The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Triston Casas ($2,300): First Base, Boston Red Sox
Triston Casas’ MLB career didn’t get off to a great start. The highly-touted prospect had an OPS below .600 until the second week in May, with sub-optimal run production; however, the Boston Red Sox first baseman has turned a corner since then, elevating his season mark to .720. Casas’ salary hasn’t caught up to reflect his fantasy potential, making him a bargain again on today’s slate.
June was Casas’ most productive month in the majors. The former first-round pick ended the month with .375 on-base and .476 slugging percentages, resulting in an All-Star-worthy .851 OPS. Predictably, the more robust plate appearances yielded improved run production, with Casas driving in 12 and coming around to score seven times.
We’re anticipating ongoing success from Casas, who still remains well off his expected slugging percentage. His 47.6% hard-hit rate and 13.3% barrel percentage have resulted in a .449 slugging percentage, a benchmark that he’s 54 points short of. Casas’ June stats are just a glimpse of what the slugger has to offer over the rest of the campaign.
Tyler Freeman ($2,200): Second/Third Base, Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians infielder Tyler Freeman has been used intermittently this season. The 24-year-old has appeared in 27 games, accumulating just 68 plate appearances, while he tries to become a more regular contributor for the AL Central squad. Given his recent performance, we should expect a heavy dose of Freeman moving forward.
Hits come in bunches for the former 71st-overall draft pick. Freeman has seven multi-hit efforts this season, representing 14 of his 18 hits. Likewise, we’ve seen a surge in extra-base hits more recently, with four of his last ten knocks going for a double. That’s helped him keep his slugging percentage around the .400 mark and maintain his spot in the lineup.
Freeman is coming off a two-hit effort in last night’s win over the Atlanta Braves. He’ll have a chance to maintain that standard against Mike Soroka, who is giving up an 11.3% barrel rate and 2.9 home runs per nine innings. Freeman should only strengthen his grip on becoming a more prominent part of the Guardians’ lineup.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Pablo Lopez ($10,100 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel) vs. Kansas City Royals
As usual, pitching has been fundamental to the Minnesota Twins’ success. Pablo Lopez landed in friendly Minnesota off a successful stint with the Miami Marlins and hasn’t skipped a beat with his new squad. He gets to pick on the lowly Kansas City Royals, amplifying his fantasy ceiling on Wednesday.
Most notably, Lopez has elevated his strikeout metrics in the American League. The hard-throwing righty’s K/9 rate is up to a career-best 11.1, inflating his strikeout percentage to 29.3%. Moreover, he’s saved his best stuff for the dog days of summer, as Lopez has sat down 34 batters over his last 24.1 innings pitched for a 13.1 K/9.
The Royals have been one of the worst-hitting teams in the bigs this year. KC ranks third-last in OPS, second-last in runs scored, and has compiled the eighth-most strikeouts. Sadly, those stats have fallen even further more recently, with the Royals striking out 55 times over their past six outings.
Lopez has the underlying metrics validating ongoing success. The 27-year-old has a devastating five-pitch mix, inducing a 36.0% chase rate and putting him in the top 4% of MLB pitchers. That’s contributing to a top-tier whiff rate and expected ERA, making Lopez a threat every time he’s toeing the rubber. Our projections show Lopez should end the night as the top-producing pitcher.
Hitter
Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6,700 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) vs. Cleveland Guardians
There is nothing Ronald Acuna Jr. can’t do. The NL MVP frontrunner has been the best hitter on the Senior Circuit, putting together a league-leading 1.013 OPS, which continues to climb. Acuna Jr. will have the chance to bolster his resume with another strong showing against Cal Quantrill and the Guardians.
The Braves outfielder enters Wednesday’s inter-league showdown on a 15-game hitting streak. Across that span, Acuna Jr. has totaled 23 hits, 17 runs, and nine RBI. However, his fantasy value has multiple dimensions and isn’t limited to run production.
Acuna Jr. has been a menace on the base paths, stealing 41 bags on the year, 11 of which have come over his previous 15 contests. As reflected in his elite slugging percentage, Acuna Jr. has also leveled up his power stroke, swatting 21 homers and 46 extra-base hits. His standing in the 100th percentile in expected slugging percentage supports that his metrics are coming from a sustainable place.
Every layer of our projections supports that Acuna Jr. will continue his assault on opponents. He leads our median and ceiling projections and also has a glowing PlateIQ profile. Acuna Jr. will feast on Quantrill’s sub-optimal offerings as he ends the day with another sterling performance.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Alex Cobb ($8,600 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel) vs. Seattle Mariners
Even after all these years, Alex Cobb is showing that he’s got plenty left in the tank. The San Francisco Giants pitcher has been a stabilizing force at the front of the rotation and should build off his recent string of successes.
Cobb has effectively contained opponents over his recent sample, limiting three of his last four opponents to two or fewer earned runs. Extending the lens further back reveals a similar standard throughout the campaign. The veteran righty has allowed more than three earned runs just twice this season. Granted, he’s pitched past the fifth inning six times in 15 starts, but that hasn’t come at the expense of his strikeout metrics. Cobb has 22 punchouts over his 21.2 innings.
The Seattle Mariners have been one of the most free-swinging teams in the majors. The M’s have compiled the third-most Ks and seventh-worst OPS. Cobb’s best efforts have come at home, with a minuscule 1.43 ERA and a 3-1 record. His salary doesn’t reflect his ceiling, making him an undervalued asset tonight.
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Hitters
George Springer ($4,800 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) vs. Chicago White Sox
The Toronto Blue Jays took Tuesday’s series opener against the Chicago White Sox, improving their standing in the American League playoff race. Although George Springer didn’t factor into the action yesterday, he projects as a top fantasy play on Wednesday.
Springer has rounded into his typical form recently. The two-time Silver Slugger has seven multi-hit efforts over his last 15 appearances, elevating his slugging percentage to a season-best .422 along the way. Thanks to renewed power at the dish, he’s been hovering around that benchmark for the past two weeks. Four of Springer’s last four hits have gone for extras, including two homers.
Lance Lynn takes to the mound for Wednesday’s encounter amid a downturn in his performance. The 36-year-old has been tagged for 20 earned runs over his last five starts, spanning 28.2 innings. Springer and the Jays will add to those woes tonight at Guaranteed Rate Field.
Freddie Freeman ($6,100 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Los Angeles Dodgers are up to their usual antics, relying on their bats to keep them competitive in the NL West. It hasn’t resulted in more wins for the playoff hopefuls, but it has brought out the best in Freddie Freeman.
The Dodgers first baseman has recaptured his MVP-caliber form. Freeman has the best slugging percentage since the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign and is on pace for the third-best run production of his career. Between runs and RBI, Freeman is accounting for 1.4 runs per game, above his career average of 1.2,
Freeman has maintained that standard over his recent sample, recording hits in eight of his last nine games. As expected, his scoring hasn’t waned, with Freeman coming around to score five times while driving in seven. Freeman can tee off any pitch, leaving Osvaldo Bido nowhere to hide with his fastball, sinker, or slider.
