The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Close out the weekend with an interesting 10-game slate starting at 1:35 p.m ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Zack Wheeler ($9,600) Philadelphia Phillies (-156) vs. San Diego Padres
With extra rest from the All-Star break, Zack Wheeler is the highest-rated pitcher on the slate. Wheeler is 7-4 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.
He sputtered over his last three starts before the break, giving up 12 runs in 16.1 total innings. Prior to that, he posted four 20+ DraftKings fantasy games in a five-game span. He showed his ceiling potential May 27 with eight shutout innings, 12 strikeouts and 43 DraftKings points.
PlateIQ shows the Padres lineup features just two high-ISO and three high-wOBA hitters Sunday. Additionally, Wheeler has an impressive 5.4% barrel rate and averages over 100 pitches per game this season.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Kutter Crawford ($5,500) Boston Red Sox (+120) at Chicago Cubs
In his second season as a part-time starter, Kutter Crawford is 3-4 with a 4.11 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in nine starts.
Crawford has a career-best .307 wOBA and .422 xSLG on the season. He excels against lefties with a 28.7 K% and .167 ISO. He has a high 12.6% swinging strike rate against all hitters and a decent 5.2% walk rate.
At $5,500, Crawford is on the low end of the salary chart for pitching options Sunday. He has a high bargain rating and three positive Plus/Minus games out of his last four outings. The ceiling is not high, but Crawford is a useful fantasy option in lineups today.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Jack Flaherty ($6,900) St. Louis Cardinals (-190) vs. Washington Nationals
Vegas loves the Cardinals and Jack Flaherty to overwhelm the Nationals on Sunday. Washington has one of the lowest implied totals on the slate.
The 27-year-old righty is 6-5 with a 4.27 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 17 starts this season. Those numbers are above his career averages, but he seems to have found a groove going into the break with two scoreless starts over 12.2 innings.
The Nationals’ lackluster lineup provides a lot of fantasy potential for Flaherty on Sunday. Washington has a low home run projection and only one High ISO batter in Jeimer Candelario.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Model when generated by projected points belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers:
The Brewers are looking for a fourth-straight shutout victory over the Reds on Sunday in Cincinnati. This affordable stack provides some upside against Reds starter Ben Lively and room to add extra studs in the lineup.
Christian Yelich leads the stack in salary and production. He is batting .281/.372/.457 on the season with 12 home runs and 47 RBIs. He has a team-high .386 wOBA and five games with double-digit DraftKings points so far in July.
Shortstop Willy Adames just edges catcher William Contreras in the salary rankings. Adames has a strong .204 ISO from his 16 home runs on the season. On the other hand, Contreras has a lower ISO, but he’s batting .447 in July with three straight multi-hit games.
Raimel Tapia and Jesse Winker round out the stack as low-cost dart throws with a strong matchup against Lively. On the season, Lively is 4-5 with a 3.83 ERA in eight starts. He allows a sky-high 31.8% line-drive rate and 43.7 hard hit %. Vegas expects this game to be an offensive duel.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters who stand out.
George Springer OF ($4,900 DraftKings, $3,300 FanDuel) Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Tommy Henry)
The highest-rated hitter on the slate is Blue Jays righty George Springer, despite a potential tough pitching matchup.
Springer is batting .272/.335/.425 on the season with 13 home runs, 41 RBIs, and 13 stolen bases. He is batting .333 in July and has a +1.97 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.
In his sophomore season, the 25-year-old Tommy Henry is having a strong year with a 5-1 record and 3.75 ERA. He has a 30.9 hard hit % and has allowed two earned runs combined over his last three starts.
Brandon Lowe 2B ($4,200 DraftKings, $2,900 FanDuel) Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals (Brady Singer)
Brandon Lowe returned to the Rays lineup on July 4 after missing 26 games with a herniated disk. The veteran second baseman is having a bit of a down year at the plate, batting .214/.315/.411 on the season.
Lowe prefers right-handed pitching, with a .316 wOBA and .175 ISO against righties. He gets a right-hander on the mound in Brady Singer on Sunday. Singer is 5-8 with a 5.80 ERA and 1.55 WHIP on the season. His 18.1 K% is the lowest of his career.
You can also target Singer by taking the under on his strikeout prop on PrizePicks. Be sure to check out all the pick’ems PrizePicks has to offer with PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 deposit match.
Gunnar Henderson 3B/SS ($4,700 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins (Steven Okert)
In his first full Major League season, Gunnar Henderson is batting .245/.343/.460. He has a 51.6 hard hit % in the top 8% of all Major League hitters.
Henderson showed his high ceiling potential on July 6 with four hits, two home runs, and five RBIs in a 14-1 win over the Yankees. His 42 DraftKings points were the highest single-game mark of his young career.
He faces left-hander Steven Okert, who is making his first start of the season for the Marlins on Sunday. Okert is 3-0 with a 2.43 ERA in 37 relief appearances this year. Expect multiple pitchers to take the hill for Miami in a bullpen game.
