The Open Championship PGA DFS Stats Preview: Course Fits, GPP Picks, and Values

The 2023 Open Championship returns to Royal Liverpool Golf Club to play the 151st edition of the tournament.

The last time the Open Championship was held at Royal Liverpool, Rory McIlroy emerged victorious. The Northern Irishman was in control for much of the tournament and finished two strokes clear of chasers Rickie Fowler and Sergio Garcia.

Royal Liverpool Golf Club is located in Wirral in Merseyside, England, in the small town of “Hoylake”. Hoylake is the name most golf fans now use to refer to the course, which was founded in 1869. 2023 will mark the 13th time the club will host the Open Championship.

Hoylake is a magnificent par 71 that now measures 7,383 yards (73 yards longer than 2014), making it a relatively short major championship track by today’s standards. The greens are a mix comprised of bentgrass, poa annua, and fescue. As usual, Hoylake’s difficulty will be largely impacted by the weather.

There have been changes made to the course since we last saw it in 2014. In addition to the 73 yards of extra yardage, it’s been changed from a par 72 to a par 71, and the par-3 17th is brand new. Additionally, the 10th hold has been changed from a 532-yard par-5 to a 507-yard par-4.

There are 156 players in the field this week, with the top 70 and ties making it to the weekend. As expected, almost all of the world’s top players will be in attendance this week seeking a highly coveted Claret Jug.

For GPP contests on DraftKings, I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.

And if you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

For large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

This analysis may reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

Strokes Gained: Approach

The most important statistic this week is Strokes Gained: Approach. Approach play is typically the best way to measure current form, and players don’t win the Open Championship out of nowhere. The winner this week will likely be a player who’s coming into the week playing well.

High-end target: Scottie Scheffler — $12,500 (1st in Strokes Gained: Approach)
Mid-range target: Collin Morikawa — $9,600 (5th in Strokes Gained: Approach)
Value target: Gary Woodland — $7,100 (7th in Strokes Gained: Approach)

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee

Last year, Cameron Smith won the Open Championship at St. Andrews without having to be incredibly precise off the tee. I don’t believe that will be the case at Hoylake this week. Players will be asking for trouble if they miss too many fairways around this place. Both Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy won at Royal Liverpool by playing out of the fairway.

High-end target: Scottie Scheffler — $12,500 (1st Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee)
Mid-range target: Patrick Cantlay— $9,900 (2nd Strokes Gained: Off-the-tee)
Value target: Corey Conners — $7,700 (7th Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee)

Greens In Regulation: Gained

I strongly believe the best ball strikers will reign supreme this week at Hoylake. The Open Championship typically asks for creativity and shot-making, and it may again this year, but I believe traditional ball strikers who are efficient from tee to green will have a major advantage in this major.

High-end target: Scottie Scheffler— $12,500 (1st Greens In Regulation: Gained)
Mid-range target: Rickie Fowler — $9,800 (8th Greens In Regulation: Gained)
Value target: Corey Conners — $7,700 (4th Greens In Regulation: Gained)

Strokes Gained: Par 5

Although there are now only three par 5s at Hoylake, they are remarkably important. In 2014, we saw Rory McIlroy do the majority of his scoring on the par 5s. It’s likely that the winning score this week will be somewhere between fifteen and twenty under par. Therefore it’s an absolute necessity that players take advantage of the par 5s if they want to raise the claret jug on Sunday.

High-end target: Jon Rahm — $11,200 (7th Strokes Gained: Par 5)
Mid-range target: Rickie Fowler — $9,800 (1st Strokes Gained: Par 5)
Value target: Andrew Putnam — $6,500 (3rd Strokes Gained: Par 5)

Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (Windy Conditions)

Wind is always going to be a factor when playing in an Open Championship, especially at Hoylake. Even if the wind speed doesn’t get extremely high, it will still be a factor in club selection and execution. Players who have experience playing in windy conditions will have an advantage this week.

High-end target: Jon Rahm — $11,200 (3rd Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (Windy Conditions)
Mid-range target: Patrick Cantlay— $9,900 (9th Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (Windy Conditions)
Value target: Keegan Bradley — $7,600 (1st Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (Windy Conditions)

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