging strike rate, he has a strong chance of sustaining or improving it against Minnesota.
Where he’s been lucky in strikeouts, he’s been unlucky in run prevention. His 3.63 ERA is nearly a full run higher than his 2.78 xERA, and his other ERA predictors are also well below his actual ERA. While he’s still a bit risky against the solid overall offense of the Twins, he’s due for some positive regression in the run prevention department.
Detached from his name, we’d expect to pay around $10,000 for a pitcher with Woo’s numbers and matchup on a typical day. Getting him at under $8,000 is a steal, and he leads THE BAT projections in both median and Pts/Sal, making him a near must-play.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Carlos Carrasco ($6,200) New York Mets (-117) vs. Chicago White Sox
Carrasco had a rough start to the season but seems to have hit his stride in recent performances. He’s hit double-digit fantasy points in each of his last three outings, culminating in a 27.6-point game against a tough Diamondbacks lineup his last time out.
Things should be somewhat easier for him this time against the White Sox. They rank 28th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching, with a somewhat high strikeout rate as well. While Carrasco has been inconsistent this year, he certainly still has the stuff to excel in that matchup.
While he doesn’t have great Vegas numbers, we can only expect so much from a pitcher in his price range. Another dominant performance is unlikely, but scoring in the low-to-mid teens would be more than enough at his price point. He trails only Woo in Pts/Sal projection in THE BAT.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Hunter Brown ($8,100) Houston Astros (TBD) at Colorado Rockies
Odds aren’t yet available for the Astros game in Colorado today, but it’s fairly safe to say Brown and the Astros will be huge favorites against the Rockies, and whatever bullpen arm ends up getting the start. That’s partially because of the Astros offense, of course, but Brown plays a big part in it.
Officially still a rookie, Brown made his debut in 2022 and has a combined MLB ERA of 3.54 through 19 starts. More importantly for DFS, his strikeout rate is 28%. He’s also well-suited for a start at Coors Field, with an excellent 57.4% ground ball rate since making his debut.
While ownership projections will come into focus more once we have betting data, it’s also safe to say the location of this game will keep Brown at reasonable levels. Colorado is a bad offense, though, so the thin air and big dimensions at Coors might not matter — it doesn’t matter how well the ball carries if you don’t hit it.
He’s an excellent GPP play today, but check back to our models once lineups are released for a firmer projection of both ownership and points.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the San Francisco Giants:
At least until we have a total on the Astros, the Giants are the top stack for the second day in a row. Their six-run total trails only the Braves as they take on the Reds at Coors Field East in Cincinnati.
They let us down a bit yesterday, with just two runs in seven innings of a suspended game. Both those runs came on homers, though, so the DFS scores were a bit better than the run totals. The weather should be better today, so we’re likely to get a full nine innings to work with.
As was the case yesterday, they’re simply too cheap as a team, given their excellent implied total. If you’re unwilling to invest this heavily in a mediocre offense — or want to save space for some Astros — our PlateIQ tool can help pick out the best one-offs or mini-stacks:
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Yainer Diaz C ($4,400 DraftKings; $3,200 FanDuel) Houston Astros at Colorado Rockies (Matt Koch)
Consider this more of a general Astros post, as they’re sure to have the slate’s best total in Colorado against Koch/the Rockies bullpen. Diaz is a great one-off play as well, though, leading THE BAT projections for catchers despite being only the fifth-most expensive option.
Diaz already has 10 home runs through 54 games, with a profile that plays well to Coors Field — namely, his 41.4% fly ball rate that’s well above league average. That makes him a high-upside play at a reasonable price, which is a big edge at a position where it’s hard to find production.
Oswald Peraza 2B/3B ($2,800 DraftKings; $2,300 FanDuel) New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels (Patrick Sandoval)
Peraza has just over 30 games in the big leagues, with a solid .277 batting average. He’s added a home run and six steals, solid numbers for such a limited amount of playing time. That’s not the major selling point today, though. He’s expected to lead off for the Yankees on the road in Los Angeles, so he should have plenty of trips to the plate tonight.
Getting a player with positional flexibility and the first spot in the lineup at his price tag is always worth noting. He leads THE BAT’s projections in Pts/Sal at both second and third base on both DFS sites tonight.
Ronald Acuna OF ($6,400 DraftKings; $4,700 FanDuel) Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Zach Davies)
You probably don’t need to hear about how good Acuna’s been this season. He’s -425 against the field to win NL MVP this season and averaging just under 13 DraftKings points per contest.
That makes including him here fairly easy, but he’s of special interest tonight. With the huge total for the Giants and the Astros playing at Coors, he could go overlooked by the field at large — at least by his standards. That makes him worth a look in GPPs since those opportunities don’t come often.
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