The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features an eight-game slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Aaron Nola ($10,400) Philadelphia Phillies (+120) at Tampa Bay Rays
Nola is in a difficult spot today. He’s taking on the Rays, who’ve been the best offense in baseball this season, both specifically against righties and overall. However, he’s also arguably the best pitcher on the slate. That makes this a crucial decision point today: Do we trust good pitching to beat good hitting?
Both projection sets say that we should. Nola leads both THE BAT and FantasyLabs projections for median and today. He doesn’t have great Vegas numbers in an absolute sense — but given the difficulty of the matchup, his +120 moneyline odds and the Rays’ 4.3-run implied total aren’t bad at all.
His numbers are even better if we dig a bit deeper. Tampa’s first five inning total is set at 2.5, with the under being favored. That suggests most of the damage should come against the Phillies bullpen, not Nola.
While Nola won’t be a sleeper pick today by any stretch, he’s also expected to come at a bit of an ownership discount by his standards. That’s another reason to consider him today since those opportunities don’t come often — and there are not really any true “must play” arms today.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Kenta Maeda ($7,100) Minnesota Twins (-190) vs. Kansas City Royals
Provided they’re cheap enough to not qualify for the “stud pick” category, righties against the Royals are effectively the default option at value pick most days. That’s due to the Royals’ dreadful 79 wRC+ against right-handed pitching and their top-five strikeout rate.
Maeda is no exception to that rule. While his numbers look rough at first glance this season — 6.23 ERA and an unimpressive 23% strikeout rate — he’s actually been much better. All of his ERA predictors are in the low fours at worst, and he’s operating with a small enough sample size (26 innings) that he’s likely to regress to those numbers sooner than later.
His 23% strikeout rate is also misleading, as his 12.1% swinging strike rate should translate to a mid-20s punchout number. While he’s been trending down the past few seasons, the lowest full-season mark of his career to date is 24.9%.
All of this puts him in an excellent position to realize some positive regression today against the worst lineup in baseball against righties. He leads THE BAT in Pts/Sal projection.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Zach Eflin ($10,700) Tampa Bay Rays (-145) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
I’m surprised to see the relative ownership projections between Eflin and Nola today. Eflin and his team are favored as well as at home, and yet he’s expected to be roughly half as popular as Nola.
What makes it even more curious is that Eflin has the better numbers of the pair, with a 3.29 ERA and 25.6% strikeout rate on the season. While his ERA is more or less in line with his ERA predictors, the latter numbers are all actually slightly lower. Eflin is also averaging over six innings per start, an impressive figure these days.
Philadelphia isn’t an especially difficult matchup for righties, either. Their 101 wRC+ is just a tick better than the league average mark, and they also strike out at a slightly higher clip than the Rays. Everything is pointing towards Eflin being the better play in this game.
While he’s a bit more expensive, the $300 difference isn’t enough for me to take the ownership hit on Nola for GPPs. I can see a case for trusting the projections — which prefer Nola — in cash games, but Eflin is clearly the superior tournament option today.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Houston Astros:
Their game against the Rockies is in Houston, not at Coors Field, but you wouldn’t know it based on their implied total. At 5.6 runs, the Astros are one of just two teams implied for more than five runs today as they take on Kyle Freeland ($5,600) in Houston.
Matchups against left-handed pitchers have been favorable to Houston this season. They rank eighth in the big leagues with a 108 wRC+ against southpaws, while coming in at 15th against righties. Freeland isn’t just any lefty, either. He has a 4.88 ERA, which is remarkably lower than his (ballpark-adjusted) xERA and xFIP numbers.
That’s notable for a starter who pitches roughly half of his games at Coors Field since it means Freeland has been lucky enough this season to make up for his home ballpark. Expect that luck to run out tonight against a tough Astros lineup.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Nolan Arenado 3B ($5,000 DraftKings; $3,300 FanDuel) St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins (Jesus Luzardo)
One of the reasons I didn’t include Jesus Luzardo ($10,300) as one of the recommended pitchers today — despite his solid projections — is the solid platoon splits held by many of the Cardinals hitters against lefties. While Luzardo is a tough matchup, some of the top bats on the Cardinals have historically feasted on lefty pitching, as highlighted by our PlateIQ tool:
Clearly, Arenado stands out as the top option — though he’s not the only one with excellent splits against southpaws. The Cardinals could be a sneaky stack against the chalky Luzardo today in big tournaments.
Tommy Pham OF ($3,200 DraftKings; $3,100 FanDuel) New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks (Zach Davies)
I’m not sure what’s going on with Pham’s price on DraftKings. He’s super cheap, despite his .295 batting average and .892 OPS on the season — with an additional nine steals for good measure.
He’s projecting very well today, as the number two hitter for a Mets team implied for a solid 4.7 runs on the road. They also have a winnable pitching matchup against Zach Davies ($5,400), who comes in with an ERA over six.
Broadly speaking, DraftKings tends to be more “right” with their pricing than FanDuel, but Pham is an exception. He has a 71% Bargain Rating and makes for an excellent play in all contest types, thanks to his solid median and ceiling combination.
DJ LeMahieu 1B/2B/3B ($3,100 DraftKings; $2,500 FanDuel) New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles (Kyle Gibson)
For evidence of DraftKings pricing algorithm being sharper, as I alluded to above, I present LeMahieu. He’s set to lead off for the Yankees, who have a 4.7-run total at home against the Orioles.
While LeMahieu has underperformed this season with a .221 batting average, a good chunk of that can be explained by his BABIP. At just .273, it’s a full 60 points below his career average. While that career number is a bit inflated, thanks to playing for the Rockies, he’s still averaged well above .300 during his five seasons in the Bronx.
He holds a solid 60% bargain rating on FanDuel, where he’s also eligible at three positions, further increasing his value. On DraftKings, he’s listed only at second and third base.
