The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
David Hamilton ($2,200): Shortstop, Boston Red Sox
Hamilton’s introduction to the MLB hasn’t been favorable. The Boston Red Sox shortstop has just four hits in 32 plate appearances and a .222 slugging percentage. But that means there’s only one way for Hamilton to go, and we expect him to start his ascent Thursday against the Texas Rangers.
Hamilton is coming off one of his best games in the majors. The rookie put up 7.0 fantasy points in last night’s win over the visiting Rangers, swatting a double and adding a walk. Not surprisingly, all four of Hamilton’s hits have come off fastballs, setting the stage for a potential season-best performance against Nathan Eovaldi. The Rangers pitcher turns to his heater 37.9% of the time, assuring Hamilton will have some pitches to look at.
As with most value picks, there’s a contrarian approach with Hamilton. Nevertheless, his recent effort should be a sign of things to come as he gets acclimated to the bigs, which should start to yield more robust run production. Hamilton leads our Points/Salary rankings and is our top value.
Colton Cowser ($2,000): Outfield, Baltimore Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles have a stable of young prospects ready to be impact players in the MLB. We’ve seen what their regulars bring to the table, but last night we got our first taste of what Cowser has to offer.
Cowser made his major league debut last night against the New York Yankees. Things couldn’t have gone much better for the outfielder, as Cowser went 1-for-3 at the plate, with one run scored, one RBI, and a walk. One game is far too small of a sample size to draw any meaningful conclusions. Still, it was an impressive performance from Cowser, who had one hard-hit ball and an expected slugging percentage of .659.
He’s poised to continue the torrid start to his career against Luis Severino. Severino has been knocked around this season, posting a .534 expected slugging percentage and 6.94 expected ERA, both of which rank in the 4th percentile or worse. Cowser should have no problem replicating Wednesday’s effort against the Yankees.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Ronel Blanco ($6,800 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel) vs. Seattle Mariners
Thursday’s pitching options aren’t particularly appealing. However, according to our projections, Blanco shines brighter than the rest and has one of the lowest salaries on the docket.
Blanco was recently promoted to the starting rotation. His first nine appearances came out of the bullpen, lasting 12.0 innings. Since being recalled at the start of June, the righty has made five starts, most of which have been productive outings. Blanco has limited opponents to three or fewer earned runs in four of the five contests while pitching into the sixth inning in all but once.
He’ll have a chance to build off that momentum Thursday against the Seattle Mariners. The M’s were blanked last night in San Francisco and are on no rest for tonight’s series opener. As noted yesterday, the Mariners are hapless at the plate, accumulating the seventh-worst OPS and third-most Ks.
Blanco has held teams to four or fewer hits in three of his past four while punching out at least five in four of five. He’s the median and ceiling leader in our aggregate projections and should bury the lifeless Mariners’ bats.
Hitter
Jose Ramirez ($6,000 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel) vs. Kansas City Royals
The Cleveland Guardians’ offense would be much worse without Ramirez. The former MVP runner-up leads the team in nearly every offensive category, including slugging percentage, home runs, and extra-base hits. Moreover, he ranks second in runs and RBI, cementing himself as the top batter in the lineup. We expect this peacock to flash his brilliance in Thursday’s series opener against the Kansas City Royals.
Ramirez’s traditional stats are backed up with an elite hitter’s profile. The four-time Silver Slugger ranks in the 82nd percentile with a .476 expected slugging percentage. His .288 expected batting average also puts him among the top 8% of hitters in the MLB.
He’ll have a chance to improve his standing tonight against Jordan Lyles. The Kansas City Royals pitcher has been a gas can this year, getting torched virtually every time he steps onto the mound. Lyles ranks in the 13th percentile or worse in expected slugging percentage and barrel rate, resulting in a 6.68 ERA and 1.9 home runs per nine innings.
The Guardians were handcuffed by the Atlanta Braves this week but are due for a breakout performance. Ramirez will lead the charge as he lives up to his fantasy ceiling and sterling PlateIQ against the Royals.
Ramirez also stands out as a slight value using our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Julio Urias ($9,400 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Los Angeles Dodgers need more out of their starting pitching if they hope to stay afloat in the NL West. That starts with Urias, who entered the year as a frontrunner for the NL Cy Young, but has failed to live up to expectations. Although he’s faltered over his past few starts, it’s time for the pendulum to swing in the opposite direction.
Through his first four starts of the season, Urias was virtually untouchable. The southpaw was 3-1 with a 1.90 ERA and 1.01 walks and hits per inning pitched. Things have unraveled since then, including a stint on the injured list, but we’re betting he bottomed out after his last start. Urias’ expected ERA is below actual, implying he’s a progression candidate, and he continues to command the strike zone with his four-pitch repertoire. He has a 21.9% whiff rate or better on all his offerings and ranks in the 80th percentile in chase rate.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are an underwhelming team offensively and have struggled against lefties all season. This could be the turning point in Urias’ season as he works his way back into Cy Young-worthy form.
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Hitters
Corey Seager ($6,400 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) vs. Boston Red Sox
There are no easy outs in the Rangers lineup. The team leads the majors in runs scored, ranking second in OPS and sixth in homers. As expected, they have seven hitters with a .803 OPS or better. Seager stands atop the heap with an MVP-caliber 1.023 mark and has the underlying metrics supporting ongoing production.
Seager’s analytics put him among the best in the game. He ranks in the 100th percentile in expected batting average and 99th percentile in expected slugging percentage, expected weighted on-base average, and average exit velocity. Further, his hard-hit and barrel rates put him in the 98th and 97th percentile, respectively.
The Rangers shortstop has made those metrics work in his favor of late, with Seager coming into Thursday’s inter-divisional battle on an eight-game hitting streak. Across that sample, Seager has totaled 13 hits, five doubles, eight runs, and four RBI. We’re anticipating more of the same as the Rangers invade hitter-friendly Fenway Park.
Andres Gimenez ($4,000 DraftKings, $2,700 FanDuel) vs. Kansas City Royals
The appeal of swinging against Lyles has led us to another unsuspecting Guardians batter. Gimenez has hits in five straight games and should continue his scorching pace Thursday against the Royals.
It’s not just base hits that are working for Gimenez right now. The second baseman is crushing balls, with three of his last six hits going for extra bases. Predictably, improved plate performance correlates with inflated run production, as Gimenez has accounted for seven runs over the five-game sample, including three RBI and four runs scored.
Lastly, Gimenez adds value on the base path. The speedster already has three stolen bags this month and has only been caught stealing three times in 13 attempts. For many of the same reasons Ramirez should thrive, Gimenez projects as a top-performing hitter at an undervalued price.
